Who will win the 2024 Ballon d’Or? Vini Jr is odds-on favourite

The Champions League outcome left Vinicius Jnr and Jude Bellingham as clear Ballon d’Or favourites, but Rodri might want a word…
10) Nico Williams
The first player from Athletic Club to be nominated; you have to be chuffed for him.
9) Toni Kroos
His retirement news rocketed him up the odds. But Germany probably needed to win Euro 2024 to make this a reality.
8) Erling Haaland
Scored a lot of goals (again) but playing for Norway is screwing him.
7) Lautaro Martinez
“Considering the season I had, I deserve to be where I am,” Martinez said. “I worked hard and suffered so much in the previous years. This is the second year in a row that I will participate in this ceremony. I think that I am ready to compete for this recognition.”
Serie A top scorer, Serie A winner, Copa America winner. He deserves his place.
4=) Kylian Mbappe
Six times he has been in the top 10 but 2023 marked his first time on the podium behind Messi and Haaland. Realistically he needed to win the Euros with France after ultimately failing in the Champions League with PSG. He will definitely have more chance with Real Madrid.
4=) Lamine Yamal
The Euro 2024 young player of the tournament and a truly phenomenal teenage talent. He will win Ballon d’Ors, but surely not this year.
4=) Dani Carvajal
“I’m not even thinking about the Ballon d’Or, but it’s clear that I had a good year, including on the offensive level,” said the right-back after scoring a goal in the Champions League final. He’s now added Euro 2024 to La Liga and Champions League so he should certainly be in the conversation. But a full-back? Winning the Ballon d’Or?
3) Jude Bellingham
A wonderful first season with Real Madrid reaped a Champions League/La Liga double but he failed at the final hurdle with England. We’re already in 20/1 territory here.
2) Rodri
The heart of the Euro 2024 champions Spain (and player of the tournament), but will the Premier League and European Championship double be enough? Probably not for a defensive-minded player. The Treble wasn’t enough in 2023, when Rodri was probably the best player in the world.
1) Vinicius Junior
Would a Champions League/La Liga double be enough for a player outside the Euros? After his performance against Dortmund then maybe. But winning the Copa America would have made a more compelling case and Brazil failed there. And yet he somehow remains heavy, heavy odds-on favourite.