Arsenal v Manchester City: One big game, five big questions
Four games into Freddie Ljungberg’s interim Arsenal reign, and little appears to have changed. Norwich and Standard Liege have both hosted 2-2 draws against the Gunners, with Brighton beating them 2-1. Were it not for West Ham’s own incompetence, Arsenal would be without a win in 11 games.
But Manchester City are not in the most certain form themselves. A pair of 4-1 wins away at Burnley and Dinamo Zagreb represent their only victories by more than a single goal since November began. Liverpool and Manchester United have beaten them, Newcastle, Atalanta and Shakhtar have held them, and Chelsea most certainly scared them.
Yet it is difficult to envisage the hosts showing the same resolve, determination and organisation that Manchester United used to beat the champions last weekend. Do Arsenal have a chance against Manchester City?
1) Could Man City’s possession focus Arsenal minds?
If there was any doubt about the best way to beat Manchester City then their cross-town rivals have provided the Premier League with a blueprint; Arsenal must surely follow it, sitting back and looking to counter-attack through a speedy front three.
In his brief spell as interim manager Freddie Ljungberg has experimented with players, formations and tactics just as often as his predecessor – and with similar results. Arsenal still look confused, caught somewhere between a high press and a low block, sometimes counter-attacking and sometimes building out from the back, but always pretty passive. A kinder analysis of Ljungberg might be to say he has shown flexibility. He will, then, be open to adopting Solskjaer’s method at the Emirates.
It could give Arsenal the focus they need. Too often the players lack clearly defined roles, floating around the pitch and letting the game pass them by. Simple defensive instructions, and the simple compression of space from a deep defensive block, could be just what they need to produce their first convincing post-Emery performance.
2) Or will Arsenal’s poor transitions create a free-flowing game?
More likely, however, is another jittery performance with spurts of energy and long ebbs of chaotic defending. Arsenal will certainly look to get forward in numbers on the break, but their inability to deal with transitions from attack to defence these last couple of years probably means we won’t often see the Gunners sit deep, absorbing pressure.
The initial pattern might look like that, yet once Arsenal start to pour forward they won’t be able to recompress quickly enough to keep City out. Guardiola’s side have their own problems in this area, of course, and what that should mean is a highly entertaining game for the neutral.
One of the most identifiable Arsenal traits of recent times is their emotional volatility. They are too easily drawn in by the chaos, getting caught up in irresistible end-to-end matches or folding in on themselves when under territorial pressure in front of a hostile crowd.
With forwards who don’t really track back, a central midfield given too much ground to cover and a defence that just isn’t up to it, Arsenal will be badly hurt by Man City counter-attacks as soon as the hosts open up.
3) Will Arsenal’s defensive passivity see De Bruyne run the game?
That midfield issue is of particular concern. The forwards half-heartedly press and the defence backpedals, leaving huge open spaces for the likes of Matteo Guendouzi and Lucas Torreira to attempt to marshal. This helps explain why the Gunners rank bottom of the league for interceptions made, with 8.4 per match. You can’t cut out passes without close support.
Too often Arsenal let the game pass them by, standing off and shimmying across without actually doing anything. West Ham, Brighton, Norwich and Standard Liege have peacefully eased their way into the Arsenal penalty area. Just imagine what Kevin de Bruyne, David Silva, Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva will do.
De Bruyne’s close contact with Bernardo on the right is a big problem for Arsenal, who repeatedly struggle to get midfield bodies out to support the left-back. Sead Kolasinac will seriously need the help. But De Bruyne’s influence should also be across midfield and in the number ten space on Sunday with the Belgian given plenty of time to pick his passes.
4) Can Torreira and Ozil cut through Man City’s soft centre?
Arsenal’s biggest hope is to take advantage of Fernandinho’s absence from the Man City midfield, as so many clubs have done this season. Rodri is not a like-for-like replacement and it shows, with City struggling to screen effectively – leaving them open to counter-attacks as opponents break forward without being met by the usual suffocating high press.
Torreira has shown, in brief glimpses, an ability to play quick forward passes under pressure to initiate these counters. He led the charge in the second half at the London Stadium on Monday, upping the tempo with incisive vertical passes that caught West Ham before they could reset their defensive shape.
If he is at the top of his game, and supported by Mesut Ozil, then Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Nicolas Pepe may get the opportunity to run directly at the City defence.
5) Does Pepe versus Angelino give Arsenal a slim chance?
Man City’s centre-back partnership for this match will be Nicolas Otamendi and Fernandinho, arguably not even in the top ten defensive combinations in the Premier League this weekend. Aubameyang and Pepe, cutting inside onto his left foot, will anticipate finding room to get shots away should Arsenal arrive in the final third.
But to get that far, they’ll need Pepe to pick up where he left off at West Ham and win his battle with Angelino during the transitions. Playing Benjamin Mendy in midweek suggests Guardiola will go with Angelino for Sunday despite another difficult performance against Man Utd last time out; the 22-year-old just doesn’t have the positional awareness to limit an opposition winger.
What’s more, Angelino will be expected to get forward from the left to provide City with width, meaning Pepe may get time on the ball ahead of his man. Pepe is yet to light up the Premier League, and certainly hasn’t shown his quality in the middle of the park. He will need to show strength and intelligence to carry the ball forward at the Emirates. Without a standout winger, Arsenal will be slowly ground into submission.
Alex Keble is on Twitter