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Numbers Game: Baggies the home value

West Brom (29/20) look a value pick to beat Wigan, while Brighton are a rock-solid even-money Banker Bet in this weekend's Numbers Game.

Last Updated: 10/09/13 at 09:37 Post Comment

West Brom: Backed to beat Wigan

West Brom: Backed to beat Wigan

@MattPBriggs' betting blog returns for its final installment of the season with West Brom and Derby highlighted as the Value Bets. Albion are a decent-looking 29/20 to see off relegation-haunted Wigan and Derby are a 13/10 shot to sink Millwall. Championship promotion contenders Brighton also look a solid Banker Bet to sink Wolves and all the usual stats and pointers are included.

Let me know what your backing this weekend in the box below.

VALUE BET



West Brom to beat Wigan at 29/20 & Derby to beat Millwall at 13/10 (12.45pm).



Wigan's end-of-season charge has not materialised this season and I think Roberto Martinez's men are doomed this time around. The bookies have chalked them up at 11/5 to win at West Brom this weekend and that seems far too skinny against an Albion side who have won nine of their 17 home games. The Baggies proved last week that they have not brought down the curtain on their season with a 3-0 win at Southampton and with around £1million in prize money available per Premier League place forget the notion they have nothing to play for. Albion are worth backing and are too big a price at 29/20 to push a poor Wigan side closer to the drop.


Derby won't be going up or down from the Championship this season but it would be crazy to write them off against relegation-threatened Millwall. The Rams have won half of their 22 home games and the 11/8 on offer looks generous against the Lions, who might need a win to stay up.


STEAMERS



Sky Bet say Bolton have been backed from 4/6 into 4/7 to beat Blackpool on Saturday as they look to confirm their participation in the play-offs whilst Paul Ince's Blackpool have no reason to strain themselves. Bolton are one of the form sides of the Championship and have won seven of their last 10 games although Jay Spearing, one of their star players will miss the game with a broken toe.


Another Championship form side, Birmingham, have been well backed to win, as they have come in from 5/4 to 23/20 to beat relegation survivors Blackburn. Blackburn cannot go down now which could explain the move towards Birmingham, who sit in 10th after an excellent season.



Paddy Power say since an opening show of 4/7 went up, we have seen plenty of interest in Tottenham to pick up the spoils this weekend at home to Southampton. They now rest at a price of 4/9, probably reflected in the fact that their opponents have really gone off the boil of late. The battle between Chelsea, Arsenal and Tottenham for the third and fourth spots in the league looks set to go right down to the wire and AVB's men will definitely be looking for maximum points this weekend.



bet365 say of the teams in the Premier League its Villa, Spurs and Liverpool that are getting the punters' attention. Championship wise its very busy with a lot of home sides being backed for success. Bolton and Brighton are popular, as are Sheff Wednesday.


WHO'S HOT



Stoke 3/1 won last two in Premier League and travel to Sunderland 23/20 (Mon).


Brighton (evens) won last two in Championship and host Wolves (31/10)(12.45pm)


Huddersfield (11/8) won last two in Championship and host Barnsley (23/10) (12.45pm).


Watford (9/20) won last two in Championship and host Leeds (15/2) (12.45pm).


WHO'S NOT



Fulham (3/4) lost last three Prem games and host Reading (9/2).


Leeds (15/2) lost last two in Championship and travel to Watford (9/20)(12.45pm).


Wolves (31/10) lost last two in Championship and travel to Brighton (evens) (12.45pm).


TRADERS' VIEW



Sky Bet: Villa look a great price to see off Norwich at Carrow Road, their amazing win over Sunderland aside, they have shown glimpses of genuine class this season. The visitors are 15/8 whilst Norwich are plenty short at 7/5.


Southampton look a fair price to win at Tottenham as well as 6/1, the Saints are no strangers to beating the cream of the league having defeated Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea already under manager Mauricio Pochettino and they could spring a shock here.



Bet365: Villa travel to Paul Lambert's old club full of confidence and with Christian Benteke in this kind of form Norwich look a lay.



Paddy Power: With Norwich looking like their season is going away from them of late with a string of poor results to their name, I am going to oppose them with Aston Villa who seem to be a fairly generous priceat 2/1.

They will be full of confidence after dismantling fellow relegation contenders Sunderland 6-1 on Monday night. If Villa take the lead , Norwich may not have the will or want to get anything from the game.


BOGEY TEAMS



Norwich (8/5) have won just one of their last nine Barclays Premier League meetings v Aston Villa (2/1).


Tottenham (1/2) have won nine of their 11 previous Premier League home meetings v Southampton (7/1).


West Ham (7/5) have won just two of the last 14 top-flight meetings v Newcastle (9/4).


Arsenal (4/9) have never won at QPR (7/1) in the Premier League era (D3 L2).


Everton (10/3) have only won one of their last 12 Premier League games v Liverpool (evens).


Sunderland (23/20) have won three of their four previous Barclays Premier League home meetings v Stoke (3/1).


BANKER



Brighton to beat Wolves at evens. (12.45pm)



Brighton are safe in the Championship play-off places, but the evens is still too good to turn down against Wolves. The men from Molineux look doomed and need a near miracle to survive on the final day and 13 defeats away from home does not make happy reading. The hosts are 21 points better off than Dean Saunders' men and expect them to make that look obvious at the Amex.


TREATMENT ROOM



Ipswich to win at Burnley at 5/2.


Burnley will be without centre-back Michael Duff, who is suspended, while David Edgar has been granted compassionate leave to return to his native Canada for the birth of his first child.

If Kevin Long (groin) and Ben Mee (knee) fail to shake off their respective injury problems Sean Dyche will be without a recognised centre-back to partner skipper Jason Shackell.

Top scorer Charlie Austin remains on the sidelines.



Stoke to win at Sunderland at 3/1 (Mon).



Striker Stephane Sessegnon will miss Sunderland's clash with Stoke through suspension. Connor Wickham (calf) is expected to miss out once again, while leading scorer Steven Fletcher (ankle) and skipper Lee Cattermole (knee) were ruled out of the run-in several weeks ago.


FAMOUS LAST WORDS



Cardiff to win at Hull at 3/1.



After last week's 2-0 defeat at Barnsley, Hull boss Steve Bruce said of his stuttering side: "The reason why we've got ourselves in this position is we've played badly before and responded.

"It's a big, huge week and I'm confident we'll respond in the right way. Thankfully, it's still in our hands but we certainly need to perform to a level which we haven't seen today."



Charlton to beat Bristol City at 5/6.



After last week's 2-2 draw at Middlesbrough, Charlton boss Chris Powell said: "It is exasperating. For me the officials have got some big decisions wrong today and that is disappointing and frustrating. There was what looked like a clear-cut penalty in the first half and another in the second - and if you ask Tony he will tell you that Middlesbrough might have had one as well. That said, I was pleased with the performance if not the result. I'm pleased with the way the team have performed after coming up a league. It is a credit to the group and bodes well for next season."



You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs


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