F365 Says: Southampton going down with or without Hughes

Matt Stead

Had Mark Hughes been afforded the option of handpicking his first two games as Southampton manager, he would surely not have changed the cards he was dealt. An FA Cup quarter-final with Wigan provided an opportunity to settle the nerves and start on a positive note against lower-league opposition; a trip to West Ham meant Saints could benefit from the infighting that was threatening to engulf a direct rival.

“I don’t think it’ll affect us,” said the Welshman before kick-off on Saturday, discussing whether a repeat of the pitch-invading scenes in West Ham’s last home game could intimidate his players. “Clearly if we start positively and get on the front foot it might affect West Ham in a negative way.”

Yet if the plan was to unsettle West Ham, to frustrate and exasperate the supporters and encourage them to implode as spectacularly as they did against Burnley, it was foiled within 20 minutes. The Hammers took an early lead through Joao Mario before Marko Arnautovic poured salt in the gaping wound to further condemn his former manager.

West Ham were a team transformed, but it was as if nothing had changed for Southampton. The aimless, rudderless play that had been allowed to fester under Mauricio Pellegrino was still present. Players were constantly misplacing passes and failing to offer any attacking threat. By half-time a West Ham side with just one win in their last eight matches had carved the visitors open once more in exhilarating style. Three first-half goals were enough to render the second half a formality.

Hughes described the fact that Southampton are mired in a relegation battle as “a little bit baffling” earlier this week, and yet this was a perfect 90-minute explanation for their predicament. This may be a squad that contains a Champions League finalist, a European Championship winner and numerous Premier League stalwarts, but it is a collection of random ingredients thrown together in the hope of creating an edible meal. Hughes sits at the bottom of a list of those to blame at St Mary’s; he is simply the latest chef to feel the heat of a problematic kitchen.

“The issue, prior to my arrival, was that confidence had been deflated a little bit,” Hughes stated matter-of-factly ahead of Saturday’s game, but Southampton’s crisis has been due more to a lack of a coherent plan than anything else. They rank seventh in terms of average possession and pass accuracy in the Premier League this season, but are hardly a team dominant on the ball. Only seven sides have more shots per game, yet only three sides have scored fewer goals. Along with Stoke, they are arguably the two most unidentifiable, unoriginal teams in the top flight based on style, all the way down to their red-and-white stripes. The Welshman should take no pride in being the common denominator.

Saturday’s surrender simply proved the folly in Southampton’s decision to appoint Hughes. The flames of mediocrity have been burning in the background throughout the season, the club opting to leave them unattended. Only when the roof had collapsed did they decide to call a firefighter.

Therein lies the danger of almost committing to disaster. Southampton have been stumbling towards relegation since August, but have rarely actually been in the bottom three. The players have chronically underperformed and the hierarchy made the mistake of thinking they could rely on the positive effects of a new manager if push came to shove.

The problem is that Hughes has never been the sort of boss to evoke the fabled new-manager bounce. The Welshman has been appointed by Premier League clubs twice before in mid-season, first by Blackburn in September 2004, then by QPR in January 2012. He won just one of his first ten games with the former, and two of his first ten with the latter. Hughes guided both to survival, but was afforded considerably more time to work with.

He will not benefit from the same commodity at St Mary’s. Hughes has seven games left, including visits to Arsenal, Leicester and Everton, and home games with Chelsea and Manchester City; Swansea are their final remaining bottom-half opponent.

For a manager who has won just nine of his last 40 games, it is a daunting task. For a manager who proudly stated “I don’t do relegation” in December, it would be a neat trick to take two sides down in the same season.

Matt Stead