Numbers Game

The Numbers Game puts up Blackburn as the Banker and Dagenham & Redbridge as the Value Bet.

Last Updated: 01/03/13 at 14:57

Last week's Numbers Game was far from Matty Briggs' finest, but it still registered 11/4, 29/20 and 10/11 winners as Millwall, Cardiff and Watford (Banker) all obliged.

This week the unique betting blog is back with another Value Bet, all the usual statistics and pointers and all the movers and shakers from the men in the know - the bookmakers.


VALUE BET

Dagenham to beat Chesterfield at 11/8.

Dagenham carried on John Still's good work with a 1-1 draw at Bradford on Wednesday and but for a missed penalty they would have taken all three points. They put in a strong and disciplined performance and a repeat of that display will see them defeat a Chesterfield team who haven't scored for three games. After some decent money for the Daggers this week there is just about enough left in the price for me to back.

STEAMERS

Sky Bet say on Saturday the big teams in action have all been popular in multiples with Chelsea, Everton and Manchester Utd all featuring prominently at odds on. Chelsea have drifted from 4/11 to 2/5 in the wake of 'Rafa's rant' but this has not deterred punters from backing the Blues despite their problems.

Should those three win we will have all kinds money running on to Liverpool at 4/5 in the 5.30pm kick-off. Despite the Reds' lack of success of late punters still seem to regard them as a big force.

Southampton have been heavily backed and are now 4/5 from evens to beat bottom side QPR. People seem to have given up on Harry Redknapp producing miracles and pulling them out of the relegation zone.

WHO'S HOT

Manchester United (1/3) won last four in Premier League and host Norwich (8/1).

Tottenham (5/4) won last three in Premier League and host Arsenal (2/1) (Sun, 4pm).

Arsenal (2/1 won last three in Premier League and travel to Spurs (5/4) (Sun, 4pm).

Watford (5/4) won last three in Championship and travel to Wolves (12/5) (Fri).

Hartlepool (4/1) won last three in League One and travel to Doncaster (17/20).

Oldham (5/2) won last three in League One and host Sheff Utd (5/4).

Burton (21/10) won last four in League Two and travel to Bristol Rovers (6/4).

WHO'S NOT

Sunderland (7/5) lost last three in Premier League and host Fulham (12/5).

Stevenage (29/20) lost last five in League One and host Colchester (23/10).

Bournemouth (7/5) lost last three in League One and travel to Orient (23/10).

Torquay (12/5) lost last seven in League Two and travel to Accrington (11/8).

TRADERS' VIEW

Sky Bet: Chelsea look a great lay given their home form and the spotlight is sure to be heavily on the manager Rafa Benitez.

On Sunday the North London derby takes centre stage, and Spurs are now 5/4 from 7/5 and are popular to gain a crucial three points. The draw looks quite tasty at 5/2 in what looks sure to be a close encounter, while Arsenal can be backed at 2/1.

BOGEY TEAMS

Chelsea (4/9) have lost their last two Premier League games v WBA (8/1).

Southampton (10/11) have won only five of their last 17 league games against QPR (7/2).

Sunderland (7/5) have won only one of last seven Premier League games v Fulham (12/5).

Wigan (18/5) have lost only one of last six Premier League games v Liverpool (17/20).

Tottenham (13/10) have lost only one of last seven Premier League home games v Arsenal (9/4) (Sun, 4pm).

BANKER

Blackburn to beat Peterborough at 5/6.

Peterborough have upset the applecart on several occasions this season, but they've failed to score in their last two games and Blackburn, since the arrival of Michael Appleton, are a tighter defensive unit. The Posh have lost 10 of their 16 games against top-half opposition and they look vulnerable against Rovers at Ewood Park.

HOT-SHOTS

Coventry's Leon Clarke has four in four and is 13/8 to score against Swindon.

Bolton defender Craig Dawson has three in two and is 11/2 to score at Barnsley.

Aston Villa's Christian Benteke has six in his last seven and is 5/2 to score v Man C (Mon).

TREATMENT ROOM

Torquay to win at Accrington at 21/10.

Torquay look set to be boosted by the return of captain Lee Mansell as they head to Accrington looking to end a seven-game losing streak. Boss Alan Knill also hopes to have at least one new face on board before the trip especially in the absence of centre back Aaron Downes.

FAMOUS LAST WORDS

Sunderland to beat Fulham at 5/4.

Speaking after last weekend's defeat to West Brom, Sunderland boss Martin O'Neill said: "I felt we should have got something out of the game. That's the last three matches we've played where we shouldn't have been beaten. The big decision was the penalty kick which was given against us. But then there was a similar situation at the other end where it wasn't given. I've seen both of them back. Both are penalties. We should've scored two or three times before West Brom's second goal.''

Rochdale to beat Morecambe at 9/4.

After the midweek 3-0 defeat at home to Accrington, Rochdale manager Keith Hill said: "We've witnessed two spectacular goals from the opposition. The first one was right out of the top drawer and the second one equalled it. For 75 minutes I was reasonably happy. I thought we were the better footballing side and we just haven't got that penetrative edge in front of goal at the minute."

You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs

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