Arsenal and Liverpool among flawed title contenders in a throwback Premier League season
With the Premier League set for its final fixtures before Christmas Day, it appears we might be set for a gift not received in years: a multi-team title race. It is something we should all be hopeful and grateful for given the repetitive and monotonous nature of recent seasons.
After 17 games, there are just 13 points between the top nine and, more importantly, only six points between the top five sides, with a quartet of sides already topping the Premier League this season.
It does point to a very top-heavy league, which has only been amplified by the perhaps all-time low quality of the three promoted sides.
While this could be seen as a bad thing and a sign of the gap between the Premier League and the Championship, it has led to the most unpredictable season in a long time, with everyone bar the real dregs capable of taking points from each other.
Another reason is the simple fact that the supposed ‘big teams’ are just not that good this season. Not yet, at least.
The less said about Manchester United and Chelsea the better, with both competing for the ‘how to waste a billion pounds’ title, albeit the Blues’ splurge has taken place in just over a year as opposed to the Glazer-led decay over a decade.
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Newcastle have not yet built on their surprise Saudi-infused third-placed finish last season, with their lack of high-quality depth and injuries catching up with them across multiple competitions.
The best all three of these sides can truly hope for this season is a top-four finish, which could be top five if England secure a top two coefficients finish – which this writer could not care less for.
Tottenham and Ange Postecoglou have been the media darlings for much of the season but, like the Magpies, injuries, as well as multiple suspensions, have slowed them down and knocked them off their early-November perch, even if only the most optimistic/deluded fan expected it to last all season long.
Their spot as the great outsider/pretender has been taken by Aston Villa, who can go top on Friday evening when they host Sheffield United and stay there for Christmas Day if Liverpool and Arsenal draw on Saturday at Anfield.
The first part seems a non-discussion such is the job Unai Emery has done at Villa Park, and their record at their home ground; they will be aiming for a 16th consecutive league home win, the most in club history unsurprisingly.
Last top at Christmas in the 1998/99 season, fans will be hoping for a slightly better second half of the season, given John Gregory’s side fell and fell hard, eventually finishing sixth and missing out on European football entirely. That feels unlikely this time around.
Neither Arsenal or Liverpool have given off the vibe of champions-in-waiting, with both stumbling at different points and relying on several last-minute goals for results, which is just not sustainable in the long run.
Liverpool’s draw with an injury-riddled, out of form and crisis-hit United at home last Sunday dampened their hopes after early overachievement following a summer of serious midfield change.
Arsenal are not as thrilling or in as good form as last season when they sat top at Christmas, but the addition of Declan Rice and some added defensive stability does give them a decent chance of staying the distance this season.
The biggest driver and reason all of these sides are in this position, though, is Manchester City’s iffy form over the first half of the season.
Another procession seemed on the horizon following Pep Guardiola’s side starting off with six wins in a row, but the wheels have fallen off like not seen before in the Catalonian’s time in Manchester or in top-level management.
There have been just four wins in 11 since: first back-to-back league defeats for the first time in nearly five years and one win from their last six. Eleven goals have been conceded in that last half-dozen.
All of it is so uncharacteristic. Is it post-treble complacency? Is it the weight/guilt of the 115 alleged charges? Is it tiredness? Is it the absence of the now-returning Kevin De Bruyne? Or the so-far substandard summer recruits? Guardiola certainly batted away the first suggestion, but it has made things all the more exciting.
The only thing that has stopped City processions since Guardiola’s second season has been Jurgen Klopp in the 2018/19 and 2021/22 seasons and Mikel Arteta last time around, although Arsenal collapsed when push came to shove.
Klopp, of course, one-upped Pep in the 2019/20 season, which is the last time City had any type of fallow period. It required a level of perfection from the German rarely seen in modern footballing history to put enough distance between the two sides to feel fully safe.
But in all of these seasons, there was just one team competing with City and only two sides truly gunning for the title. Sure, there was only four points between the top seven at Christmas in the 2020/21 Covid season, but that was a strange campaign and eventually City strolled home.
Multi-side title races were previously more common although, like Guardiola, Sir Alex Ferguson had a near-stranglehold on the title.
As mentioned, Villa were top on Christmas Day 1998, but it was United who pipped Arsenal to the title by a point, with Chelsea a further three back.
The title did not go back to Old Trafford in 2001/02 but that season did see just six points between the top five during the festive period and multiple lead changes before Arsene Wenger’s Gunners romped home.
In 2007/08 – perhaps the best all-round quality campaign ever – United won the league, finishing two points clear of Chelsea and four clear of Arsenal. Liverpool were just 11 back, a world away from the vast gaps that been seen in the top four in recent years.
All four also made the Champions League quarter-finals in a clear sign of Premier League prowess.
2010/11 threatened to be a similar story until Arsenal flattered to deceive once again, which marked the last time there was real hope of a multi-team title race before Sir Alex’s retirement.
The vacuum that was left after his departure in 2013 and before Guardiola’s arrival in 2016 saw a real battle and then the most miraculous title winner in history.
There were only seven points between the top four in 2013/14 while Arsenal and Spurs took turns at trying to take down the Leicester City train before falling away – the Foxes’ success was aided by the lack of Pep and Fergie, Klopp only arriving in October, Louis van Gaal fading away at United and Jose Mourinho melting down at Chelsea.
Since then, there has been nothing close to that, but maybe some of the events of this season and the memory of Leicester can give Villa hope for another unlikely title success.
Even if that does not transpire, it is a lot more fun than the name of the title winner being semi-engraved by the time dry January begins. For everyone not named Manchester City, anyway. Although one would be a fool to think the Abu Dhabi empire will not strike back in the new year.