Nottingham Forest vs Man City prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
Manchester City and Nottingham Forest go head-to-head at Wembley on Sunday for a place in the FA Cup final, with both clubs juggling top-four pushes and an opportunity for silverware.
City may be the defending champions, but they’ve spent most of the season looking like a shadow of their usual selves. Pep Guardiola’s side have stumbled through injuries, a crisis of creativity, and a goal-shy campaign by their standards — and now they’ve got half a squad missing.
City’s growing injury list is a problem. You don’t need a coaching badge to know it’s a serious blow to their chances of dominating midfield or stretching Forest’s defence.
Forest, meanwhile, are having the season of their lives. They were supposed to be fighting relegation. Instead, they’re dreaming of Europe. It’s giving Leicester City.
Nuno Espirito Santo has got them playing fast, fluid football on the break — and it’s working. They’ve already beaten City once this season and are currently ahead of Newcastle and Chelsea in the league table. Let that sink in.
Some people will tell you that possession is two-thirds of the law. Sean Dyche will tell you it’s utter woke nonsense. The ball might as well have been a square last Monday, as Forest enjoyed 30% possession and beat Spurs 2-1 despite being outshot 22-3.
Nottingham Forest vs Man City prediction
You can’t back City at the odds. Not with that injury list. Not in a one-off semi-final. Not against a Forest side that’s already beaten them this season and is playing without fear.
We’re not tipping a giant-killing just yet — City still have enough talent to edge it — but Forest should absolutely make a game of it.
On paper, Guardiola’s side have found form and rhythm at the perfect stage of the season. We suspect they’re the more likely side to win in 90 minutes, but there isn’t much value in backing them.
Instead, we’ll be open to the possibility that Forest find a way. They’re still being written off despite a fantastic season, which means the odds on them winning or qualifying are pretty healthy.
They’ve struck on the break and frustrated City in consecutive seasons, so there’s no reason they can’t do it again if they keep calm on a big occasion.
We also think the cagey nature of a Wembley semi-final and Forest’s tactics will lead to a low-scoring affair. Five of six league meetings have produced two or fewer goals.
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Nottingham Forest team news
Neco Williams is suspended, and Ola Aina remains a doubt. That could force Nuno into a tactical tweak, with Alex Moreno or Harry Toffolo potentially used at right-back.
Alternatively, we could see a switch to a back three, with Nicolas Dominguez used as a wing-back — an approach Nuno took against Aston Villa a few weeks ago.
Forest lined up in a 4-2-2-2 against Tottenham, playing Danilo alongside Dominguez, Elliot Anderson alongside Morgan Gibbs-White, and Anthony Elanga alongside Chris Wood.
Despite issues at right-back, we should see them revert to a 4-2-3-1, with Anderson partnering Dominguez in midfield.
That would allow both Callum Hudson-Odoi and Elanga to start in support of Wood.
Nottingham Forest expected line-up
Sels – Toffolo, Milenkovic, Murillo, Moreno – Dominguez, Anderson – Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi – Wood
Man City team news
Erling Haaland, Rodri, John Stones, Nathan Ake, Ederson and Oscar Bobb are all ruled out due to injury.
That means more minutes for Stefan Ortega in goal and an increased creative burden on Kevin De Bruyne, who should start just behind Omar Marmoush.
With a different formation every week and a revolving door policy in place when it comes to team selection, it’s hard to nail down what team Guardiola will pick.
However, it seems sensible to deploy two capable holding midfielders against Forest, so the energetic Nico Gonzalez could partner Ilkay Gündogan.
Matheus Nunes has become a threat from right-back, while Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol and Nico O’Reilly should retain their places.
Man City expected line-up
Ortega – Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, O’Reilly – Gonzalez, Gündogan – Silva, De Bruyne, Savio – Marmoush
Nottingham Forest vs Man City: How to watch and listen
Nottingham Forest vs Man City will be shown live on BBC One and BBC iPlayer at 16:30 on Sunday, April 27. Full match commentary will also be available on BBC Radio 5 Live Sport.
Nottingham Forest vs Man City stats
Forest won the most recent meeting between these sides 1-0 at the City Ground, though City won the reverse fixture 3-0 at the Etihad.
This is Forest’s first appearance in a major cup competition at the new Wembley Stadium.
Forest’s record against top-six teams this season reads two wins, three draws and five losses.
There have been just 11 goals scored in Forest’s last seven FA Cup ties inside 90 minutes.
This is Man City’s seventh consecutive FA Cup semi-final appearance. They’ve won three and drawn three of the previous six.
Man City are enjoying a seven-match unbeaten run, winning five times and scoring at least two goals in each of their wins.