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Numbers Game: Cod Army to topple Shots

The Numbers Game is back with a 9/5 Value Bet, all the usual pointers and news from the bookies of a £10,000 punt on Manchester City.

Last Updated: 27/02/13 at 13:17 Post Comment

Fleetwood: Fancied at Aldershot

Fleetwood: Fancied at Aldershot

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@MattPBriggs fancies Fleetwood (9/5) to do the business this weekend, while in-form Watford are the Banker.

All the usual pointers and statistics are included, while the bookies are hoping that Manchester United and Arsenal get turned over this weekend, while Betfred report taking a £10,000 bet on Manchester City to beat Chelsea on Sunday.

Let me know your fancies ahead of the weekend in the box below.

VALUE BET



Fleetwood to beat Aldershot at 9/5.



Fleetwood have won three of their last four away from home in League Two - including a 2-0 success over second-placed Port Vale and they look a value pick at Aldershot. The Cod Army are starting to find their feet under Graham Alexander and last week's slip up against Burton can be excused after they had goalkeeper Scott Davies sent off. The Shots sacked Dean Holdsworth despite beating Torquay 1-0, but they have only picked up six points from their last seven games.


STEAMERS



Sky Bet report that Everton have been heavily backed at 21/20 to gain three points at Norwich.


City take on Chelsea on Sunday and are well fancied at 19/20 to overcome Chelsea who left it late in their Europa League tie.


Southampton are quite popular to win away at Newcastle at 13/5, the Geordies are even money while I fancy the draw at 5/2.


The Capital One Cup Final has drawn huge interest and while Swansea at 4/11 have been thrown in all the accumulators, Bradford at 7/1 are hugely popular in singles.



Betfred say there's been a lot of interest so far on Manchester City at 10/11 to beat Chelsea on Sunday afternoon. We laid a £10k bet on City earlier this morning and they seem to be on everybody's accumulator at the moment.



Paddy Power With Everton's form of late showing signs of slowing down, having won one of five games in the league and conceding a late goal to Oldham in the cup to force a reply last weekend, it is easy to see why punters have shown interest in Norwich this weekend. Their home form after losing to Chelsea and Man City has seen them draw three in a row. Punters have decided that the early 11/4 was too big and that 13/5 is still fair value and we have seen plenty of business.



bet 365 say the Championship is all about Watford at home to Derby, whilst Middlesbrough are attracting some money after Millwall's hammering in midweek and further down it's Yeovil and Northampton that punters want to be with.


WHO'S HOT



Manchester United (4/7) won last three in Premier League and travel to QPR (6/1).


Barnsley (9/5) won last four in Championship and travel to Bristol C (7/4).


Hull (7/4) won last three in Championship and travel to Bolton (19/10).


Yeovil (11/5) won last eight in League One and travel to Doncaster (6/4).


Sheff Utd (5/2) won last three in League One and travel to Bournemouth (13/10).


WHO'S NOT



Millwall (11/4) lost last five in Championship and travel to Middlesbrough (11/10) (5.20pm).


Tranmere (17/10) lost last four in League One and travel to Colchester (9/5).


Stevenage (11/5) lost last three in League One and travel to Shrewsbury (7/5).


Torquay (13/5) lost last five in League Two and host Port Vale (11/10).


TRADERS' VIEW



Sky Bet: Manchester Utd look worth opposing at 1/2 away at QPR. Manchester City, Tottenham and Spurs have all failed to win at Loftus Road and Harry Redknapp seems to get his side well organised and difficult to break down against the top teams.


The treble with Arsenal (1/3), Manchester Utd and Everton is the one we are looking to avoid as punters are loving this. It pays just over 3/1 and will ensure a miserable day for us should it cop.



Paddy Power: Despite the fact this is a London derby, the 6/5 available on Tottenham this Monday against West Ham is grabbing my attention. Their run of late has been excellent in the Premier League not having lost a game since the start of December and with the form of their star man Gareth Bale I think they are decent value to pick up all the spoils on offer to them. With Chelsea facing a tough trip to Eastlands on Sunday to face Man City, Tottenham may well have the opportunity to swap places with them in the league and go third at a vital stage of the season.



Bet365: Much has been written about the demise of Arsenal and they face another under-achieving side in Aston Villa. Its the visitors that are attracting speculative wagers at 10/1 - and personally, I don't blame them and I have to be a layer of Arsenal this weekend.


QPR may be rock bottom but they've done us favours against the likes of Chelsea, Spurs and Man City over the last couple of months - more of the same please. The rest of the card looks trappy but we'd take another draw from Norwich that's for sure.



Betfred: The Premier League looks sewn up in our opinion so we are happy to take on Manchester United this weekend at 8/15. QPR have stopped both Manchester City and Tottenham scoring in their past couple of home games. There is no Wayne Rooney or Phil Jones for the Reds and Fergie may be tempted to rest a few key players again.


We are also laying Newcastle at 11/10 who go into their home clash with Southampton on the back of a European trip on Thursday. They will be without both Tim Krul and Yohan Cabaye who limped off against Metalist.


BOGEY TEAMS



Arsenal (4/11) have won only two of last six home games v Aston Villa (10/1) in the Premier League.


QPR (6/1) have taken just two points from 11 Premier League encounters v Manchester United (4/7).


Manchester City (evens) have won only one of last four Premier League matches v Chelsea (100/30) (Sun, 1.30pm)


Newcastle (6/5) have won seven of last eight Premier League home games v Southampton (11/4) (Sun, 1.30pm).


BANKER



Watford to beat Derby at 10/11.



The Hornets have been flying of late and they should be able to see off away-day strugglers Derby. The Rams have plenty of injuries to contend with and have lost nine of their 16 away trips, while Watford, who are a fair price, are fancied to chalk up a home win.


HOT-SHOTS



Hull's Gedo has scored three in his last three and is 16/5 to score at Bolton.


Crystal Palace's Glenn Murray has three in his last two and is 13/10 to score at Sheff Weds.


Yeovil's Paddy Madden has 10 in his last seven and is 6/4 to score at Doncaster.


TREATMENT ROOM



Millwall to win at Middlesbrough at 11/4.



Middlesbrough will be without striker Lukas Jutkiewicz, Stuart Parnaby and Kieron Dyer. Jonathan Woodgate (calf) and Seb Hines (knee), Andy Halliday and Ishmael Miller (both ankle) are doubtful. Justin Hoyte (hip) and midfielder Julio Arca (toe surgery) are still out.


FAMOUS LAST WORDS



Wycombe to beat Southend at 33/20.



Gareth Ainsworth felt his Wycombe side were unlucky to have two penalty appeals rejected in their 1-0 defeat to Bristol Rovers: "Jo (Kuffour) told me afterwards he thought at least one should have been given, but referees have a difficult job and sometimes decisions don't go your way. For half an hour we were the only team in it and I was delighted with how we were playing but, after Rovers scored, a few mistakes started to creep in."



Cardiff to win at Wolves at 29/20 (Sun).



Speaking after the 2-0 defeat by Brighton, Cardiff boss Malkay Mackay said: "In the first half we had four or five good chances to their one, and despite the goal before half-time we came out in the second half and penned them in and ended up with 22 attempts on target, which is incredible.I thought the goal was coming to be honest, because of the pressure we were having but, it was one of those nights where the goal led a charmed life."



You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs


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