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Spurs the value after over-reaction

Our tipsters are siding with Tottenham and Everton on Sunday's Premier League coupon. Check out our match-by-match guide.

Last Updated: 22/12/13 at 14:46 Post Comment

No Premier League side has won more points away from home than Tottenham

No Premier League side has won more points away from home than Tottenham

Spurs head to Southampton as outsiders on Sunday and our Ben Coley feels that's a big over-reaction by the layers.

The day's second game sees Everton head to Swansea and Andy Schooler is siding with the in-form Blues, who have lost only once so far this season in the top flight.

Southampton v Tottenham (1330 GMT)

Rarely am I genuinely surprised by a price but, while there are reasons for it, I must admit to being close to astonished to see Spurs available at 2/1 here. Win, lose or draw, that to me looks way too big and the same goes for the subsidiary markets; they're 4/7 to avoid defeat and 11/10 in the draw-no-bet market. So, take your pick, and for me it's draw no bet at odds-against because we have to acknowledge that they're a side lacking in confidence. There's no ignoring the fact that Spurs are (at the time of writing) managerless, and they lost from a winning position on Wednesday, going out of the Capital One Cup at the hands of West Ham. Prior to that, they were simply awful against Liverpool and that's not the only hiding Spurs have received this season. But let's not get carried away. This is still a side three points ahead of Southampton, one with five wins from eight on the road and defeats only at Arsenal and Manchester City - no side in the league has secured more points on their travels. Their last two Premier League away games have resulted in victories at Fulham and Sunderland, while before their defeat at City, Spurs held an impressive Everton side to a 0-0 draw at Goodison Park. All this evidence points to them being deserving of favouritism against Southampton who, lest we forget, have gone five games without victory in the league. Yes, some of these games have been difficult and they did well to hold Manchester City to a draw, but on the other hand they lost 3-2 at home to Aston Villa and the signs are that their early-season form won't be sustained - even then, both Sunderland and West Ham managed draws at St Mary's. It must be noted that Morgan Schneiderlin and Adam Lallana should return to the starting XI for the hosts and Spurs do have injury problems, but Michael Dawson is expected to play and there was promise in Tim Sherwood's decision to go with two up front against West Ham - Spurs should've been away and gone by half-time. There's no denying that Spurs are in a bad place at the moment but their away form and the quality they have among their ranks means they shouldn't be underdogs here. It's worth adding that four of Spurs' five away Premier League wins have been by a goal and BetVictor's 4/1 that they secure another such result is also worth an interest. Whichever way you look at it, though, the value here is surely with the visitors.

Verdict: Southampton 1 Tottenham 2 (BC)

Opta stats:

Tottenham have won three of the last four Premier League meetings with the Saints, including both matches last season.

Tottenham have hit more shots on target away from home than any other Premier League team this season (47).

Only Arsenal have picked up as many away points as Tottenham in the 2013/14 Premier League (16).


Back Spurs to win 2-1 at 9/1 with Sky Bet!


Swansea v Everton (1600)

Thanks to an historic victory at Old Trafford and an impressive display against Arsenal in front of the TV cameras, people are beginning to realise that Everton are a very good side these days. With his tactics and deadline-day singings, Roberto Martinez has added to the solid foundations left by David Moyes. His side remain hard to beat - only Manchester City have seen off the Toffees so far - but crucially now look more likely to win games, particularly away from home. With that in mind, I'm happy to side with them in the draw-no-bet market at 4/5. Everton's record suggests the chance of losing money is slim, while they have the form to win this game, just as they did - comfortably - last season. That 3-0 success saw the Blues better in almost every department. Certainly they won the physical battle and while Marouane Fellaini may have gone, Gareth Barry and James McCarthy are players who harry to protect their back four and big reasons why Everton have lost just that single game. Swansea, who have failed to score against Everton in all four of their Premier League meetings, have not performed to the high standards they have set themselves and they arrive here with just two wins from their last 12 games in all competitions. Injuries have not helped their cause and they continue to prove a problem with Nathan Dyer (who has been in the goals of late) and keeper Michel Vorm joining the absentees for this one, while Angel Rangel is suspended. Throw in suggestions that manager Michael Laudrup is a target for Spurs and I simply have to go with the formbook, using the safety net of the specific market.

Verdict: Swansea 0 Everton 2 (AS)

Opta stats:

The Swans have failed to score in all four Premier League meetings against Everton, losing three and drawing one.

Everton have never lost in any competition to Swansea (W12 D5 L0).

Only Southampton have conceded as few goals as Everton in the Premier League this season (15).

Everton defenders have supplied seven goals in the Premier League this season, more than at any other club.


Back Everton to win 2-0 at 10/1 with Sky Bet!


  • Both matches are being televised live in the UK on Sky Sports.

  • Posted at 2020 GMT on 19/12/2013.


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