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The Premier League Sack Race Guide

Phil Brown is 4/6 to be the first manager out of his job, but Gary Megson looks a much better bet at 11/2. Sarah Winterburn takes a look at the five leading contenders for the boot this Christmas...

Last Updated: 24/11/09 at 16:22 Post Comment

Phil Brown is 4/7 to be the first manager out of his job, but Gary Megson looks a much better bet at 11/2. Sarah Winterburn takes a look at the five leading contenders for the boot this Christmas...


Phil Brown - Hull City (4/6)
League placing: 16th
Recent form: Two wins in their last ten.
Upcoming games: Everton (h), Man City (a), Aston Villa (a), Blackburn (h), Arsenal (a)

Frankly, odds of 4/6 now look plain daft as Hull's plundering of four points from their last two games gives Brown a fair amount of breathing space. Would Hull fans have been happy in the summer of 2008 if you'd offered them 16th in the Premier League in November 2009? They would have bitten your hand off and said 'thank you very much' in that curious accent of theirs. It's no stretch to say that the return of Jimmy Bullard may well have saved Brown his job. Four points from a run of four games ahead of an inevitable Arsenal tonking should see him keep it. For now.


Paul Hart - Portsmouth (5/2)
League placing: 20th
Recent form: Two wins in six followed seven straight defeats.
Upcoming games: Man United (h), Burnley (h), Sunderland (a), Chelsea (a), Liverpool (a).

Again, these are false odds as although Portsmouth are bottom of the table, there have been few mumblings from club or fans that Hart should be sacrificed. He's doing as good a job as anyone would expect with a skeletal squad of unproven loan signings and players who have failed elsewhere in the Premier League, and their defensive record is better than a a certain club on Merseyside. Actually, make that both clubs on Merseyside. They have lost five games by a 1-0 scoreline - hardly the sign of a team not playing for their manager. Hart will stay as long as Portsmouth are in touch, so looking at that fixture list, a win over Burnley is essential.


Gary Megson - Bolton (11/2)
League placing: 18th
Recent form: Five consecutive defeats in all competitions.
Upcoming games: Fulham (a), Wolves (a), Man City (h), West Ham (h), Wigan (a)

This is where the sensible money should go in this market. The fans hate him, some of the players apparently hate him and a very favourable set of fixtures could prove to be more a blessing than a curse. Could the Trotters board afford not to act if those five games fail to reap a win and Bolton remain in the relegation zone? While Brown can point to inflated expectations, Hart to extenuating circumstances and Gianfranco Zola to the fans' support, Megson has got no argument in his locker. After all, this is the man who spent £8m-plus on Johan Elmander. Oh and £2m on Danny Shittu.


Rafa Benitez - Liverpool (7/1)
League placing: 7th
Recent form: One win in ten games in all competitions.
Upcoming games: Everton (a), Blackburn (a), Arsenal (h), Wigan (h), Portsmouth (a)

Rafa Benitez will not lose his job if Liverpool fail to reach the knock-out stages of the Champions League. Rafa Benitez will not lose his job if Liverpool go into the new year five points adrift of this season's Champions League places. It will only become an issue if Liverpool drift further away from fourth - and the patchy form of Spurs, Villa and Man City are conspiring against that predicament. Ten points from those five upcoming games should put Liverpool firmly back on track and the knives can be put back in their scabbards for a few more months at least.


Gianfranco Zola - West Ham (7/1)
League placing: 17th
Recent form: No wins in 12 but only one defeat in their last six.
Upcoming games: Burnley (h), Man United (h), Birmingham (a), Bolton (a), Chelsea (h).

Zola has what Louis Walsh would call 'the likeability factor', which is a handy armour against pressure when you're a football manager. How Megson would love a dose of whatever magic Zola casts over fans, players and pundits, which has insulated him against criticism that his team has thrown away lead after lead this season. Financial restraints have hampered Zola but how many other managers would have got away with signing a player for £9m and then swapping him for an unknown defender? Decent results against Burnley, Birmingham and Bolton should see those sack odds lengthen further.

The rest of the big betting...Hughes and Martinez at 14/1, McLeish and McCarthy at 20/1.

All odds are of course courtesy of Sky Bet.

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