Enormous list of weird and first-time qualifying hopefuls shows massiveness of 2026 World Cup
The World Cup next year is going to be massive. Not in a marketing guff sense, but actually massive. Forty-eight teams. That’s loads.
Naturally, the expansion of the tournament has opened the door of qualification to more countries who wouldn’t normally fancy their chances of appearing on the biggest stage in international football.
Let’s take a look around the way the qualification groups have fallen in the various confederations across the world and see which of the former minnows might actually get to take to the field in Canada, Mexico and United States next year.
A quick explanatory note: the inter-confederation play-off is a little mini-tournament that will be held once all the rest of regular qualifying is complete. The best non-qualifying sides from each of the confederations except UEFA (with two from CONCACAF) will compete in it, with two extra qualification places up for grabs. It is likely to take place in November.
Also…we hope you will please accept all stats and references to the ‘World Cup’ as a convenient shorthand to refer only to men’s World Cups. We respect and acknowledge the Women’s World Cup, it’s just not what we’re talking about here.
New Caledonia (OFC)
It would take a cockeyed optimist to back the tiny French territory in the south Pacific to make it to the World Cup – but they are just two matches away.
Ranked 152nd in the world, New Caledonia lost out to New Zealand (absolute stalwarts by comparison, as they prepare for their third World Cup) for the automatic OFC place in North America next summer but will head to the inter-confederation play-offs for a second chance at making it to their first ever World Cup.
Northern Ireland, Republic of Ireland, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Georgia, North Macedonia, Turkey, Kosovo and Norway (UEFA)
All of them have enjoyed success in the Nations League by their own standards, and more importantly, all of them find themselves in groups that will have them hoping they have a real shot of claiming at least second place and a chance of qualifying via the play-offs (group winners go straight to the World Cup).
Slovakia and Georgia have particular cause for optimism after making it to the knockout stages of last year’s Euros. Slovakia have only been to one World Cup, in 2010; Georgia have never qualified but were fantastic fun out in Germany.
Ireland, Northern Ireland and Norway have been to three World Cups each, but none more recently than 2002; and surprisingly, Turkey have only been to two, in 1954 and 2002, which doesn’t sound right at all.
Sudan, Cape Verde and Gabon (CAF)
All would be first-timers at a World Cup, and all of them currently top their qualifying groups at the halfway stage of qualifying ahead of more familiar African nations.
If they can stay the course and finish top of their groups, that would be enough to get them straight to the 2026 World Cup. Even finishing second would earn them a second chance alongside current second-placed sides like…
Burkina Faso, DR Congo, Benin, Niger, Mozambique, Madagascar and/or Namibia (CAF)
The six countries only have one previous World Cup appearance between them: DR Congo appeared at the 1974 World Cup. All of them currently sit second in their groups, with Mozambique and Namibia both in particularly strong positions.
The bad news is that only the four best-ranked runners-up will go into the play-offs, with just a single place in the inter-confederation play-offs on the line. They’re currently keeping some more familiar nations like Senegal and Nigeria out of the running, mind.
Basically anybody from CONCACAF
The three host nations who would normally dominate the North American, Central American and Caribbean qualifying stages have all been granted automatic qualification to the World Cup, leaving the field pretty well wide open for a load of countries to make it to their first World Cups.
We’re still only in the early stages of the first of two group stages, and there’s a few familiar faces on track to make it to the next round: Honduras, Costa Rica, Trinidad & Tobago, and Panama have all featured at World Cups this century.
But there’s also Cuba (only appearance in 1938), Curacao (never qualified), Haiti (only appeared in 1974), Nicaragua (never qualified), Guatemala (never qualified), Jamaica (only appeared in 1998), Suriname (never qualified) and Puerto Rico (never qualified).
We’re particularly fond of Cuba being second in their group largely because the Cayman Islands side are mostly US-based and thus weren’t allowed to travel to Cuba, forcing them to forfeit the game and hand Cuba three valuable points.
There are three qualification places ultimately up for grabs, plus two inter-confederation play-off places, leaving plenty of room for a first-timer or little-seen nation to make it to the World Cup here.
Bolivia, Peru or Venezuela (CONMEBOL)
Thankfully, the South American confederation keeps things incredible simple. One big league table, everyone plays each other twice, top six go to the World Cup, seventh goes to the inter-confederation play-offs.
Defending champions Argentina have already qualified, and look set to be joined by the usual crowd: Ecuador, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia.
But that intriguing extra place in the worldwide play-offs is up for grabs. Venezuela are the only one of CONMEBOL’s ten nations never to have been to a World Cup, and are just one point away from 7th.
Bolivia are currently in the driver’s seat as they bid to make their first World Cup since 1994 (having previously appeared in 1930 and 1950). Or it could be Peru, going for their sixth World Cup, but only their second since 1982. Bottom-of-the-table Chile, who have been in and out since the World Cup began, retain an outside chance.
Uzbekistan and Jordan (AFC)
The AFC qualification system is currently in its third round, consisting of three groups of six teams. The top two sides in each group go straight to the World Cup (with more to follow later, which we’ll get onto in a moment).
With three games to play of this group stage, Uzbekistan sit second behind Iran in their group, six points clear of the UAE and Qatar – both of whom they will face head-to-head in June. They’ve never qualified for a World Cup other than as part of the Soviet Union, but even just drawing those vital head-to-heads would get them there next year.
Never-qualifiers Jordan are meanwhile also second in their group behind South Korea, who they will visit on Tuesday. Jordan are level on points with Iraq, who they will host in June.
Even if Uzbekistan and/or Jordan miss out at this stage, they’ll get another chance, alongside…
Oman, Kuwait, Indonesia, Iraq, Qatar and/or Bahrain (AFC)
Even those who finish outside the top two in the current Asian groups will get two more chances to qualify.
The 3rd and 4th-placed sides will go into yet another group stage, this time of two groups of three. The top side from each group from that will go to the World Cup, with the runners-up playing off for a place in the inter-confederation play-offs.
Only Kyrgyszstan, North Korea and Palestine are definitely out of the running, while only Japan are definitely qualified.
That puts Oman and Bahrain in with a shot of making it to their first-ever World Cup, while Indonesia (1938), Kuwait (1982), Iraq (1986) and Qatar (2022, as hosts) still have hopes of making it to a second. More frequent qualifiers the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Australia could have something to say about that should they require the extra qualifying round, however.
