Wait for late Milan strike

Nick Hext reckons backing a late AC Milan goal is the way to go in the return leg of their Champions League tie with Barcelona.

Last Updated: 12/03/13 at 19:10 Post Comment

Barcelona have plenty of work to do against AC Milan.

Barcelona have plenty of work to do against AC Milan.

Bet £10 Get £30

Daily Offers And Promotions. Join Now & Bet £10 and Get a £30 Free Bet

Our Nick Hext reckons backing a late AC Milan goal is the way to go in the return leg of their Champions League tie with Barcelona.

It's no surprise to see Barcelona as the odds-on favourites to beat AC Milan in the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie but the odds in the to qualify market certainly don't reflect the tough task they face.

Barca enter this clash 2-0 down from the opening encounter and that means a victory by three goals is required to reach the quarter-finals or a 2-0 success to take the contest to extra-time.

That should see the Catalans as a larger price to make the quarter-finals and the odds clearly show the high regard the Primera Division leaders are held in.

We all know about the quality of football produced by Barca in the last few years but the simple maths of the situation - especially with the damage an AC Milan strike does to their chances via the away goals rule - mean they can't be backed.

The same goes for Lionel Messi.

Barca's star man has already scored 51 goals this season but you won't be surprised to learn the bookies are aware he's quite good so 2/5 is the best price available for him to net.

The recent record of the Catalans also isn't too hot with three wins and three defeats in their last six matches and AC Milan are in decent form ahead of this match with an 11-game unbeaten run in 2013.

There are concerns for the Italians with Philippe Mexes an injury doubt and Giampaolo Pazzini ruled out because oft the hairline fracture he suffered to his fibula during Friday's win at Genoa.

Mario Balotelli is cup-tied after his efforts for Manchester City earlier in the season but Milan still provide a threat with goals from Kevin-Prince Boateng and Sulley Muntari in the first leg proving the danger from midfield.

A few of you will be interested by the hefty price for Milan to win but the situation doesn't require them to do that and Barca's 19-match unbeaten run at home in the Champions League deserves serious respect.

The best way I've found to support Massimiliano Allegri's side is by backing them to score the last goal of the game.

They have done that in six of their last eight matches and it doesn't take a huge leap of imagination to see how Barca can be punished on the break as they go pushing for late goals.

Everyone will recall how Fernando Torres' goal at the Nou Camp last season sealed Chelsea's progress to the Champions League final and we could well see a similar situation this time.

Backing Milan to score last is certainly worthy of providing you with an interest.

Schalke v Galatasaray is the night's other Champions League clash.

The first leg finished 1-1 in Turkey to give the Bundesliga side the advantage but I reckon it's the visitors to back at the Veltins Arena.

The January additions of Didier Drogba and Wesley Sneijder have increased the star names in the Gala squad and the likes of Hamit Altintop and Felipe Melo also have decent reputations.

Fatih Terim's side suffered a disappointing defeat against Genclerbirligi at the weekend but I wouldn't be too worried by that as their credentials are proved by sitting at the top of the Super Lig.

Schalke impressed in Saturday's victory over Borussia Dortmund but the win came at a cost as Klaas-Jan Huntelaar suffered a knee injury that keeps him out of this match.

Jermaine Jones, who scored Schalke's goal in Turkey, is suspended so there are reasons to be concerned about the home side's chances.

Gala are well worth backing for the victory and that is the second tip for the night.


Win £250 for your free £10 bet if Milan win on penalties


Bet £10 Get £30

Daily Offers And Promotions. Join Now & Bet £10 and Get a £30 Free Bet

Related News

Most Commented

Readers' Comments

E

ven if United were to sign CR7 & Messi to play upfront, the fact remains Fletcher and Cleverly are playing in midfield. That's where the problem is. Fletcher is too slow with an awful pass, while Cleverly is simply rubbish

mrunited4life
Di Maria - A Signing of Necessity, or Opportunity?

T

hese days, these days, you can't say something racist without somebody saying that you're a racist.

tk421
'Wrong' Views Not Silenced By Shouting...

D

rop Rooney (he's so disappointing, overrated and overpaid), and play Di Maria and RVP upfront, much like the set up at the Netherlands team with Roben and RVP...

eric bush3
Di Maria - A Signing of Necessity, or Opportunity?

Footer 365

Transfer news: Nikola Zigic's agent confirms Arsenal's interest

The agent of ex-Birmingham striker Nikola Zigic has told SPORT that Arsenal have expressed an interest in his client.

Premier League: Crystal Palace unveil Neil Warnock as new manager

Neil Warnock has returned to Crystal Palace after being named as the new manager on a two-year deal.

Manchester United signing Angel di Maria claims he was forced out of Real Madrid

Manchester United signing Angel di Maria has claimed he never wanted to leave Real Madrid.

Mail Box

Should Kagawa Play Ahead Of Mata?

That's one question posed in the afternoon mailbox, although it looks like the Japanese playmaker could soon be on his way. Plus, tipping Palace to go down under Warnock...

Well, This Isn't Going That Well Is It?

Plenty of fall out from Manchester United's shambolic 4-0 League Cup defeat, plus thoughts on Van Persie, Arsenal strikers, Benik Afobe, Celtic and Astroturf...

© 2014 British Sky Broadcasting Ltd. All Rights Reserved A Sky Sports Digital Media property