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Numbers Game: Party poopers primed

League Two pair Bradford City (13/5) and AFC Wimbledon (9/4) are fancied to become party poopers in the final Numbers Game of the season.

Last Updated: 04/05/12 at 13:40 Post Comment   

Hanson: His Bradford side have been tipped up

Hanson: His Bradford side have been tipped up

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Last weekend's Numbers Game Value Bet was sunk, but the Banker was a winner as Everton (4/5) put Fulham to the sword. One of Sky Bet's Steamers also delivered as Birmingham (11/10) defeated Reading, while Nikica Jelavic (evens) and Troy Deeney (7/4) both scored to land two of the four Hot-Shots.

In the final edition of the Numbers Game this season AFC Wimbledon and Bradford are the Value Bet picks at 9/4 and 13/5 respectively as they look to poop Shrewsbury and Swindon's promotion parties, while Fulham (5/6) are the Banker. Meanwhile, @MattPBriggs' Value Bet will finish the season well in profit and is currently on £8.02 to a level £1 stake, while the Banker hasn't been as successful and is on -£3.49 to a level £1 stake. Let me know your betting thoughts on the weekend's fixtures and ideas for new features for the column in the comments box below.VALUE BET



Wimbledon to beat Shrewsbury at 9/4 and Bradford to beat Swindon at 13/5.


Shrewsbury secured promotion from League Two last weekend and after the Player of the Year awards this week there is an understandable 'job done' feel about the Shrews. Their trip to the capital could therefore be seen as a 'jolly up' and they look a team to swerve. Wimbledon have nothing to play for themselves, but boss Terry Brown was fuming after their 4-0 defeat to Barnet and told some of his players they could have played their last games for the club. With that in mind there could be a reaction and with four wins from their last five home games the Dons look good value.

Swindon have been crowned champions and might well have enjoyed a final-day cruise at Bradford before Paolo Di Canio opened his mouth. Di Canio said: "They (City) have a big disappointment this season and the manager is under pressure because the fans don't like him too much." That statement is sure to feature in Phil Parkinson's team talk and the Bantams, who have lost just once at Valley Parade this year, look decent value to end on a high.


STEAMERS



This week's big movers at Sky Bet are QPR. The Hoops have a must-win confrontation with Tony Pulis and his Stoke side and punters believe the Hoops will have enough to take their survival battle down to the wire, supporting them in from evens to 5/6 so far, a price which could go off even shorter.

Another team that have been strongly supported are Sheffield Wednesday. The Owls hold their destiny in their own hands and can secure promotion with a win. They opened up as short as 1/4 at home to Wycombe and punters are backing them to do the job in front of a bumper crowd, they have shortened into 1/5.


WHO'S HOT



Man City (4/6) won last four in Prem and face Newcastle (19/5) (Sun).


Sheff Weds (1/5) are 13 League One games unbeaten and host Wycombe (12/1).


MK Dons (8/13) won last four League One games and host Walsall (9/2).


Crewe (4/6) are 15 League Two games unbeaten and host Aldershot (4/1).


Shrewsbury (23/20) are nine League Two games unbeaten and travel to AFC Wimbledon (9/4).


Charlton (8/15) are six League Two games unbeaten and host Hartlepool (5/1).


WHO'S NOT



Wolves (4/1) are 12 Prem games without a win and host Everton (4/6) (Sun).


Norwich (12/1) have lost their last three Prem games and travel to Arsenal (1/5).


Sunderland (100/30) are six Prem games without a win and travel to Fulham (5/6) (Sun).


Aston Villa (3/1) are eight Prem games without a win and host Spurs (10/11) (Sun).


Macclesfield (11/1) are 22 League Two games without a win and travel to Southend (1/4).


Oldham (12/5) are eight League games without a win and host Carlisle (11/10).


Wycombe (12/1) are seven league games without a win and travel to Sheff Weds (1/5).


L Orient (evens) are seven league games without a win and host Rochdale (13/5).


Morecambe (13/5) are five league games without a win and travel to Gillingham (5/6).


Northampton (7/2) are five league games without a win and travel to Rotherham (4/5).


TRADERS' VIEW



Manchester City will be buoyant after winning a nervy match on Monday against their bitter rivals from the red side of the city. The Blues will be looking to get one hand on the Premier League trophy but come up against surprise package Newcastle. The Toon looked to have crashed out of the Champions League race after falling 4-0 away to Wigan, but bounced back with a massive victory at Stamford Bridge in midweek. The Sports Direct Arena will be rocking for this one, and the home crowd have only tasted defeat twice this season and Sky Bet would not be backing City to increase that figure at their current quote of 4/6.


BOGEY TEAMS



Liverpool (2/1) have won their last four games v Chelsea (11/8) in all competitions (Sat).


Chelsea have lost one of their last 33 FA Cup matches (excluding penalty shootout defeats).


Arsenal (1/5) have won each of their last four games v Norwich City (12/1).


Man City (4/6) have won seven of their last eight Premier League games v Newcastle (19/5) (Sun).


Sunderland (100/30) have only won three of the 15 Premier League meetings v Fulham (5/6) (Sun).


Cheltenham (21/10) have never won at Plymouth (5/4) in four visits.


Southend (1/4) won seven out of eight at home v Macclesfield (11/1).


BANKER



Fulham to beat Sunderland at 10/11.



Sunderland have been on the beach for weeks and have now gone six league games without a win. Fulham meanwhile, have won four of their last six home games and grabbed a 1-0 win at Liverpool in their last away game and will be full of confidence.


HOT-SHOTS



Man City's Sergio Aguero has five in four and is 11/8 to score at Newcastle.


Sheff Wed defender Miguel Llera has four in five and is 5/1 to score v Wycombe.


Southend's Ryan Hall scored last time out and is 12/5 to score v Macclesfield.


Swindon's Paul Benson scored twice last time out and is 11/8 to score at Bradford.


TREATMENT ROOM



Plymouth to beat Cheltenham at 5/4.


Cheltenham boss Mark Yates is expected to shuffle his pack with one eye on the forthcoming play-off campaign. Yates does have a fully-fit squad at his disposal but could rest key men.



Leyton Orient to beat Rochdale at evens.


Rochdale's Kevin Long has returned to parent club Burnley following the end of his loan spell, creating a vacancy alongside Kevin Amankwaah at centre-back. With Phil Edwards still absent due to a knee injury, Dean Holden could come in at the back, although 18-year-old Sam Minihan will be hoping to commemorate signing his first professional contract this week with a second senior start. Nicky Adams featured as a second-half substitute during last weekend's 2-1 defeat to MK Dons, but the midfielder is unlikely to feature having been placed on the transfer list.



FAMOUS LAST WORDS



Port Vale to beat Oxford at 21/10.


After Port Vale's 5-0 defeat to champions Swindon last week, Micky Adams said: "It was always going to be a big ask to come here and get a result against a team fighting for the title. We started well and probably had the better chances in the first half but once they scored the floodgates opened."



You can follow Matty on Twitter at @MattPBriggs.

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