I always feel that you can take on teams who struggle for goals yet are odds-on, and that's the case when Hull host Crystal Palace on Saturday.
Yes, Palace have struggled, but they've shown signs of fight lately and gained a deserved draw with Everton last time. Since Ian Holloway left they've been trying not to lose, rather than going all-out to win, and it's definitely helped.
That means this shouldn't be easy for a Hull side which lacks a real scoring threat and I'm getting with Palace and the draw here.
A similar logic applies for Stoke, who've scored just three times at home this season and even managed to lose to Norwich, whose away record is extremely poor.
They welcome Sunderland who have clearly improved under Gus Poyet, and I just don't want to be taking evens about a team who I can't rely on to find the goals required to take all three points.
Stoke have already drawn three times at home this season and the draw is an angle I like a lot this weekend. Most punters want to take an opinion one way or the other, but there's nothing wrong with taking the opinion that the draw is the most likely outcome yet it's seldom priced that way.
Don't forget, with the pressure on at the bottom of the table already there are plenty of sides who will set up to get a draw and we could see a few on Saturday, including both the above games.
I also think Southampton could get a point at Arsenal. Don't get me wrong, Arsenal can blitz anyone on their day but this might be the time to take them on, on the back of the international break and of course that defeat at Old Trafford.
There's been nothing fortunate about Saints' performances at United and Liverpool this season and with four points from those two games I'm prepared to back them to add another here.
Everton v Liverpool is another tight one in which I'll take the draw of the 90-minute prices, but the bet I really like is Romelu Lukaku to score Everton's first goal at 5/2.
Most punters focus their attentions on the first scorer betting, but with Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge in opposition the angle here is surely to back Lukaku simply to score first for Everton.
There are certain sides - Newcastle are another with Loic Remy - who have a clear standout threat when it comes to scoring and Everton are one of them. Lukaku is by far and away their most likely scorer and it's worth remembering he scored twice against Liverpool when playing for West Brom last year.
Dale was a guest on this week's Trading Views Podcast along with Sky Sports' Pete O'Rourke and our very own Ben Coley. Listen here: