Numbers Game: Blues and Reds to slip up

Chelsea and Liverpool both look too short this weekend and the Numbers Game thinks the value is with their opponents West Brom and Wigan.

Last Updated: 20/11/12 at 08:54 Post Comment

Fernando Torres and Luis Suarez: Could struggle

Fernando Torres and Luis Suarez: Could struggle

Stoke (10/11) made it five winning Banker bets from six with last weekend's triumph over QPR and the Treatment Room and Famous Last Words sections continued their fine run of late. Dagenham (13/5), Charlton (19/10) and Morecambe (5/4) all came good for @MattPBriggs' Numbers Game in another profitable weekend.

This weekend Premier League heavyweights Chelsea and Liverpool are opposed with DNB tips for West Brom (85/40) and Wigan (9/2). The Banker is back with another rock-solid 21/20 shot from the Championship and there are also 16/5, 11/4, 9/4, 7/4 23/20 and 6/4 tips from the Football League, plus the views from the bookies.

Let me know your thoughts on Twitter or in the box below and leave me your best bet of the weekend.

VALUE BET



WBA to beat Chelsea DNB at 85/40 & Wigan to beat Liverpool DNB at 9/2.



West Brom beat Chelsea 1-0 the last time the two sides met in March and they are worth another shot after winning five of their six home games this season. And another team worth supporting are Wigan, who have won two of their five away games - including a recent win at Tottenham. Liverpool have only recorded one home win in the Premier League and the 19/4 DNB about the Latics is too good to turn down.


STEAMERS



Bet365 say there is a few quid for the Baggies to beat Chelsea and there is money for AFC Wimbledon to beat Aldershot.



Sky Bet say the two Manchester clubs have been extremely popular and will be in all the accumulators this weekend. We really need one of those to slip up or we're going to be up against it.


Hull are going well in the play-off places and will fancy their chances against a Birmingham side who have been very inconsistent at St Andrew's this season.


Bournemouth haver been in great form since Eddie Howe returned to the club and they will fancy their chances against an Oldham side without a win in four.



Paddy Power say following last week's 3-3 draw away at Arsenal, punters have decided that Fulham are the team to side with this week.

They face a really out of form side in the shape of Martin O'Neill's Sunderland who haven't won a match since September. We opened up Fulham at 4/5 and had to cut their price twice to a current offering of 3/4. Their home form this year is very solid having only been overturned by current Premier League Champions Man City. With an in form Dimitar Berbatov looking to add to his already impressive haul of five goals in seven games, Fulham are worthy favourites and look set to bag all three points on offer this weekend.



Bet Victor say Manchester United have been very popular at 7/1 to win from behind against Norwich at Carrow Road. Having conceded first in seven of their Premier League games and won five of them from behind, the statisticians obviously believe 7s is too big.


WHO'S HOT



Man Utd (4/9) won last five Premier League games and travel to Norwich (7/1) (5.30pm).


Crystal Palace (21/20) won last four Championship games and host Derby (3/1).


Bournemouth (8/11) won last three League One games and host Oldham (9/2).


MK Dons (17/10) won last three League One games and travel to Tranmere (9/5) (Fri).


WHO'S NOT



Bristol C (11/5) lost last seven Championship games and host Blackpool (5/4).


Barnsley (11/2) lost last four Championship games and face Bolton (4/7).


Peterborough lost last three Championship games and host Blackburn (5.20pm).


Portsmouth (23/10) lost last four League One games and host Doncaster (7/4).


TRADERS' VIEW



Bet365: The Manchester pair cost us a few quid again last weekend with their usual winning from behind antics and both are short for victory on Saturday. In fact, Man City are far too short in my opinion and I'm hopeful of Aston Villa getting something at the Etihad.


Wigan love playing Liverpool and at the prices you have to take on Brendan Rodgers' side again.


The Championship, what a division! I hardly fancy any of the favourites, so teams like Bolton, Blackpool, Burnley, Cardiff and Leicester maybe worth being against, whilst Brighton look short for the trip to Huddersfield.


Walsall aren't in great nick and we need to be short about Crawley and at odds-on Rotherham need to be swerved v Cheltenham.



Sky Bet: Arsenal look so fragile at the moment they could struggle to contain the likes of Gareth Bale and Jermain Defoe. This is a real chance for Spurs to get one over on their rivals.


Liverpool as usual are the bookmakers' favourite side! They're over reliant on Luis Suarez for goals and Wigan showed with their deserved victory at Spurs that they're capable of pulling off a big away win.


Injuries and suspensions starting to have a big impact on Neil Warnock's threadbare Leeds squad playing against a Millwall side who have a great record against the whites in recent years.



