F365 Opinion

Odds on championship: 2,000-1. Odds on relegation: 5-1

Manager: Steve Bruce (since November 2007). Odds on first out the job: 10-1

Last season: 14th, 40 points; FA Cup fourth round; Carling Cup second round

Ins: Olivier Kapo (Birmingham, £3.5m), Lee Cattermole (Middlesbrough, £3.5m), Daniel de Ridder (Birmingham free), Amr Zaki (Zamalek, loan).

Outs: Andreas Granqvist (Groningen, £600,000), Julius Aghahowa (Kayserispor, undisclosed), Salomon Olembe (Kayserispor, free), Josip Skoko (Hajduk Split, free), David Cotterill (Sheffield United, undisclosed).

A year ago I tipped Wigan for relegation, largely on the basis of the Chris Hutchings factor. He lost his job more or less on schedule - which proved to be in time to save the club from the drop. At least that's my excuse for another unfulfilled prediction.

But it is hard to know what the fate of Hutchings or Wigan would have been had Emile Heskey stayed fit. He played a key part in the unexpectedly bright opening, shone for England - then was crocked, prompting a prolonged slump. Would he have saved Hutchings and Wigan? Or kept Hutchings in a job long enough to doom Wigan?

Hutchings went, and in came Steve Bruce. He was the right man, made available by a bizarre set of circumstances at Birmingham, and Wigan remain a Premier League team.

It was the second season running that a relegation rival's discard played a crucial part in the Latics' survival, after David Unsworth. But Bruce's impact could be more lasting.

Despite managing to get relegated with his strongest Birmingham side, and despite his lingering reputation as a footballing nomad after his early managerial bedhopping, Bruce proved loyal enough and capable enough for the most part at St Andrew's. Maybe not to those close to the club who expected or dreamed of more, but aside from 2005-06, I did not expect more from City than they achieved.

He has plenty of experience, most of it good, with relegation jousts and - without suggesting he will become a world-beater - seems the kind of manager able to learn from his mistakes and his successes.

There are grounds for caution. This warning will be familiar, but it is worth recalling how narrow and unpredictable the margins can be at the bottom. It is clubs with small squads for whom a sudden improvement by one player can most make a difference, and who can least afford to lose someone to injury. Wigan, whose elevated position is made possible by an owner who is generous but cannot overcommit funds, will always be vulnerable to sudden crises.

Goals were a big problem and Marcus Bent was always unlikely to be the answer. Finding someone to put the ball in the net regularly enough and keeping them fit should be crucial to the club's chances of reaching 40 points.
But they got there last season and the same is true at Bolton, who did not make that total. I am choosing Wigan to survive at the expense of their neighbours based on an assessment of the merits of the two managers, Gary Megson and Steve Bruce.

The season opens at West Ham, with Chelsea the first visitors. The next two games - at Hull then at home to Sunderland - look more promising. Wigan look likely to labour all season long, but if they can take points in such matches then they will be able to take heart and, in Hull's case, help strangle hope at birth.

Philip Cornwall