Big Midweek: Man City, Lacazette, Ronaldo, Warnock
Game to watch – Manchester City vs Liverpool
“To go through you have to make almost the perfect game – make chances and not concede,” said Pep Guardiola. “It’s 3-0, but we have 90 minutes, and in all sports anything can happen. We’re going to try.”
If the initial attempt to downplay Manchester City’s hopes of second-leg comeback was understandable given the size of the task and the disappointment suffered over three-quarters of their last two games, Guardiola was not downbeat for long. He spoke about City’s ability to create a succession of chances in a short period of time, and only needs to look to the league fixture between these two at the Etihad for details.
Yet there is a widespread acceptance that Liverpool have improved since then, and will not roll over on Tuesday. The most impressive aspect of the victory at Anfield was Liverpool’s solidity when they reverted to a defensive strategy. Until then, the key to Liverpool’s success was constant attacking, never letting their opponents settle. Now they have a better balance between the two.
Still, we know how quickly these situations can change. Manchester City at least have the advantage of knowing exactly how they must play, furiously attacking Liverpool in the hope of blowing them away. For Jurgen Klopp, things are little more uncertain. Do they push for the goal that would surely render the tie over, or merely look to stop City scoring three times?
They key, it goes without saying, lies in the early goal. In the Premier League, City have scored more times in the opening 15 minutes of matches than any other team. More surprising is that only six teams have conceded more in that same time period than Liverpool. Klopp’s team have allowed more goals in the first 15 minutes of matches than West Brom, Swansea, Newcastle and Huddersfield.
Get up a head of steam, and we know how this Manchester City team can click. The key for Klopp and Liverpool lies in them having the courage to attack City’s own defensive flaws. Do that, and they will surely have enough to progress. It would make them only the third English club to reach the Champions league semi-finals in seven years.
Player to watch – Alexandre Lacazette
These are important weeks for Alexandre Lacazette. Having been stymied by both Alexis Sanchez’s domination in Arsenal’s attack and his own tendency to miss presentable chances, this season has been a qualified success at best. The striker bought to relieve Arsenal’s centre forward issues has already been eclipsed by a January arrival. Number of non-penalty Lacazette goals in 1,869 Premier League minutes? Eight. Number of non-penalty Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang goal in 611 Premier League minutes? Five.
The Europa League allows Lacazette a free shot to show his worth to Arsenal. With Aubameyang cup-tied, the goalscoring responsibility falls upon him. Guide Arsenal back into the Champions League by the back door, and he will form a key part of their attack next season. Fail to shine in elimination, and the pecking order looks established. Lacazette may then be farmed out wide or left on the bench.
Yet there is no reason to be anything other than positive. Lacazette is now hopefully over his injury problems, and has the tools to thrive in this competition. CSKA Moscow possess some of the slowest central defenders in Europe, and only Atletico Madrid should truly give Arsenal significant headaches. Avoid them before the final, and Lacazette can play a part in this season-saving exercise.
Manager to watch – Phil Neville
The honeymoon is over, and a fine start to his time in charge is already threatening to sour slightly for Neville. A majestic 4-1 victory over France in the She Believes Cup was followed by draw against Germany (never a bad result) and defeat to the USA.
Neville’s first World Cup qualifier under their new coach was far less successful. Wales are seeded third in England’s group and, although they were put under significant pressure, a 0-0 draw was a poor result against a side ranked 34th in FIFA’s world rankings. It also ended a run of 17 straight victories in World Cup qualifiers, stretching back to 2010, and was the first time England have failed to score in any qualifying match since October 2011.
Such is the gap in quality between the elite of women’s international football (of which England are part) and the rest, the margins for success are inevitably narrowed. Neville knows that nothing less than comprehensive victory in Bosnia will do, and the expectation should be that England score at least three or four times. The game takes place on Tuesday afternoon, and live coverage is on the BBC red button.
Team to watch – Barcelona
There is a danger of taking this Barcelona team for granted. Actually, let me rephrase that. There is a danger of taking the results of this Barcelona team for granted. They may not have the totaalvoetbal style of Pep Guardiola’s 2011 team, and there may be players within the first-team setup that you cannot quite believe are so heavily involved, but the proof of the pudding is in the glut of victories in every competition.
