Numbers Game

The Numbers Game is back with a 9/5 Value Bet, plus all the usual pointers for the weekend's football.

Last Updated: 22/02/13 at 16:25

Fleetwood: Fancied at Aldershot

Fleetwood: Fancied at Aldershot

@MattPBriggs fancies Fleetwood (9/5) to do the business this weekend, while in-form Watford are the Banker.

All the usual pointers and statistics are included, while the bookies are hoping that Manchester United and Arsenal get turned over this weekend.


VALUE BET

Fleetwood to beat Aldershot at 9/5.

Fleetwood have won three of their last four away from home in League Two - including a 2-0 success over second-placed Port Vale and they look a value pick at Aldershot. The Cod Army are starting to find their feet under Graham Alexander and last week's slip up against Burton can be excused after they had goalkeeper Scott Davies sent off. The Shots sacked Dean Holdsworth despite beating Torquay 1-0, but they have only picked up six points from their last seven games.

STEAMERS

Sky Bet report that Everton have been heavily backed at 21/20 to gain three points at Norwich.

City take on Chelsea on Sunday and are well fancied at 19/20 to overcome Rafa Benitez's side who left it late in their Europa League tie.

Southampton are quite popular to win away at Newcastle at 13/5, the Geordies are even money while I fancy the draw at 5/2.

The Capital One Cup Final has drawn huge interest and while Swansea at 4/11 have been thrown in all the accumulators, Bradford at 7/1 are hugely popular in singles.

WHO'S HOT

Manchester United (4/7) won last three in Premier League and travel to QPR (6/1).

Barnsley (9/5) won last four in Championship and travel to Bristol C (7/4).

Hull (7/4) won last three in Championship and travel to Bolton (19/10).

Yeovil (11/5) won last eight in League One and travel to Doncaster (6/4).

Sheff Utd (5/2) won last three in League One and travel to Bournemouth (13/10).

WHO'S NOT

Millwall (11/4) lost last five in Championship and travel to Middlesbrough (11/10) (5.20pm).

Tranmere (17/10) lost last four in League One and travel to Colchester (9/5).

Stevenage (11/5) lost last three in League One and travel to Shrewsbury (7/5).

Torquay (13/5) lost last five in League Two and host Port Vale (11/10).

TRADERS' VIEW

Sky Bet: Manchester Utd look worth opposing at 1/2 away at QPR. Manchester City, Tottenham and Spurs have all failed to win at Loftus Road and Harry Redknapp seems to get his side well organised and difficult to break down against the top teams.

The treble with Arsenal (1/3), Manchester Utd and Everton is the one we are looking to avoid as punters are loving this. It pays just over 3/1 and will ensure a miserable day for us should it cop.

BOGEY TEAMS

Arsenal (4/11) have won only two of last six home games v Aston Villa (10/1) in the Premier League.

QPR (6/1) have taken just two points from 11 Premier League encounters v Manchester United (4/7).

Manchester City (evens) have won only one of last four Premier League matches v Chelsea (100/30) (Sun, 1.30pm)

Newcastle (6/5) have won seven of last eight Premier League home games v Southampton (11/4) (Sun, 1.30pm).

BANKER

Watford to beat Derby at 10/11.

The Hornets have been flying of late and they should be able to see off away-day strugglers Derby. The Rams have plenty of injuries to contend with and have lost nine of their 16 away trips, while Watford, who are a fair price, are fancied to chalk up a home win.

HOT-SHOTS

Hull's Gedo has scored three in his last three and is 16/5 to score at Bolton.

Crystal Palace's Glenn Murray has three in his last two and is 13/10 to score at Sheff Wed.

Yeovil's Paddy Madden has 10 in his last seven and is 6/4 to score at Doncaster.

TREATMENT ROOM

Millwall to win at Middlesbrough at 11/4.

Middlesbrough will be without striker Lukas Jutkiewicz, Stuart Parnaby and Kieron Dyer. Jonathan Woodgate (calf) and Seb Hines (knee), Andy Halliday and Ishmael Miller (both ankle) are doubtful. Justin Hoyte (hip) and midfielder Julio Arca (toe surgery) are still out.

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

Wycombe to beat Southend at 33/20.

Gareth Ainsworth felt his Wycombe side were unlucky to have two penalty appeals rejected in their 1-0 defeat to Bristol Rovers: "Jo (Kuffour) told me afterwards he thought at least one should have been given, but referees have a difficult job and sometimes decisions don't go your way. For half an hour we were the only team in it and I was delighted with how we were playing but, after Rovers scored, a few mistakes started to creep in."

Cardiff to win at Wolves at 29/20 (Sun).

Speaking after the 2-0 defeat by Brighton, Cardiff boss Malky Mackay said: "In the first half we had four or five good chances to their one, and despite the goal before half-time we came out in the second half and penned them in and ended up with 22 attempts on target, which is incredible. I thought the goal was coming to be honest, because of the pressure we were having but, it was one of those nights where the goal led a charmed life."

You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs

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