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Why Chelsea Will Monopolise The Title Race...
Looking at the latest transfer gossip, it seems that economics has finally caught up with all but a notable few clubs, not only in England, but globally. Despite what we may believe, most clubs are run as businesses (okay, some may not be run very well, but they are still businesses nonetheless) and most are heavily indebted.
It is very noticeable that the few clubs who have wealthy owners are the ones spending (e.g. Chelsea, Villa), whilst those dependent upon the business acumen of their owners (e.g. Arsenal, Everton, Newcastle, West Ham) or the generosity of their bankers (e.g. MU, Portsmouth, Liverpool) have been far less active. In Europe, the situation is even worse, as Madrid have made few signing of note and the big Italian clubs have been spectacularly circumspect (Senderos to Milan! WTF???). There are the odd exceptions (e.g. Barcelona and, possibly, Spurs), but generally there have been remarkably few big-money signings and plenty of players being released from expensive contracts (e.g. Ljungberg).
So, what will be the impact? In the Premier League, Chelsea will win by 5-8 points - more if they get Kaka too. MU will finish second, but the race will be all but over before April. Arsenal, Liverpool and Villa will fight it out for the next three places. And repeat for 2009/10, possibly adding a revitalised Spurs to the equation for the CL place. In Europe, English hegemony will continue, until Platini finds a way to handicap us.
Eventually, the 'credit crunch' will abate and the Spanish and Italian giants will start to challenge again. Domestically, the benefit of The Emirates will kick in and Arsenal will be able to join the 'Big Two', but until Liverpool sort their finances out (i.e. move to a new stadium) they will be too heavily dependent upon their debt to make their desired impact. The likes of Villa and Spurs will find that there is a 'glass ceiling' beyond which they cannot (yet?) climb, as to win the Premiership you need to have the financial muscle to compete against clubs that are able to spend £30+m on players (e.g. MU for Ferdinand and Veron; Chelsea for Shevchenko and, possibly, Kaka).
This is obviously a fairly depressing picture, but the good news is that we can expect some (relative) sanity in the salaries that footballers are getting paid. The top, top, performers (copyright J. Redknapp) will still get obscene amounts of money, but the bit-part/squad players will find their wages stagnating or even reducing. The bad news is that those top, top, performers all will be purchased by MU and Chelsea, thus concentrating the power even more in a Scottish-style duopoly (and this will be even further exacerbated by Platini's mad idea to have a core of English players in each side). The even worse news is that TV will quickly become bored with this situation, thus reducing the next contract and leaving the duopoly further entrenched.
I would love it, just love it, (copyright K. Keegan) if someone could prove my analysis far too pessimistic, or if Roman's money was sequestered by the Russian court, or the Glaziers went bankrupt, but failing that, my expectations are duly reduced to hoping Arsenal win the odd cup here and there whilst MU and Chelsea aren't paying attention.
Philip Lewis (not in the mood to write anything amusing in brackets)
Never Mind The Money, It's All About Scolari
With or without the Brazilian, the Blues look certainties for the title. Never mind the stronger squad, just the new manager is worth at least an additional 10 points in the league alone.
Blue, South Africa
Stop Trying To Be A Businessman, Arsene...
With all the frustration of being an Arsenal fan I was thinking of some of the similarities between football and business and if so why Arsene Wenger should start getting his chequebook out pronto and signing some experienced players to complement the side.
As Arsenal is a business, Arsene will report into the board of directors who should be setting him his season's objectives i.e. challenge for the title, and allocating him an operating budget to attain that. Arsene should then be planning for the season and looking where he needs to invest his resources to deliver on his objectives, which being a business, Arsene then will be reviewed on his performance at season end by the directors.
Now my concern is that Arsene is trying to save and make money at every opportunity, at the detriment to the team. Ultimately it is not his responsibility to worry about the finances, the board should have control over that (Leeds are an example when they are not). He should be focussing solely on the team's performance and results. If in my job I go to my boss at the end of the year and tell him I didn't meet any objectives but I haven't spent any budget I am not going to get a pat on the back (more likely the boot).
My concern now is that Arsene is focussed on the complete running of the club when he should be focussing on team performance. If this is the case maybe it is time for him to move upstairs and let someone who has the hunger to win take over the running of the team.
Arsene has been a great manager and has transformed Arsenal Football Club. I just hope he won't be remembered for leaving the club in roughly the same league position as when he arrived.
Gareth Beynon
Has Wenger Lost The Plot?
