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Numbers Game: Bale backed as MOTM

The Numbers Game reports Bet Victor have made Gareth Bale 4/1 to be man of the match against Arsenal and puts up Dagenham as the Value Bet.

Last Updated: 05/03/13 at 11:49 Post Comment

Gareth Bale: In fine form for Spurs

Gareth Bale: In fine form for Spurs

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Last week's Numbers Game was far from Matty Briggs' finest, but it still registered 11/4, 29/20 and 10/11 winners as Millwall, Cardiff and Watford (banker) all obliged.

This week the unique betting blog is back with another Value Bet, all the usual statistics and pointers and all the movers and shakers from the men in the know - the bookmakers, who report huge support for Bale, Tottenham and Southampton.

Let me know your fancies ahead of the weekend in the box below.

VALUE BET



Dagenham to beat Chesterfield at 6/4.



Dagenham carried on John Still's good work with a 1-1 draw at Bradford on Wednesday and but for a missed penalty they would have taken all three points. They put in a strong and disciplined performance and a repeat of that display will see them defeat a Chesterfield team who haven't scored for three games. After some decent money for the Daggers this week there is just about enough left in the price for me to back.


STEAMERS



Sky Bet say on Saturday the big teams in action have all been popular in multiples with Chelsea, Everton and Manchester Utd all featuring prominently at odds on. Chelsea have drifted from 4/11 to 2/5 in the wake of 'Rafa's rant' but this has not deterred punters from backing the Blues despite their problems.


Should those three win we will have all kinds money running on to Liverpool at 4/5 in the 5.30pm kick-off. Despite the Red lack of success of late punters still seem to regard them as a big force.


Southampton have been heavily backed and are now 4/5 from evens to beat bottom side QPR. People seem to have given up on Harry Redknapp producing miracles and pulling them out of the relegation zone.



Bet Victor say Southampton are on the drift to 10/11 as we have seen money for QPR into 33/10 from 7/2. This looks like last chance saloon for Harry Redknapp's men although they are already down.


Liverpool are always backed but at 17/20 they are surely too short at Wigan who are out to 7/2.


Barca are into 11/8 from 6/4 for revenge in the Bernabeu. Punters must believe that Jose Mourinho and his side will have one eye on the United clash midweek.



Paddy Power say there is plenty of money coming for Southampton this week as Mauricio Pochettino attempts to continue his solid start against a struggling QPR side. The 10/11 available is unlikely to last too long.


Tottenham are also proving popular, with Gareth Bale's outstanding form having the bookies running for cover. The 13/10 is likely to shorten before kick-off.


We are also seeing a flurry of bets on West Brom at 7/1 as Steve Clarke looks to take advantage of the managerial struggles at his former club.



bet365 report Leicester, Hull and Cardiff have all been backed and say to keep an eye on Bristol City at a big price on the sand at Blackpool.
League One sees good money for Colchester at Stevenage and Aldershot are being backed to beat Gillingham.



Betfred say our biggest loser is Southampton who have been very popular at 10/11 at home to QPR.


WHO'S HOT



Manchester United (4/11) won last four in Premier League and host Norwich (11/1).


Tottenham (13/10) won last three in Premier League and host Arsenal (9/4) (Sun, 4pm).


Arsenal (9/4) won last three in Premier League and travel to Spurs (13/10) (Sun, 4pm).


Watford (5/4) won last three in Championship and travel to Wolves (12/5) (Fri).


Hartlepool (4/1) won last three in League One and travel to Doncaster (17/20).


Oldham (5/2) won last three in League One and host Sheff Utd (5/4).


Burton (21/10) won last four in League Two and travel to Bristol Rovers (6/4).


WHO'S NOT



Sunderland (7/5) lost last three in Premier League and host Fulham (12/5).


Stevenage (29/20) lost last five in League One and host Colchester (23/10).


Bournemouth (7/5) lost last three in League One and travel to Orient (23/10).


Torquay (12/5) lost last seven in League Two and travel to Accrington (11/8).


TRADERS' VIEW



Sky Bet: Chelsea look a great lay given their home form and the spotlight is sure to be heavily on the manager Rafa Benitez.


On Sunday the North London derby takes centre stage, and Spurs are now 5/4 from 7/5 and are popular to gain a crucial three points. The draw looks quite tasty at 5/2 in what looks sure to be a close encounter, while Arsenal can be backed at 2/1.



