Simple For Arsenal, Not So For Arsene

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Arsenal
Simple enough now - the top four is Arsenal's only goal. They have a run of six very winnable fixtures in the Premier League before they face Manchester United on April 28 - Swansea away on Saturday, then Reading at home, West Brom away, Norwich and Everton at home then Fulham away.

A haul of 16-18 points from that lot is not an unreasonable or especially unrealistic ask and it's a haul that will put them right back in the Champions League chase.


The Arsenal defence
Your reaction to Arsene Wenger's decision to drop Thomas Vermaelen for the win over Bayern Munich probably depends on your view of the Frenchman. It was either a ruthless decision, recognising the Belgian's form and disregarding his status as club captain, or a belated call that should have come much sooner, recognising his form and disregarding his status as club captain way after everyone else.

Whatever the motivation, it seemed to work, with Laurent Koscielny and Per Mertesacker having their best games in some time. The question now will be whether Wenger persists with this partnership for the trip to Swansea on Saturday. The pair have played together 12 times this season, but usually when Vermaelen has been required at left-back or been injured, rather than out of central defensive preference. They have only lost one of those games (the first leg against Bayern), but what that tells us about the duo isn't clear, given Arsenal have conceded 15 goals in those games and only kept four clean sheets.

It should be a reasonably simple decision - Vermaelen has been poor this season, and with the relative luxury of two competent specialist left-backs, Wenger doesn't need to use the out-of-form Belgian in an unfamiliar position.

What isn't quite so simple a decision is who will play in goal. Lukasz Fabianski was also impressive in Bavaria, but one shouldn't forget who this chap is. One good game doesn't make, etc and so on. Wojciech Szczesny may not have been the most impressive performer this season, but he's still very highly regarded at Arsenal. And yet, we can only assume he was dropped for the Bayern game and probably beyond, because to 'rest' him for a fixture as big as that would be...well, strange.

Presumably therefore Fabianski will play, but perhaps whether he should is a different matter. Any Arsenal fans who demanded the withdrawal of Szczesny might want to be careful what they wish for.


Reading
You've probably already read many words about how silly/disgraceful/foolhardy Reading were to dismiss Brian McDermott, but sit tight because you're about to get some more.

Even though Reading perhaps owed McDermott a little more after their remarkable promotion, and few could expect much more than just about being in touch with the survival race, given the squad currently at the Madejski, it wasn't the actual dismissal that made no sense. It wasn't even the timing, which in itself was admittedly fairly stupid with only nine games left of the season.

What made no sense is that Reading didn't announce McDermott's successor at the same time they sacked him, much as Southampton did with Nigel Adkins and Mauricio Pochettino. It's the middle of March, with only a quarter of the season remaining - there is very little time for any new man to make an impact. Even if a permanent successor is appointed before Saturday, temporary boss (not interim - Rafa's got that trademarked) Eamonn Dolan will be in charge for the game on Saturday, meaning the next full-time man will have even less time. By having a new man in place, Reading would at least have made the most of the time available.

Anton Zingarevich is essentially banking on the 'new manager bounce' to save Reading, but it's quite the gamble. Three other clubs have changed managers this season, and the 'fresh face' factor has had...well, mixed success. Rafa Benitez took three games to get a win with one of the most talented squads in the Premier League, Harry Redknapp won one of his first seven and QPR are still bottom while Mauricio Pochettino has the same record in his seven games at Southampton. This is not to say that those appointments are necessarily bad long-term decisions, but more to illustrate the risk that Reading are taking.

Meanwhile, they have a trip to Manchester United to deal with this weekend. It's not looking great in Berkshire.


Aston Villa and QPR
Two unstoppable forces, giants of the game in fearsome form, hurtling towards each other at great speed, a clash of the most titanic manner imaginable.

Well, sort of. They did at least both win their last games, which is an improvement on most of their previous efforts.

The interesting thing about this game is that any momentum either team would perhaps have hoped to gain from those victories will be curtailed for at least one of them. Had they not faced each other, one could easily imagine both carrying on winning runs and using that to push on and scrape survival, but the clash at Villa Park means either one will lose or both will get a draw that, at the stage of the season when bottoms are twitching the most, is not much use to either side.