For the first time I am starting to lose my patience with Arsene Wenger. He now believes that it doesn't matter if we get in another midfield player because we just need, belief, strength and personality. Well if personality is a key attribute, I wonder how the f*** Eboue got any where near the Arsenal first team, let alone the chance to play all manner of positions.
We lost out on trophies last season because of loads of different reasons but one of those reasons was lack of depth and maturity in the squad, which Wenger has already admitted. We had Flamini and Gilberto at that time and still looked a little light for cover, especially when Fabregas was not available. We've now lost both of those players and signed 17-year-old Ramsey as the only central replacement. It doesn't take a genius to work out that we have taken a massive step backwards in this department, which is the most important part of the team.
Last season there was not many games that Arsenal didn't play well and when we won our games, it was usually deserved by looking at the balance of play. This season, we have played three competitive games and looked awful in each of them. I still can't believe we won 2-0 away to FC Twente and we were very lucky to keep a 1-0 score line against WBA. The Fulham game just confirmed for me how desperately we do need a strong midfielder to come in and help Fabregas when he comes back.
I'm not one for negativity but there are simply no positives to look at in our latest performances. I've always backed Wenger but this time, I think he has lost the plot. If we don't get someone else in to help the top players we do have in the squad, then we can kiss goodbye to Fabregas, Van Persie, Adebayor and whoever else and I wouldn't blame them for leaving.
Paul Griffiths, London
...As an Arsenal fan, the last few seasons have caused me to become increasingly wary of phrases like "I'm happy with the squad" and "we'll only sign the right player" coming from Mr Wenger. It basically means "we won't be signing anyone".
We desperately need another central midfielder who has a physical presence about them. But no, it looks like we're going to start the season with Diaby (sicknote), Denilson (tidy, but a bit lightweight, also quite inconsistent), Eboue (can't shoot, dives, generally despicable) or Alex Song (inexperienced, a bit clumsy) as our central midfield partner for Fabregas. I suppose Toure could be considered an outside bet for the position as well if we hadn't just loaned Senderos to Milan for some reason.
For crying out loud Arsene, get the chequebook out and sign someone! I vaguely remember you saying something about how good the squad was last season as well and remind me how that turned out? And we've lost players since then!
Mark, Sheffield
ManYoo Have Done All This...
Ssshhh. Hear that noise? That one. Yep there it was again. And again! You know what it is? The sound of pennies dropping, that's what. And those pennies are landing like missiles in Islington and Highbury, as north Londoners realise Arsenal are on the brink of signing absolutely nobody of significance and are already resigned to making up the numbers this season. Just another small step in their delicious demise from Invincibles to Imbeciles then.
As a lifelong United fan of all things red I feel duty bound to bring the following point to the attention of the developed world. I'd hate it to pass under the footballing radar, really I would.
The demise of Arsenal football club has been caused by Manchester United. And just to emphasise the point, United are on the brink of repeating the trick, this time shagging the hated Liverpool right where it hurts too.
Consider; Way back in the annals of time, well 1996 actually, United completed the development of their mountainous North stand, towering darkly like K2 and almost as steep. It took the capacity of Old Trafford up to over 55,000 and sent palpitations through English football, in particular a Mr Danny Fiszman, then director of the Arse. He rightly identified the gap that had opened between his beloved Arsenal and United was threatening Arsenal's competitiveness. Highbury held 38,000 and now the Red Devils had extended Old Trafford the gap was a colossal 17,000 for every home match. That equated to around £500,000 additional revenue per match and that financial gap was too large to bridge. Reluctantly Mr Fiszman began to think the unthinkable. In order to compete with United over a longer term strategy Arsenal had to leave their beloved Highbury.
Now fast forward to today, and what have we before our eyes? Why, the Gunners have indeed moved house, and to a truly exceptional residence too. Utterly superb and pretty as a page three model, their new pad is all any Arsenal red-blooded bachelor could wish for.
All they have to do now is pay for it.
And in that single sentence comes the, well, payback. For as splendid as the Emirates is (and at this point I can't help but speculate at the stick and derision that would have been heaped on 'greedy United' had they ever sold the naming rights to Old Trafford in honour of a middle-eastern airline) the plain fact is that the financial burden of that move has shagged Arsenal to the point of competitive collapse.
They have to pay for that beauty of a stadium, and now can't afford anything like the player transfer outlay of United, the very club whose successful investment in their own stadium forced an eviction notice on the Gunners, in the process reducing the legendary art deco Highbury stadium to a block of flats.