Bet365: Benitez looks to be in charge for the game against West Brom and punters are prepared to have a go at 8/1, the same can't be said for Norwich at a similar fancy price with Man Utd the side for money.
Odds-on punters are also keen on Liverpool away at Wigan, that wouldn't concern me too much and there's good two-way trade in the Southampton v QPR and Swansea v Newcastle games.



Betfred: We are happy to take on Everton this weekend at 2/5. The Toffees are now seven points off fourth place, all realistic ambitions of Champions League football have disappeared. The small squad has been exposed by a lack of investment in January, and performances in the last month have been poor.


Another home side we are happy to lay is Chelsea at 4/11. We feel there is potential for a toxic atmosphere at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. Rafa criticised both the fans and the club after beating Middlesbrough on Wednesday and the Chelsea fans will not hold back with venting their anger. There is real pressure on Chelsea to win this game, as their top-four spot is now in jeopardy. West Brom have won their last two, and still have realistic European ambitions.



BetVictor: Spurs - aka Gareth Bale - have been well backed already and are 13/10 from 7/5 to beat Arsenal and we have seen interest in our Bale specials. Having been 33/1 on the January 31 to be named PFA Player of the Year he is now 8/13 with RvP out to 7/4 from 1/7. Bale was very well backed at 3/1 on Monday night to be named Sky's Man of the Match against West Ham but we have stuck our chest out and made him 4/1 against the Gunners. That can't last long given he has single-handedly carried Spurs into third place in the table but for some reason we want to lay the 4/1. He is one of two players in the big five leagues (England, France, Italy, Spain and Germany) to have scored six league goals from outside the box this season. He is 5/2 to net from outside the box against the Gunners.


We are keen to lay Everton at 2/5 against Reading. The Blues' European aspirations are fading fast and next weekend's FA Cup quarter-final final tie with Wigan is a massive one for the club. Reading have already beaten the Blues this season in the cup recently and we want to get Everton.



Paddy Power: With a Gareth Bale inspired Tottenham facing a disillusioned Arsenal side it is hard to see anything but a home win here, unless Arsene Wenger can raise the spirits of his deflated team.


Newcastle's price of 12/5 could look very big come kick-off. The Magpies are flying currently with their French team gelling together nicely. Swansea are likely to be a little worse for wear following their Carling Cup heroics and this provides a ample opportunity for Newcastle to pick up a valuable three points and all but end their relegation worries.


BOGEY TEAMS



Chelsea (4/9) have lost their last two Premier League games v WBA (8/1).


Southampton (10/11) have won only five of their last 17 league games against QPR (7/2).


Sunderland (7/5) have won only one of last seven Premier League games v Fulham (12/5).


Wigan (18/5) have lost only one of last six Premier League games v Liverpool (17/20).


Tottenham (13/10) have lost only one of last seven Premier League home games v Arsenal (9/4) (Sun, 4pm).


BANKER



Blackburn to beat Peterborough at 10/11.



Peterborough have upset the apple cart of several occasions this season, but they've failed to score in their last two games and Blackburn, since the arrival of Michael Appleton, are a tighter defensive unit. The Posh have lost 10 of their 16 games against top-half opposition and they look vulnerable against Rovers at Ewood Park.


HOT-SHOTS



Coventry's Leon Clarke has four in four and is 13/8 to score against Swindon.


Bolton defender Craig Dawson has three in two and is 11/2 to score at Barnsley.


Aston Villa's Christian Benteke has six in his last seven and is 5/2 to score v Man C (Mon).


TREATMENT ROOM



Torquay to win at Accrington at 12/5.



Torquay look set to be boosted by the return of captain Lee Mansell as they head to Accrington looking to end a seven-game losing streak. Boss Alan Knill also hopes to have at least one new face on board before the trip especially in the absence of centre back Aaron Downes.


FAMOUS LAST WORDS



Sunderland to beat Fulham at 7/5.



Speaking after last weekend's defeat to West Brom, Sunderland boss Martin O'Neill said: "I felt we should have got something out of the game. That's the last three matches we've played where we shouldn't have been beaten. The big decision was the penalty kick which was given against us. But then there was a similar situation at the other end where it wasn't

given. I've seen both of them back. Both are penalties. We should've scored two or three times before West Brom's second goal.''



Rochdale to beat Morecambe at 9/4.



After the midweek 3-0 defeat at home to Accrington, Rochdale manager Keith Hill said: "We've witnessed two spectacular goals from the opposition. The first one was right out of the top drawer and the second one equalled it. For 75 minutes I was reasonably happy. I thought we were the better footballing side and we just haven't got that penetrative edge in front of goal at the minute."


You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs


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