Under a new manager, Barcelona have been virtually unbeatable. Since the Super Cup humbling at the hands of Real Madrid, Barca have played 49 matches, winning 36 of those and drawing a further 12. The only loss came in the Copa del Rey to Espanyol, when they won the second leg to qualify anyway.
And look too at the margins of victory. Over that 49-match run, Barcelona have scored three goals ten times, four goals three times, four times scored five and twice scored six. As a pre-prepared retort to those who will question the competitiveness of La Liga, Barcelona have beaten each of Chelsea, Juventus and Roma by a margin of three clear goals.
Now, Barcelona are closing in one of the great seasons, at a time when everyone expected Real Madrid to continue their domination. Avoid catastrophe in Rome and Ernesto Valverde’s team will be in the Champions League semi-finals, but with an 11-point lead in La Liga that allows them to rest players having been top of the table since September 9. On April 21, they face Sevilla in the Copa del Rey final.
Valverde really could win the league, cup and European cup treble for only the third time in Barcelona’s history and ninth time in the history of the competition. That would be an extraordinary achievement, given his starting position. Maybe it’s time to take notice.
One-on-one battle to watch – Cristiano Ronaldo vs anyone
Substituted early in the Madrid derby in order to be fresh for the Juventus game on Wednesday. If there was ever any doubt that Zinedine Zidane has his eggs piled high in the Champions League basket, there can be no more.
Ronaldo has scored more goals in the Champions League quarter-finals (22 goals in 19 matches) than Juventus have in their entire history. Watch him, absorb him, respect him while you can. Even those who dislike the personality should appreciate that we are lucky to be living in the age of such an astonishing player.
Football League game to watch – Aston Villa v Cardiff City
There is trouble brewing at Aston Villa. Steve Bruce initially addressed a difficult start to life at Villa Park, but was given significant funds last summer to increase the wage bill and instructed to launch a serious promotion bid. John Terry, Glenn Whelan and Ahmed Elmohamady arrived, not to mention the wages spent on loan deals for Robert Snodgrass, Sam Johnstone, Josh Onomah and Lewis Grabban. Bear in mind this is a club that spent around £70m in the Championship last season, including £32m on strikers. On paper, Villa should be safely ensconced in the top two.
But they aren’t, and on Tuesday evening they face a Cardiff City team with far lower budgets and yet one that is still holding on to second place with Fulham breathing down their necks. One win and three defeats for Bruce’s team in their last five league games has burst the automatic promotion bubble. Fail to gain promotion via the play-offs, and he should expect to lose his job.
And yet, somehow, Bruce is not the biggest managerial story at Villa Park. On Friday evening, Neil Warnock spent the best part of 30 seconds telling Nuno Espirito Santo to “f**k off”, having watched his side miss two stoppage-time penalties to stumble in their hopes of securing promotion. It was a piece of pure Warnock theatre.
With an expected Football Association charge to land, Warnock could do with a nerve-settling victory against Villa. Lose or draw, and home victory for Fulham against Reading would see Cardiff drop out of the top two. Astonishingly, they haven’t been lower than fourth in the table all season.
European game to watch – Marseille v RB Leipzig
There is a general feeling of anticlimax to this midweek’s European second legs. We are used to first legs being tight, tense affairs, low on goals but at least setting up the return games perfectly. For once, that didn’t happen last week.
In four of the Champions League or Europa League ties, a team holds a three-goal lead going into the second leg. Add in two more two-goal leads for heavy favourites Atletico Madrid and Lazio, and we are left with only two ties that could be described as ‘nicely poised’. We’ll instantly take away one of those; having won in Spain and scored two away goals, Bayern Munich are 1/50 to qualify against Sevilla.
Which all leaves us with Marseille vs RB Leipzig, and what could be a brilliant game at the Stade Velodrome on Thursday evening. Leipzig have a 1-0 lead given to them by the excellent Timo Werner, but have also been shafted by the Bundesliga. Their league game this weekend was scheduled for Monday evening, despite them playing in France less than 72 hours later. Fine work.
The bookmakers make Leipzig as short as 1/5 to qualify, which seems skinny despite Marseille’s lack of away goal. Marseille have lost only twice in all competitions at the Velodrome in the last 14 months, and have already beaten Athletic Bilbao and Sporting Braga in the Europa league by scorelines that would seem progress on Thursday. Recapture the atmosphere and performance of the 3-1 Bilbao win, and there is hope of a repeat.
Daniel Storey