You want proof? United buy Hargreaves, Anderson, Nani, Carlos Tevez, and perhaps Berbatov. Arsenal get Amaury Bischoff.
And how is Old Trafford after all these years? Why, we now have a capacity of 76,000, which is virtually the same 17,000 difference from all those years ago when Arsenal launched their response to an ever-bulging Theatre of Dreams. Running to stand still, Gunners? But whereas the jaw-droppingly pretty Emirates is finished, Old Trafford surely has yet more development up its intimidating, brutally beautiful sleeve. A final capacity of 96,000 anyone?
If this isn't a juicy enough snack for gluttonous Red Devils to gorge on, consider the Michelin-starred main course that's being prepared for roasting right now. Liverpool. The once-mighty rivals that have conquered Europe more times than any British club are now a parody of their former selves. Comparatively obsolete on the field and belittled by owner in-fighting off it, their quandary shows signs only of getting worse before it gets better.
They are hurting.
They know they're miles off the pace with Anfield and are just about maintaining their dignity whilst their home is being outclassed week in, week out. Small, impossible to develop, financially not at the races and despite their self-absorbing tosh about the 'Anfield effect', anything but a fortress. So they have to move too. Just consider the implication of that for a moment. Manchester United have forced firstly Arsenal and almost certainly Liverpool to leave their beloved ancestral homes, purely to hang onto the expanding Old Trafford coat tails. I like it. I like it a lot.
If that forced move was painful enough for Arsenal, Liverpool are in even more agony. Their stadium project lunges from take one to take two, back to the drawing board again and now is scaled down to something not wanted but what will have to do. All that and with considerable credit crunch doubt as to if it will ever occur at all. Don't move, and they're left behind. Leave their beloved home of over a century - painfully evicted by Manchester United no less, remember, and the financial strain will place Liverpool in exactly the same position of years of utter non-competitiveness as Arsenal.
Delicious.
David Garner, United supporter since birth, attending Old Trafford since 1973.
Could Milan Be The Making Of Senderos?
I read with interest yesterday of everyone's pal Phillipe Snederos joining AC. Am I the only one that thinks a) this may not be bad for Arsenal and b) it may do his confidence some good. Personally I think he could do well at AC. The Italian game is nothing as fast as it is in England and he could certainly benefit from getting a run of games under his belt. Senderos is your typical confidence player and without the Drogba-type forward he may progress. In many of the games I've seen him play for Arsenal where he's won plenty in the air when he drives on to the ball. Problem is he gets a nose bleed when he passes outside the 18-yard box. His mistakes (of which there have been a few I admit) are mainly in diving into a tackle when it's not necessary or being caught out positionally.
No, I say it here now (and I could regret it) I think this might be a very smart move by the prof and I hope that it does bring the required improvement into his game.
Liam (Gooner)
Talking Of Milan...
I've got a solution for those poor 365ers, who like me are lamenting the passing of their prospective football careers. While it is an eternal disappointment that we may never be able to pull on the shirt of our favourite side, we can at least take some solace in the fact that we may still one day play professional at the highest level.
This is all thanks to AC Milan. Don't worry about your age, talent or fitness. After all they've just signed Shevchenko, Senderos and Ronaldinho. In fact Milan's President Adriano Galliani has said that thanks to this summer's 'swoops', the club should win the title this season. Not until they sign me, they won't.
Simon (35 and back on the training pitch)
We're All Feeling Old...
On the subject of us all feeling old and we'll never be footballers. Well I am a footballer. Well Sunday League. On our team sheets we have to stick down the dates of birth of all our players under the age of 18 (for insurance purposes I think)
Anyhow, a few of our players have just graduated from our under 16 team. So I'm seeing these dates of birth now on my team sheets.
MY CAR IS OLDER THAN THESE LITTLE B*****DS!!!!!!!!!!! BY A GOOD 7 YEARS!!!!!!!
And I'm a good five years older than my car. I thank God I'm not old enough to be any of their dads (legally) yet.
I'm not even 30 for f**k's sake yet!!!
John 'Going to cry with the rest of the oldies' Goy, Pembrokeshire
Our Own Team GB...
Every time anybody mentions team GB I can't help but think of Gareth Barry, Giles Barnes and Gareth Bale. Can anyone complete the team?
Bob (do we really need the Scots) Foster
(We'll throw in George Best and Garry Birtles off the top of our heads - Mailbox Compiler)
