PSG vs Arsenal prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
We’ve picked out our favourite betting tips as Arsenal travel to Paris for a high-stakes Champions League semi-final second leg.
The Gunners need to come from behind after a narrow 1-0 defeat at the Emirates last week, while PSG look to book their place in a first UCL final since 2020.
Luis Enrique’s side have one foot in the final, but a patchy recent record and fitness concerns could make for a tense night in the French capital.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are wobbling domestically but have shown in Europe that they can win anywhere by triumphing at the Bernabeu. It’s the last chance saloon for Mikel Arteta’s men, and that desperation might be their biggest weapon.
PSG looked fluent, fast and dominant for 20 minutes last week, but they failed to press home that advantage and might regret it. Arsenal grew into the match, created chances and had the better of the second half, and if they start fast in Paris, the tie is there to be turned.
This may be a side that’s lost just seven matches all season, but six of those came in this competition, with three of them coming against English opposition.
It’s not just a fight for a final spot; it’s the final test of whether Arsenal’s project can truly deliver silverware, or if they just become the next Tottenham by threatening something that never happens.
PSG vs Arsenal prediction
Arsenal need to win in 90 minutes to stand a chance of progressing, and there’s evidence they can. They’ve won four away games on the bounce in this season’s competition, including that dramatic 2-1 victory at Real Madrid.
With Thomas Partey back to anchor the midfield, Declan Rice can drive forward, and Martin Odegaard may find the space he was starved of in the first leg.
Add in the fact that PSG have lost two of their last three, including a 2-1 defeat to Strasbourg at the weekend, and there’s more than a hint of vulnerability.
Enrique’s side are strong at home but far from invincible. Aston Villa, Liverpool and Atletico Madrid have all left Paris with wins this season.
Arsenal previously secured a 2-0 victory against PSG in the group stage of this competition, so there’s no reason they can’t do it again.
It’ll be tight, likely nervy, and you’d always fancy PSG to get on the scoresheet. But Arsenal have the urgency, experience and plenty to prove.
We’ve seen plenty of stubborn rearguard actions under pressure since Arteta took over. If they take their chances this time, they might just do enough.
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PSG team news
Ousmane Dembele was a doubt after limping off in the first leg with a hamstring strain, but he’s since participated in training.
Luis Enrique is expected to restore his strongest XI after heavy rotation at the weekend.
Goncalo Ramos leads the line, with Kvaratskhelia returning on the left as Joao Neves, Fabian Ruiz, and Vitinha form a talented midfield trio.
Ramos hasn’t been a regular starter, but a goal and an assist in his last two starts, coupled with his physical presence up against Saliba, could prove useful.
The alternative is to use Dembele as the central striker and deploy Desire Doue on the right.
Marquinhos and Pacho will anchor the defence in front of Donnarumma, who was outstanding in the first leg.
PSG expected line-up
Donnarumma – Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes – Ruiz, Vitinha, Neves – Dembele, Ramos, Kvaratskhelia
Arsenal team news
Thomas Partey returns from suspension and should slot straight into midfield.
His inclusion frees up Declan Rice to support the attack and could be key to controlling the tempo in Paris.
Jurrien Timber faces a late fitness test after missing the Bournemouth loss, while the likes of Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, Gabriel and Takehiro Tomiyasu remain sidelined.
Expect an attacking starting XI from Arteta, with Lewis-Skelly potentially starting again at left-back and Mikel Merino joining Saka and Martinelli in the front three.
Jurrien Timber will also have a massive role to play as he faces down talented youngster Desire Doue.
Arsenal expected line-up
Raya – Timber, Saliba, Kiwior, Lewis-Skelly – Rice, Partey, Odegaard – Saka, Merino, Martinelli
PSG vs Arsenal: How to watch and listen
PSG vs Arsenal will be shown live on TNT Sports 1 and TNT Sports Ultimate and discovery+ at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday, May 7. Live commentary is also available on BBC Radio 5 Live and talkSPORT.
PSG vs Arsenal stats
– PSG are unbeaten in their last 10 home Champions League matches.
– PSG have only lost one of 19 two-legged ties in which they won the away leg, losing to Man Utd in the 2018/19 season.
– PSG have lost two of their last three in all competitions and each of their previous three Champions League semi-final games at home.
– PSG’s win at the Emirates was their first in five meetings with the Gunners. They’ve failed to win 10 of 17 against English sides.
– Arsenal have never overturned a first-leg home defeat in Europe (P5 L5).
– Arsenal have won four consecutive UCL away games.
– Arsenal had more xG, shots and shots on target in the first leg, as Donnarumma produced five saves.
