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Numbers Game: Side with value Swans

The Numbers Game returns and Swansea (15/4 DNB) are a massive price to sink Liverpool on Sunday and maintain the Value Bet's winning run.

Last Updated: 18/02/13 at 13:03 Post Comment

Swansea: Too good a price to ignore

Swansea: Too good a price to ignore

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The popular betting blog is back after a two-week absence and @MattPBriggs fancies Swansea to make it five wins on the spin for the in-form Value Bet.

The bookies have some conflicting viewpoints ahead of the the weekend's FA Cup action and the Banker, Famous Last Words and the Treatment Room are back as well as all the usual pointers and statistics.

Let me know your fancies ahead of the weekend in the box below.

VALUE BET



Swansea to beat Liverpool DNB at 15/4 (Sun, 3pm).



Seventh-placed Swansea are a terrific price (15/4) to win DNB at ninth-placed Liverpool on Sunday. The Swans won 3-1 at Anfield in the Capital One Cup in October and in the three Premier League meetings since Swansea were promoted Liverpool are yet to score against them. Liverpool were turned over by West Brom last Monday and they were beaten by Zenit on Thursday night and they look vulnerable against a Swansea side playing for their cup final places.


STEAMERS



Sky Bet say Millwall are popular at evens to overcome their Conference opponents Luton in Saturday's early FA Cup game.


On Saturday unsurprisingly Arsenal (2/7) at home to Blackburn and Everton (1/3) away at Oldham are dominating the multiple business. The popular five-fold covering including Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester Utd pays just over 9/5 and is wrapping up liabilities at an alarming rate! If you throw Liverpool who are in Premier League action - (8/15 v Swansea) the payout is just over 3/1.



Bet Victor say their enhanced offer of 7/5 for Manchester United (home to Reading), Manchester City (home to Leeds), Arsenal (home to Blackburn) and Chelsea (home to Brentford) to all win their home FA Cup ties has been very popular and are not sure how long it will last!


Liverpool are backed every week (we have already had money for the 2013/14 season for Brendan Rodgers' men!) and they have been supported again to beat Swansea. The Baggies defeat was a cracking result for the books on Monday night.



Paddy Power say Swansea have been backed. There was 6/1 available but I can't see too many firms offering bigger than 9/2 come kick-off.

Brendan Rodgers is yet to taste victory against his old club and we don't fancy Liverpool here either. Liverpool played a strong side in Russia against Zenit and a lot of their players could still be suffering from fatigue come kick off on Sunday.



Betfred say after a busy week of European football, punters haven't been as keen to get stuck into the FA Cup as of yet. There have been lots of accumulators though involving Arsenal and Everton so they look to be the bankers this weekend.


WHO'S HOT



Barnsley (2/1) won last three in Championship and travel to MK Dons (6/4) in cup.


Yeovil (23/20) won last seven in League One and host Scunthorpe (11/4).


Bournemouth (23/20) won last five and travel to Preston (14/5).


Scunthorpe (11/4) won last three in League One and travel to Yeovil (23/20).


WHO'S NOT



Millwall (evens) lost last four in Championship and travel to Luton (100/30) in cup.


Nottingham Forest (7/5) lost last three in Championship and host Bolton (9/4).


Preston (14/5) lost last three in League One and host Bournemouth (23/20).


Oxford (19/10) lost last three on League Two and travel to Plymouth (17/10).


Torquay (13/5) lost last three in League Two and travel to Rochdale (6/5).


TRADERS' VIEW



Sky Bet: Luton v Millwall will be a fiercely contested encounter and there is sure to be a hostile atmosphere given the history between the two sides and given Luton have already knocked out Wolves and Norwich the 11/4 on a home victory looks tempting.


It is hard on the face of it to see a major shock coming in the FA Cup and even though Leeds knocked Spurs out in the last round it is hard to see them going to Premier League Champions Manchester City and winning and can be backed at 16/1 to do so.


