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Numbers Game: Blues to raid Anfield

Chelsea (13/5) to beat Liverpool at Anfield on Sunday and Southend (3/1) to win at York are this week's Numbers Game Value Bets.

Last Updated: 21/04/13 at 21:39 Post Comment   

Chelsea: Fancied to win at Anfield

Chelsea: Fancied to win at Anfield

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It's a difficult time of year to get one over the bookies, but @MattPBriggs' Numbers Game returns with a couple of Value Bets that should, like the name suggests, offer some late-season value.

All the usual stats and pointers are included as well as a few lines from the 'men in the know'.

Let me know your tips ahead of the weekend in the box below.

VALUE BET



Chelsea to beat Liverpool at 12/5 and Southend to beat York at 3/1.



Liverpool have won only one game against a top six side all season, and they look vulnerable at home to Chelsea. The Reds have won only eight of their 16 home games and Chelsea have chalked up eight away victories from 16.


Southend still have a squeak of a League Two play-off place and with 10 away wins from 22 games they are worth taking a chance on to win at struggling York, who have little room for error in their battle against the drop.


STEAMERS



Sky Bet say there have been plenty of moves in the Football League as their season near conclusion. Bolton have been backed into 8/11 from 5/6 to overcome Middlesbrough as they aim to grab a play-off place.


In League One promotion chasing Bournemouth have been punted as defeat is out of the question. The Cherries are now 4/11 having been chalked up at 1/2 originally.


Another big move is for Walsall who are now 4/9 having opened up at 8/13 to defeat relegated Bury, who managed to overcome Scunthorpe in midweek.


Super Sunday sees two massive games and City have been punted into 6/5 to overcome Spurs at White Hart Lane.


Liverpool look far to short to defeat Chelsea at Anfield at 6/5. The visitors can be backed at a tempting 11/5, though personally I would go for the draw at 12/5.



bet365 say Man City proving popular for their trip to nervy Spurs, whilst it's Rafa Benitez's side that attract the money on his return to Liverpool - the hosts look plenty short enough to me.


Elsewhere they're currently opposing Reading at Norwich.


WHO'S HOT



Bournemouth (4/9) won last seven in League One and host Carlisle (17/2).


Rotherham (5/4) won last three in League Two and travel to Plymouth (13/5).


WHO'S NOT



Bristol City (17/2) lost last three in Championship and travel to Hull (2/5) (Fri).


Stoke (13/5) lost last three in Prem and travel to QPR (13/10).


Tranmere (14/5) lost last four in League One and travel to Preston (6/5).


Crewe (9/2) lost last three in League One and travel to Yeovil (7/10).


Colchester (5/4) lost last three in League One and host Shrewsbury (12/5).


TRADERS' VIEW



Sky Bet: In Saturday's Premier League action we are happy to take on Arsenal who look plenty short enough at 4/6 to overcome Fulham. Despite losing 3-0 against Chelsea in midweek the Cottagers are usually pretty strong at home and it is hard to see the Gunners finding it as easy as the Blues.


Everton also look a very short price at 6/5 to come away from the Stadium Of Light with three points. The Wearsiders were highly impressive against Newcastle last week and Paolo Di Canio will have them fired up here.



Bet365: I fancy Villa to get something at Old Trafford against Manchester United, although the last time I said I fancied them at a big price they were hammered at Chelsea!


BOGEY TEAMS



Fulham (41/10) are unbeaten in their last four Premier League games v Arsenal (4/5).


Reading (22/5) have lost just one of their last seven league meetings v Norwich (3/4).


Queens Park Rangers (13/10) have won three of their last four league fixtures v Stoke (13/5).


Southampton (85/40) have won just one of their last six league meetings v Swansea (7/5).


West Brom (13/10) have won just two of their 13 Premier League meetings v Newcastle (12/5).


Aston Villa (12/1) have won just one of their last 34 Premier League games v Manchester United (2/7).


BANKER



MK Dons to beat Scunthorpe at 4/6.



There's no such thing as a 'banker' at this time of year, but MK Dons have found a bit of form and should be strong enough to sink Scunthorpe and, in turn, relegate them.


HOT-SHOTS



Leicester's Jeffrey Schlupp has two in two and is 10/3 to score at C Palace.


Oldham's Matt Smith has two in two and is 12/5 to score v Crawley.


Rochdale's Bobby Grant has three in four and is 2/1 to score at Oxford.


TREATMENT ROOM



Tottenham to beat Man City at 9/4.



Gareth Bale, Aaron Lennon and Jermain Defoe could all return against City, while the visitors are without David Silva and Sergio Aguero.



Hartlepool to beat Brentford at 17/4 (5.20pm).



Brentford will be without banned Tony Craig and Clayton Donaldson at Hartlepool.


FAMOUS LAST WORDS



Colchester to beat Shrewsbury at 13/10.



Speaking after the 2-0 midweek defeat by MK Dons, Colchester United manager Joe Dunne said: "I thought we were great, I'm really pleased with our performance. I'm delighted with our overall effort, our commitment. We didn't deserve to lose 2-0. The difference between the two teams was a bit of quality. We've got players coming off with cramp, we've got players dead on their feet in the changing room. They've given their all. We've hit the post, we've had scrambles, we've had shots. On another day we'd beat a team four or five nil. I'm really proud."



Aldershot to beat Dagenham at 23/20.



Speaking after the 2-0 midweek defeat by Southend, Aldershot Town manager Andy Scott said: "We probably dominated that game more than any all season. The two decisions for both the goals were really poor ones and the penalty, everyone in the ground cannot believe he gave that one - he's had a bad night. It's the story of the season, if you don't score goals you don't win games but we haven't got goalscorers who can put the ball into the net and you need someone to put it in."



Torquay to beat Morecambe at 11/5.



After the midweek win over Barnet, Torquay boss Alan Knill said: "I thought the performance was first class.The players showed great character to go forward, we didn't go into our shell as we may have done in the past."



You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs


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