Of course three points are vital to both sides, but one thing to note is that, should QPR win, Harry's boys will be within just a point of Villa.

Scary times in Brum.


Norwich and Sunderland
And should either/both Villa and QPR manage to tunnel their way out of the bottom three, two of the sides most likely to take their places meet at the Stadium of Light on Sunday.

A couple of solid results in the past few weeks mean the Canaries are less likely to fall, but Sunderland are dropping like a rubber brick to the bottom of a municipal swimming pool. No wins in the last six and four defeats in that time means Sunderland are only just above the dreaded bottom three, and more bad news comes in the form of their fixture list. Their two games after Sunday are against Manchester United and Chelsea, with trips to Newcastle and Spurs to follow in the run-in.

That, along with signs of life shown by many teams just below them, means Sunderland absolutely have to win this one. Otherwise, that's going to be one expensive Championship squad.


Spurs
Fulham at home is, under normal circumstances, a relatively straightforward proposition. Martin Jol's men have only won twice on the road all season - once at Wigan, and once a mugging at West Brom - so since Spurs have only dropped four points at the Lane since the start of November, a best price of 8/15 seems reasonable.

However, after the rather gruelling trip to Milan in the Europa League on Thursday, it becomes a little more tricky. As Matt Stanger wrote here, the additional commitments of the Europa League means keeping up their challenge to not be playing in that competition next season will be a little more difficult.

The good news is not everyone will be knackered. Gareth Bale was of course suspended while Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Michael Dawson were rested and Aaron Lennon didn't play the full game in Italy. While Spurs have a seven-point lead over Arsenal, they ideally need to keep a healthy buffer because in a few weeks they face Chelsea and Manchester City in a week - after that it's relatively plain sailing, but Andre Villas-Boas will have to be smart to maintain their dual aims for the rest of the campaign.


Chelsea
Similarly, Chelsea have some workload issues. In the 36 days between March 30 and May 5, Chelsea potentially face 11 games, and that doesn't include the league clash with Spurs that will have to be rescheduled should they reach the FA Cup semi-final.

In short, Sunday's game against West Ham is the last one before things get, for want of a better word, mental. Three points would be very handy indeed.


Everton
It's all getting a bit restless at Goodison. And, after the three-minute caning by Wigan in the FA Cup last weekend, not without reason.

As with most of these things, much of the ire seems to be focused on the two most recognisable and high-profile figures at the club, specifically David Moyes and Marouane Fellaini, with commitment issues of various sorts causing much of the ire - specifically the uncertainty over Moyes's future, and Fellaini's perceived...'relaxed' attitude to football in recent games.

What might quiet the natives a little is a strong performance - perhaps even a win - against Manchester City on Saturday.


Manchester City
Said Gael Clichy this week: "If you look at the scenario, it is actually not that much different from last season - eight points behind with six games to go last year, 12 behind with 10 to play this time around.

"If United don't make mistakes, they will win the title, but everyone is saying United have to lose four games. That's not true - if they draw a few matches we can make up points in that way.

"It's easier to be 12 points ahead because if you draw one and then lose one, you still have a good lead. But one bad result can become two and then the doubts creep in. You ask yourself 'Is it going to be the same as last season?'"

Let's file that one under 'optimistic', Gael. And it doesn't matter too much how many points United drop if City don't keep winning games.


Liverpool
"We said it was always going to be tough but we set ourselves the little task of trying to win as many games as we could in the last 10 and that's three in a row now so we've got a chance," said Stewart Downing this week.

"We've got some winnable games but that's easier said than done. We have to go and win them but from the way we are playing I think we can beat anyone.

"The teams in and around that top half are playing each other so obviously some are going to slip up and drop points and the thing for us is to take each game as it comes and see where we finish."

If Liverpool are to nick a European spot, consistency is key, and winning a fourth game in a row would be a very sturdy brick in that particular wall.

Nick Miller - follow him on Twitter