Paddy Power: Since losing 3-2 at home to Tottenham at the end of September, Man Utd have won five games on the bounce and they bring this form to Carrow Road where they face Norwich this weekend. The 4/9 on offer about the Red Devils taking the spoils seems a fair enough offering for a team that don't seem to know when they are beaten this season. Norwich go in to this game in decent form themselves but facing a Manchester United team in this form may be a bridge too far for them. So, my money will be following the fortunes of Alex Ferguson's men this weekend.



BetVictor: We're keen to lay Arsenal at 19/20. Hardly vintage Spurs or Arsenal sides.


We're happy to lay WBA (3/1) against Chelsea. The Baggies have played well this season especially at the Hawthorns but the Blues could hit them on the break especially if Torres turns up.


We're happy to lay Reading at 7/2 against Everton, who are good on the road. They will miss the pace of Kevin Mirallas, however and I fancy the draw.


BOGEY TEAMS



Liverpool (4/9) have won none of the last five v Wigan (7/1).


Newcastle (10/11) have won five and lost none of the last seven v Swansea (10/3) in all competitions.


Everton (5/6) have won four and lost just one of the six league matches v Reading (7/2).


West Brom (31/10) lost 13 of last 14 in all competitions v Chelsea (10/11).


Manchester United (4/9) have won 12 and lost just one of last 14 league meetings v Norwich (7/1).


Fulham (3/4) have won five and lost just one of eight home Premier league meetings v Sunderland (17/4) (Sun).


West Ham (evens) have won four and lost one of last five home games v Stoke (31/10) in all competitions (Mon).


BANKER



Crystal Palace to beat Derby at 21/20.



Palace demand more respect after winning five of their eight home games and the 21/20 available to sink Derby looks too good to turn down. Last week's win at Peterborough helped them back to the top of the table and they should be good enough to see off a Derby side that has lost their last two away games at Peterborough and Millwall.


HOT-SHOTS



Bradford defender Rory McArdle is 33/1 to score first v Exeter and 8/1 to score anytime.


Wimbledon defender George Francomb is 40/1 to score first v Aldershot and 16/1 to score anytime.


TREATMENT ROOM



Millwall to beat Leeds at evens (Sun).



Leeds will be without the injured Rodolph Austin, while Michael Brown and Jason Pearce are both banned.



Chesterfield to beat Oxford at 6/4.



Spireites manager Paul Cook could welcome back highly-rated keeper Tommy Lee and striker Marc Richards.



Cheltenham to beat Rotherham at 16/5.



Millers manager Steve Evans has described his side's injury crisis as "emergency ward nine" ahead of the Robins' visit. The hosts, who were thumped 5-0 at Dagenham last week, could have up to nine players missing, although Evans is hoping to have defender Craig Morgan available. David Noble is also battling with an ankle problem. Kari Arnason, Lionel Ainsworth (both shoulder), Kieran Agard (thigh), Dale Tonge (knee/ankle), Scott Shearer (knee), Jamie Devitt (hamstring) and Mitchell Rose (leg) are all still occupying an over-crowded treatment room.


FAMOUS LAST WORDS



Sunderland DNB to beat Fulham at 11/4.


Speaking after last weekend's 2-1 defeat at Everton, Sunderland boss Martin O'Neill said: "We were absolutely brilliant in the first half. We created a number of chances in the game. We've gone in 1-0 at half-time but it should have been three. We were obviously going to be put under pressure in the second half. I thought we were coping manfully with that. But Everton are very strong and very resilient, they keep hammering away. They got a break and got the equalising goal and then got a real decent break for their winning goal. We played a side here who are challenging for the Champions League, but we have come to Goodison Park here and played brilliantly."



Doncaster to beat Portsmouth at 7/4.


Speaking after the 1-0 defeat to Bournemouth, Doncaster boss Dean Saunders said: "I thought we played really well and it's a goalkeeping error for the goal. It was a blatant penalty on David Syers, he's just about to put the ball in the net and the defender has pushed him in the back. It's a blatant penalty - I've seen it again. And then the ball comes out to (Iain) Hume and I though he was going to score. But overall I thought we looked really good at times."



Crewe to beat Shrewsbury at 9/4.


Talking after last weekend's 2-1 defeat at Orient, Graham Turner said: I think every match (we go into) we're going to turn it around. There were one or two more promising signs (against Orient). I think one or two of the games recently we've forgotten to pass the ball. Early season we really got some good movement, passing and even when we lost we had long periods of good play. And I think because of the circumstances we find ourselves in, one or two players became a little bit anxious and we've forgotten to get on the end of the ball and pass it. There were signs a little bit that that was starting to come back."



You can follow me on Twitter at @MattPBriggs


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