Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
Crystal Palace and Aston Villa will clash in the FA Cup semi-finals at Wembley on Saturday evening, with the prize of a grand day out in the final to face either Man City or Nottingham Forest on the line.
Palace have had the better of this fixture lately, which might explain why Unai Emery twitches when someone mentions Selhurst Park.
The ‘home side’ is unbeaten in four against Villa, including a 4-1 demolition earlier this season that looked more like a team-building exercise for Oliver Glasner’s high-flying Eagles.
Here’s the Premier League table since Glasner took over Palace; it makes fine reading for Eagles fans.
They even rounded off last season with a 5-0 cruise past Villa, so it’s safe to say Palace have the psychological edge and perhaps a few keys to the Villa backline.
The Villans will be out in their droves to cheer their team on to revenge, yet with Wembley form that reads more like a cautionary tale, the stage could be set for another performance full of flair from the Premier League’s vibesmen.
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa prediction:
It’s too easy to back Villa to win this match on the back of their recent form. Palace are priced as hefty 11/5 underdogs, which isn’t a fair reflection of these teams.
On paper, the Villans have the deeper and more talented squad, but that hasn’t manifested itself in one-off meetings.
The fact that they’re winless in four meetings, and were battered in two of them, is no coincidence. Glasner’s set-up is capable of frustrating Emery’s and catching them on the break.
The Eagles needed just 32% possession to hold Arsenal to a 2-2 draw on Wednesday night, which should prove the perfect warm-up for this semi-final.
These games have a habit of being decided by small margins, so considering the rate at which these games have gone to extra time recently is out of sync with the averages, we’ll back the Eagles to frustrate again and claim a draw.
Trends don’t always make sense, but they can persist in football. Villa’s record here is rubbish, Palace are due a success, and they know how to get the better of their opponents. We’ll back them to qualify.
Crystal Palace team news
Crystal Palace will be without long-term absentees Chadi Riad and Cheick Doucoure, but they will welcome back Chris Richards from a one-game suspension.
That’ll allow the American to slot into a back three alongside Maxence Lacroix and Marc Geuhi, who Daniel Munoz and Tyrick Mitchell will flank.
Adam Wharton and Will Hughes will resume their partnership in midfield.
Ismaila Sarr will return to the starting line-up after being rested for the trip to the Emirates, where Eberechi Eze scored a spectacular volley from the edge of the box.
Jean-Philippe Mateta also came off the bench to score on Wednesday and should replace Eddie Nketiah as the lone striker at Wembley.
Crystal Palace expected line-up
Henderson – Richards, Lacroix, Guehi – Munoz, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell – Sarr, Eze – Mateta
Aston Villa team news
Unai Emery can select his best team with no new injury concerns. He rotated for the visit of Newcastle at the weekend, but Villa were back to full strength on Wednesday.
Emi Martinez, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Pau Torres and Lucas Digne are expected to start.
There’s been plenty of rotation in midfield lately, but Boubacar Kamara and Amadou Onana provide the most solid pair for Villa to build from.
That means Youri Tielemans moves further forward to join Jacob Ramsey and Morgan Rogers in attacking midfield roles.
Marcus Rashford was preferred to Ollie Watkins midweek and scored against Man City, so he could retain his place.
Aston Villa expected line-up
Martinez – Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne – Kamara, Onana – Rogers, Tielemans, Ramsey – Rashford
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa: How to watch and listen
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa will be shown live on BBC One and BBC iPlayer at 17:30 on Saturday, April 26. There will be full match commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live Sport.
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa stats:
– Eight of 34 FA Cup semi-finals at Wembley have gone to extra time.
– Palace are unbeaten in four meetings, including a 4-1 win at Selhurst Park and a 2-1 Carabao Cup win at Villa Park this season.
– Palace have alternated between losing and winning in their previous FA Cup semi-finals, last featuring when they were eliminated in 2022.
– Palace are unbeaten in 17 of 23 matches away from Selhurst Park.
– Villa have lost six of their last eight trips to Wembley, winning just once against Premier League opposition during that run.
– There have been over 2.5 goals in each of Villa’s last nine matches.
– Aston Villa have won five of their previous six matches against Premier League opposition.