Don't be late on Baines price

Our tipster Andy Schooler expects Everton to see off Southampton tonight, with Leighton Baines to the fore.

Last Updated: 21/01/13 at 16:47 Post Comment

Leighton Baines: Too big at 14s for man of the match honours

Leighton Baines: Too big at 14s for man of the match honours

Our Andy Schooler expects Everton to see off Southampton tonight, with Leighton Baines to the fore.

Southampton v Everton (2000 GMT)

This looks a good time for Everton to be heading to Southampton and odd-against quotes look worth snapping up.

Yes, Southampton have only lost twice in their last 12 league games to pull themselves into a position of safety but last week's events at St Mary's have surely upset the applecart at just the wrong time.

The bizarre decision to ditch Nigel Adkins, the man who had led the revivial after a shaky start to the season, looks set to lead to a somewhat unpleasant atmosphere on Monday night. Certainly if Everton score early - and they've scored more goals in the first half of games than the second this season - then fan unrest could easily play a part in the contest.

Even if you disagree and feel that off-the-pitch events bear no relevance, a look at Southampton's record against the better sides will show why I'm confident about an away win here.

They've played 11 games against sides in the top half of the table thus far and have drawn four of those and lost seven, conceding 27 goals in the process.

Here they go up against a team proving very hard to beat - it's just three league defeats this season for David Moyes' men and just one in their last 11.

The Blues, who have already won at Newcastle, West Ham, Swansea and Villa this season, finally kept a clean sheet last weekend which should boost defensive confidence and although they were also shut out by Swansea in that game, in general they've been full of goals this season with plenty of contributors throughout the team.

One of those is Leighton Baines and for those of you looking for a bigger price, the 14/1 about the left-back being man of the match looks large.

Baines' biggest strength may not be his defending but I doubt that will stop the Sky Sports team raving about his ability as going forward he is arguably the best full-back in the league.

His link with Steven Pienaar down the Everton left is a potent one - and the pundits aren't shy to mention it.

Expect Baines' stunning free-kick against Newcastle to form part of the pre-match analysis. He also takes penalties - always an added bonus here - and scored one against Cheltenham in another recent televised game.

You always need to remember that this market is decided by Sky and that they will look at the game from a certain perspective. It's hard to imagine Baines not being part of their pre-match talk - just as Marouane Fellaini will, as both have enjoyed impressive seasons to date.

Yet while Fellaini is 7/1 market leader, Baines is twice the price. For a player who plays for the match favourites, loves to get forward and carries goal threat, it's simply too big.

Talking of big prices, it would be amiss not to mention that an Everton 2-1 win can be backed at 8/1.

Everton's last five Premier League wins have all come by that scoreline, including away successes at Newcastle and West Ham.

As previously mentioned, the Toffees haven't been too solid at the back - and Southampton certainly aren't easy to keep off the scoresheet - so those who like to play the correct score market should consider this.

Verdict: Southampton 1 Everton 2

  • The match is being televised live in the UK on Sky Sports.


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