F365 Opinion

What a difference a win makes - especially a 4-1 win like that. Fabio Capello's decision to exclude Michael Owen from his England squad for the games against Kazakhstan and Belarus becomes a subject for discussion rather than a stick with which anyone can consequentially beat the Italian. This is because the demolition of much-feared Croatia's home record transformed the coach's standing - and because Capello doesn't notice beatings anyway.

You had to look fairly hard (or read Football365) to find anyone predicting anything but gloom after the 2-0 win away to Andorra. As far back as Paris - the only game in which Owen has appeared for Capello - the press were mounting an assault on the new coach.

When Joe Cole scraped a draw with the Czechs in August, Harry Redknapp became an instant hit as a pundit when he laid into the home team and their Italian master. Capello carried on, unbruised and uninterested in criticism when things were going badly. He will be even less bothered, if that's possible, by criticism when things are going well.

As long as a coach is winning, he has the capital with which to take decisions and the rest of us can whistle. Capello wants more from his forwards from just goals and he sees Owen as too much of a penalty area player.

There's a certain historical irony in the diminutive Owen missing out while two players whose careers blossomed by virtue of being foils for him are included, but Peter Crouch and Emile Heskey undoubtedly offer challenges to defenders and midfields that the Newcastle striker cannot. To me, it is Crouch's clubmate who is the misfit: Jermain Defoe remains the poor man's Michael Owen, offering no more outside the penalty area and, at international level, far, far less inside it.

Defoe is the younger man, but has reached the age of 26 (on Tuesday) with his best England goal still his first, in Poland in 2004.

Owen's hopes of restoration rest on four things: his form and fitness; whether Defoe proves me wrong if called upon; whether the other strikers stay available; and whether Capello has an open mind on the subject.

The first rests on Owen himself: if he keeps playing and scoring, especially in a struggling side, while showing the intelligence to set up team-mates and link play, then he'll be doing all he can. Two and three rest on other players. Defoe may be able to coast along in the squad without even setting foot on the pitch, if the team win well without him. But if I was a gambling man, I wouldn't bet on Wayne Rooney negotiating a season, never mind a qualification campaign, without being injured or suspended. As to the last, Capello reversed himself on the subject of David Beckham at Real Madrid and is a confident enough man not to worry what people think of him; no one would mistake a recall for Owen as a sign of weakness.

Not till December is the striker 29. There is still time for patience to be rewarded.

England squad to play Kazakhstan (Wembley, Saturday) and Belarus (Minsk, 15 October): James (Portsmouth), Green (West Ham), Carson (West Brom); Brown (Manchester United), Johnson (Portsmouth), Terry (Chelsea), Ferdinand (Manchester United), Lescott (Everton), Upson (West Ham), A Cole (Chelsea), Bridge (Chelsea); Beckham (Los Angeles Galaxy), Walcott (Arsenal), Barry (Aston Villa), Jenas (Tottenham), Lampard (Chelsea), Gerrard (Liverpool), Downing (Middlesbrough), Wright-Phillips (Manchester City); Heskey (Wigan), Crouch (Portsmouth), Rooney (Manchester United), Defoe (Portsmouth).