Dale Tempest is a former professional footballer who now works for a bookmaker.
Fulham, Huddersfield and Colchester were among his clubs during a 16-year career - he knows exactly how the game is played.
These days in his role as Sky Bet's public relations director - you may have seen him on Sky Sports News - he's very much got his finger on the pulse of the markets as both a punter and a bookie.
His regular Friday column explores the mindset of the bookies and highlights the best bets for the weekend's action.
Here is his take on this weekend's Premier League matches.
You have key players who move markets. There are not many around but Gareth Bale is one of them.
He's the hottest property in English football right now and when he gets injured there are significant price moves; that's what's happened this week.
However, for serious players there becomes a point when the price move is overdone and I think we're getting to that point with Tottenham v Everton this weekend.
Players take more responsibility when a star man is not available. They almost step back at times when someone like Bale is playing so well - they give him the ball and let him get on with it. But when he's not there others have to take on the responsibility and that could well be the case on Sunday.
Another thing to consider is that Everton are without two key players of their own in Steven Pienaar and Marouane Fellaini (both are suspended).
Tottenham are now significantly odds-against and that looks interesting to me.
Every team has key individuals and they are not always the star players.
Youssouf Mulumbu is a case in point. He's been outstanding at West Brom this season. Their dip in form earlier in the campaign coincided with him and Claudio Yacob being out.
Mulumbu is a real enforcer. He gets the ball back and cares for the ball.
I remember backing against the Baggies when he was out earlier in the season - it just looked obvious, although may be not to those punters who only focus on the star names.
Admittedly Arsenal will also be without a key man in Jack Wilshere but they are a team in form and I'm interested in quotes around even money about them winning here.