Arsene Wenger will not walk; he will have to be pushed
“To walk where?” replied an incredulous Arsene Wenger in January 2015. “After 18 years, it would not be serious to walk away for losing one game.”
The question was whether the Frenchman would have left Arsenal had they lost the 2014 FA Cup final. The Gunners recovered from a two-goal deficit to beat Hull City after extra-time and deliver a first trophy in nine years, but the outcome was almost completely different.
Wenger entered that cup final with mere months remaining on his contract, and he would be a fool not to recognise success at Wembley was a key factor behind the new three-year deal he signed within a fortnight. The FA Cup had saved him.
In two of the subsequent three campaigns, Wenger has been able to rely on that same rescue plan. FA Cup victories in 2015 and 2017 masked severe deficiencies as the club’s Premier League performance gradually deteriorated. They topped the table for 21 gameweeks before finishing fourth in 2013/14, one gameweek before finishing third in 2014/15, and two gameweeks before finishing fifth last season.
Which brings us to Sunday, and the further unravelling of yet another below-par season. The only differences this year are that Arsenal have not been higher than fourth at the end of any given gameweek this season, while Wenger cannot rely on the FA Cup to save him; Championship side Nottingham Forest have ended their defence at the first hurdle.
Arsenal were not the only one of the Premier League’s big six to make wholesale FA Cup third-round changes in an attempt to preserve their energy for the marathon sprint towards Champions League qualification. Tottenham made eight to beat Wimbledon, Liverpool made six against Everton, Manchester United made five against Derby and Manchester City made four against Burnley. But the key is that each side called on their squad depth to progress. Arsenal and Chelsea’s nine changes backfired.
But Chelsea have a Champions League last-16 tie against Barcelona to concentrate on; the biggest obstacle Arsenal face against Ostersunds in the Europa League is the same as it was here: themselves.
A starting line-up featuring seven internationals, while not even close to a full-strength side, should have been enough to dispatch Forest. This was a Premier League team facing one eight points clear of relegation in the Championship. This was a Premier League manager facing a second-tier caretaker; Forest sacked their own boss less than a week ago.
Making changes to the starting line-up is fair enough, but having no potentially game-changing senior players on the bench is outrageous hubris from Wenger. Totally deserved to lose
— Dan Bridges (@DanBridges31) January 7, 2018
Yet the hosts never looked in danger, and never once fell behind. Eric Lichaj’s first-half double laid the groundwork for a deserved win, and two second-half penalties both dismissed any hopes of a comeback, and kept ludicrous claims of an FA conspiracy alive.
In truth, the only higher power working against Arsenal is Wenger himself, and those who enable and encourage him to continue as manager. He has overseen gradual decline at the Emirates Stadium, and has been permitted to do so by those who should hold him accountable for failure.
Wenger’s future will not be decided on the basis of this one game, but it should never have been allowed to get this far anyway. Arsenal are now out of the FA Cup, as close to Liverpool in fourth as they are Burnley in seventh, and the prospect of either Carabao Cup or Europa League victories being sold as season-savers is difficult to savour. If Wenger will not walk, he surely eventually has to be pushed.
Matt Stead