Arsenal vs Fulham prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
Arsenal will welcome beaten FA Cup quarter-finalists Fulham to the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday night for a Premier League clash under the lights.
The Gunners hope to prevent their wafer-thin title hopes from crumbling at the hands of their fellow Londoners as they half-heartedly chase down Liverpool, who are 12 points clear in the Premier League title race.
Victory will see them close the gap to double digits ahead of the always-competitive Merseyside derby on Wednesday night, though even an Everton win barely leaves the door ajar.
A trophyless year means Mike Arteta’s job will no doubt be hanging in the balance, though one must question if that’s fair, given the club’s constant failings in the transfer market.
Fulham have their sights set on playing European football. They’re currently in a mini-league with Crystal Palace, Brentford, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, and Brighton, who are within reach of the current top six.
Marco Silva has done a fantastic job to finish 18+ points clear of the relegation zone in each season since promotion, steadily returning a club that featured in the 2010 Europa League final to its former glory.
Tuesday’s game is a good opportunity to go against the grain and hopefully exploit the massive price on the visitors.
Arsenal v Fulham prediction:
This is a good example of the big-six betting tax in action. Arsenal, a team whose season now depends on the Champions League, is priced as 19/40 favourites to win.
The reality of their performances at home, Fulham’s performances away, and the underlying metrics of both teams tell us that’s a mile away from the price they should be.
Yet on their day, the Gunners can turn it on and beat anyone, so bookmakers are fearful of offering a tempting price. Instead, they’ll push all the value toward the underdog.
Fulham are priced at 8/1 at some outlets, and they’re rightfully receiving backing because they should be priced no higher than 4/1.
Arsenal have failed to win five of 14 Premier League matches at home, and they’re under pressure to be perfect in the final few matches.
Fulham, on the other hand, can play with freedom. They’ve lost four of 17 away matches across all competitions, all by a one-goal margin and often in the dying seconds.
They’ve already taken points away from Anfield, Stamford Bridge and St James’ Park, among other grounds, so we expect them to do the same tonight.
Arsenal team news
The Gunners avoided adding any major casualties to their list of walking wounded during the international break.
The back five picks itself with David Raya in perfectly good form, while Jurrien Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel and Myles Lewis-Skelly start right to left.
There’s a lack of competition for places with Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ricardo Calafiori ruled out due to injury.
There’s better news further forward as Bukayo Saka’s return to the bench gives Arteta options, who also has a choice between Ethan Nwaneri and Gabriel Martinelli.
The midfield three of Martin Odegaard, Thomas Party and Declan Rice are as you were, with converted striker Mikel Merino continuing in that role in the absence of Gabriel Jesus.
Arsenal expected line-up
Raya – Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Lewis-Skelly – Odegaard, Partey, Rice – Nwaneri, Merino, Trossard
Fulham team news
If Marco Silva opts to freshen things up then Emile Smith Rowe, Adama Traore, Raul Jimenez, Ryan Sessegnon and Tom Cairney are among the options on his bench.
Saturday’s FA Cup exit was tough to take, but an extended rest over the international break should mean the same starting 11 are fit and raring to go if required.
Kenny Tete remains a long-term absentee so Silva will persist with a back four of Timothy Castagne, Joachim Andersen, Calvin Bassey and Antonee Robinson.
Sander Berge and Sasa Lukic look like the most combative midfield pairing, which should be necessary to squash Arsenal’s threat and manage Odegaard.
We think Raul Jimenez will get the nod to replace Rodrigo Muniz, who was largely a passenger in the weekend defeat to Palace.
Fulham expected line-up
Leno – Castagne, Andersen, Bassey, Robinson – Berge, Lukic – Iwobi, Pereira, Willian – Jimenez
Arsenal v Fulham: How to watch and listen
Tuesday’s match between Arsenal and Fulham is not available to watch live in the UK, though the game is live around Europe, including Sky Sports in Germany and on Optus Sport in Australia. There will be full match commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live Sport.
