Big Midweek: Wenger, Liverpool, Lacazette, Real Madrid

Game to watch – Roma vs Liverpool
It’s necessary to take a step back to appreciate just how far Jurgen Klopp has taken Liverpool over the last eight months. Before the season began, Liverpool were either the fifth or sixth favourites for the Premier League title depending on which bookmaker you used, available at odds against to finish in the top four. There were concerns about Klopp’s ability to successfully combine domestic football with Champions League participation, but Liverpool were also rank outsiders to win the Champions League. There were even questions about whether Klopp had taken Liverpool significantly in the right direction.

Against that backdrop, Klopp has Liverpool safely – barring any collapse – ensconced in the top four and one game away from the European Cup final, all the while playing an attractive brand of football that only Manchester City have eclipsed in this country. Even if you consider that their Champions League route has been fortuitous (Sevilla, Porto, Roma), those teams have knocked out Manchester United and Barcelona. The two-legged victory over City was proof that Liverpool must be taken seriously.

There is no doubt that Liverpool could concede three goals on Wednesday evening. They allowed Roma to score twice in five minutes at Anfield, and retain their ability to concede in spurts. Klopp will not need to persuade his players that the tie is not yet dead.

And yet there are plenty of reasons to think that Liverpool will not fail where Barcelona did. Whilst the first leg at the Camp Nou was far closer than the scoreline suggested, Liverpool could feasibly have beaten Roma by six goals at Anfield. While Barcelona tried to shut up shop in the Stadio Olimpico, barely trying to attack, Klopp has long been convinced that his team’s best form of defence is to attack. The way they obliterated Roma at Anfield was like nothing we have seen from an English team in Europe against class for a long time.

Survive a second-leg collapse in Rome on Wednesday, and Liverpool will become the first Premier League participant in the European Cup final for six years. Given the spending of our financial elite over that period, it is remarkable that it is Liverpool in this position rather than Manchester City, Manchester United or Chelsea.

Three days before that 2012 final, when English football last ruled Europe, Liverpool sacked Kenny Dalglish after finishing eighth in the Premier League; plenty has happened since. What Brendan Rodgers started but lost, Klopp has carried forward. Do not underestimate the size of his achievement.

Player to watch – Aleksandar Kolarov
We all thought the same, wondering how Eusebio di Francesco thought for a second that his strategy was logical. Roma’s coach has earned effusive praise for his work at Sassuolo and in Rome, but he was committing tactical suicide. Playing with a high line against Liverpool’s attackers? You deserve all that you get.

But Di Francesco is not stupid. He knows the characteristics of Liverpool’s strikers, and also knows his defenders’ strengths. If this was the best way to set up against Liverpool, it was because it was the only way his team knew how. The gamble backfired, but Di Francesco will hope that another roll of the dice produces a very different number.

Kolarov is the perfect example of this Kamikaze style. The former Manchester City left-back has redeemed his reputation in Serie A, but his predilection for surging forward is hardly a secret. When Salah is your direct opponent, getting caught high up the pitch is criminal. See if Kolarov cares.

Now, Di Francesco and Kolarov have nothing to lose. With Klopp admitting that Salah has diminished defensive responsibilities, Roma could create overlaps by Kolarov running beyond his left winger. The absence of Diego Perotti hampers Roma’s hopes, but Trent Alexander-Arnold could still be overrun.

Or, a repeat of last Tuesday. