Have Man United really improved since Van Gaal?

Matt Stead

There was an air of familiarity about the way Manchester United capitulated in the final ten minutes to draw with Everton on Sunday. After dominating a potentially awkward away fixture, Marouane Fellaini was brought on with five minutes remaining to ensure all three points for Jose Mourinho’s side. Rather than help see out the game, the Belgian gifted his former club a penalty with almost his first involvement. Everton equalised and stole a point. What a tactical move.

Fellaini’s presence at United has rankled with supporters ever since he followed David Moyes to Old Trafford in 2013 and that view only intensified as he chopped down Idrissa Gueye in the penalty area with United closing in on a much-needed victory. It’s not the first time the club’s problems post-Ferguson have been dumped on his doorstep and it probably won’t be the last time either. He will be used to the abuse by now, but Fellaini is actually just part of the problem rather than the definitive issue holding United back.

Moments before Leighton Baines equalised from the spot, Gary Neville told Sky Sports about the importance of United seeing out the game or risking being thrown further back in their development under Mourinho. Almost as soon as Neville had finished referee Michael Oliver had pointed to the penalty spot, dealing the mental blow to the players that had just been forewarned. Mourinho’s side have now dropped more points from goals conceded in the last ten minutes of matches than any other Premier League side this season (seven).

David de Gea, whose mixed performances this season have slipped under the radar, cost United in their 1-1 draw with Stoke, while Marcus Rashford’s decision not to track Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain allowed Arsenal to score a late equaliser in the 1-1 draw last month. Fellaini’s error means United have now drawn four of their last five Premier League matches to leave them 13 points behind leaders Chelsea and nine behind Manchester City in fourth.

United’s continued struggles have drawn obvious parallels to Mourinho’s predecessors, but there cannot be any comparisons to the football played on the pitch, which has been far more encouraging this season under the 53-year-old.

“I’m happy. This was a performance and a result,” Mourinho explained after their 4-0 win over Feyenoord in the Europa League at the end of November. “I was saying before the match, performance without result is not good but gives you future. A bad performance with a good result is a happy moment but it’s just a happy moment, not a happy future.”

United might have their lowest points total after 14 league matches in the post-Ferguson era (20), but there is truth to what Mourinho is saying. United are excelling in almost every department in the attacking third in comparison to the reigns of Moyes and Louis van Gaal. They are averaging more shots (16.4), mustering more efforts on target (5.5) and creating more chances per game (12.1) than in any of the last three Premier League campaigns at this stage of the season.

However, despite obvious improvements in the style of football in comparison to what has been seen at United in recent years, Mourinho’s side are already looking at the prospect of life without Champions League football for the third time in four years. While the numbers United are recording for the aforementioned stats would be good enough to challenge for the top four, they find themselves a long way off City and with fewer goals scored than Tony Pulis’ West Brom (20).

It’s not that United are playing badly, but their quality of finishing has completely deserted them when it matters. The fact that the opposition goalkeeper finished as the WhoScored.com man of the match in draws against Burnley and Stoke, while Darren Randolph was also the second highest-rated player in their stalemate with West Ham, also highlights why United have failed to take maximum points in games they have completely dominated.

Given the principle job of a goalkeeper is to stop the opposition from scoring, Mourinho cannot keep beating the drum that United are the unluckiest team in the Premier League. He must look at the astonishing amount of chances his players are wasting that has left them so far away from their rivals.

In fact, no team has missed more clear-cut chances in the Premier League this season than United (18), while only Southampton (5.5%), West Ham (7.5%) and Stoke (8.2%) have a worse conversion rate than Mourinho’s side (8.3%). At the opposite end of the table, Arsenal are converting a league high 15.5% of their chances, followed by Chelsea (14.8%) and Liverpool (13.4%).

It’s interesting that in two of the last three seasons United have posted extraordinarily poor numbers when it comes to shots taken and chances created, but the one factor that has enabled them to stay in the mix for the top four has been their ability to take the few chances they did muster. This isn’t surprising when you consider the calibre of players at the club, but it is a remarkable decline for United this season when they have improved their attacking options in the transfer market.

The fact that United haven’t been ruthless under Mourinho suggests the Portuguese manager is still carrying over a hangover from his disastrous campaign with Chelsea last season. Mourinho has only won ten of his last 33 league matches and the need for a sustained run is growing. That, however, is easier said than done and will only change if United start finishing the chances they are creating.

Josh Wright

All statistics courtesy of WhoScored.com, where you can find yet more stats, including live in-game data and unique player and team ratings. You can follow all the scores, statistics, live player and team ratings with the new free-to-download WhoScored iOS app.