Arsenal v Fulham stats:
The latest meeting between the sides was a 1-1 draw at Craven Cottage in December.
Arsenal have picked up 20 points from nine London derbies this season, while Fulham have claimed 15 from nine.
Arsenal have a super record at home against Fulham, winning 24 times and avoiding defeat in all 31 meetings.
Fulham are one of the most consistent away teams in English football this season, avoiding defeat in 13 of 17 matches across all competitions.
Mikel Arteta (Arsenal) quotes
On Bukayo Saka’s return:
“Bukayo is ready to go.
“All the careful things he’s already done. So now it’s about putting him in the grass in the right moments. But he’s pushing because he really wants it.
“We have respected the timeframe, we have done everything and we have had to hold him back even. So he’s ready to go.”
On his potential impact:
“It’s another massive weapon that we have with him. We know the impact that he’s had on the team and how important his role and his contribution are to our success. So it’s great to have him back.”
On his hopes for the season:
“It’s possible to win tomorrow, and the preparation is to be better than Fulham and beat them tomorrow. If we do that, we’re going to start to generate a good momentum that’s going to help for both competitions.”
On Fulham and how their FA Cup defeat affects the game:
“I don’t know. It’s always a really tough opposition, a team that is very well coached.
They’ve been together for many years, they have great organisation, a lot of individual quality and a very clear identity of how they play, how they want to approach the games, especially against us. So we’re going to have to be really good tomorrow to beat them.”
On drawing 1-1 with Fulham in December:
“We have a lot of dominance and quite a lot of chances, both in open play and set-pieces-wise. But they were very clinical in what they do, and the first chance, especially when we were very on top of the game, they managed to score the goal.
“Then they sit back and reduce the spaces, and it’s a team that is well-organised.”
Marco Silva (Fulham) quotes
On getting a result at the Emirates Stadium:
“As we expected, they are there [fighting for the title]. Of course, they are not in the top of the table, because Liverpool is doing so well, but they have been there and trying to be as close as they can from the first position on the table.
“A top side, not just in terms of individual quality – they have a collective quality.
“And when we were playing less than 48 hours ago, they were not playing, they were preparing the game. They had all the time to prepare the game from the last international break, [and] that is going to be against us.
“They have this small advantage, plus the home game is always different than you play away from home, but we know their quality, we know their intensity, their physicality as well. Probably one of the more physical teams in the league.
“They like to press really high, they are going to create some problems for us, but we have to be brave enough to play our game, to be brave enough to face them and to match them, because there are three points there to fight for, and they are going to demand many, many things from ourselves.
“But I really believe that if we are at our best level, we have shown already that we are able to respond really well.”
On what he needs to see from his team:
“Many things have to be there. First, we have to be Fulham Football Club; that is the main thing.
“As you mentioned, our recent record against them has been very good, shows that we have been doing very, very good things against them.
“It’s not easy when you are already three games without losing against a team like Arsenal, just shows again what we have been doing so far the last few seasons, and how we have been consistent against a side that have been fighting always to be champions in this competition, and we have been able to get good results against them.
“And again, as I mentioned before, we have to be Fulham Football Club, and that means a lot of things.
“That means that we are brave, our courage is going to be there, our quality as well, our organisation, and of course we have to be able to match their physicality that is going to be in the game, for sure.”
Arsenal v Fulham referee stats:
Referee John Brooks will take charge of Arsenal’s match against Fulham on Tuesday, April 1.
Brooks, who averages 5.46 yellow cards per game in the Premier League, produces 0.35 more cards than the next biggest flasher (of cards, to be clear), Chris Kavanagh.
Labelled ‘Mr. Yellow Card’ by one Arsenal fan site, Brooks has overseen two Gunners games this season, both of which ended in defeat against Newcastle United.
It also seems he’s got a fondness for Fulham, as they’re the only team he’s officiated this season not to receive a card of any colour.
They drew 1-1 away to Everton in a well-mannered contest back in October.