Huddersfield play their first game under new manager Mark Robins and may be a touch of value at 13/5 to dispose of Wigan who are sure to rest players for the Premier League relegation battle.



Bet Victor: Having already disposed of Liverpool, Oldham will hope for a Merseyside double when Everton come to Boundary Park on Saturday evening and again we are keen to take on the Blues at 4/11. Everton have no Europe so a replay wouldn't be a major concern.


Liverpool do have Europe but for how much longer after their defeat to Zenit last night and I'm not convinced the Reds will be looking forward to the visit of Swansea. Brendan Rodgers and all Reds' fans will be hoping that the Swans will have one eye on next weekend's Capital One Cup. Once again we are happy to lay the top price 8/13 about Liverpool.



Paddy Power: Blackburn Rovers could very well be over priced to beat Arsenal at 11/1. The Gunners will have one eye on Tuesday's Champions League clash with Bayern Munich and will likely opt to rest some key men here. Blackburn have turned things around since Michael Appleton took charge and could provide the shock of this weekend's FA Cup fixtures.



Betfred: Our traders are happy to take on Millwall on Saturday who travel to non-league Luton. The Lions have lost their last four consecutive Championship games and are really out of sorts at the moment. If there is to be a shock in the fifth round, this looks to be the most likely.


We are also happy to be top price on Manchester United at home to Reading on Monday night. The Reds go into this following a tough test at the Bernabeu on Wednesday. Fergie might just be tempted to tinker with his starting line up so they may not be at full strength.


BOGEY TEAMS



Liverpool (3/5) have not scored against Swansea (5/1) in three previous Premier League meetings.


Cardiff (4/7) won six of last seven at home v Bristol City (6/1).


Birmingham (15/8) won seven of last eight at home v Watford (8/5).


BANKER



Walsall to beat Notts C at 5/4



Walsall have won their last five games at home and warrant support at 5/4 to topple Notts County. The visitors have won just two of their last 11 games and could face a struggle at the Banks's Stadium.


HOT-SHOTS



Walsall's Febian Brandy has three in his last five and is 5/8 to score v Notts County.


Yeovil's Paddy Madden has nine in his last six and is 21/20 to score v Scunthorpe.


TREATMENT ROOM



Northampton to win at Southend at 12/5.



Southend defenders Chris Barker (calf) and Mark Phillips (toe) will continue to miss out, along with the suspended Ryan Cresswell. Leading scorer Gavin Tomlin is not expected to return from his thigh problem until next month, while Michael Timlin (broken leg) is ruled out for the rest of the season. Midfielder Marc Laird picked up a hamstring injury during the first half of Tuesday night's 2-1 defeat to Cheltenham and misses out, as does Caolan Lavery (hamstring). Meanwhile, Kevan Hurst was absent from training on Thursday due to a virus.



Luton to beat Millwall DNB at 2/1.



Millwall boss Kenny Jackett will be without cup-tied duo Benik Afobe and Martyn Woolford. On-loan Derby forward Nathan Tyson remains sidelined with ankle ligament damage, while injured midfielder Chris Taylor is no closer to making a return to first-team action.



Huddersfield to beat Wigan at 11/4.



Huddersfield defender Peter Clarke and on-loan midfielder Neil Danns will return to contention for new manager Mark Robins' first game in charge. Alex Smithies is expected to return to the side following a family bereavement. Right-back Jack Hunt, midfielder Oliver Norwood and striker James Vaughan, all rested by starting on the substitutes' bench in midweek, will also return to contention.


FAMOUS LAST WORDS



Torquay to win at Rochdale 13/5.


After the midweek 3-1 defeat by Rochdale, Torquay boss Shaun Taylor said : "We are very disappointed but again it was another very good first-half performance. We conceded the goal just after half-time and that's made it difficult. Michael (Poke) has put his hand up for that one."



You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs


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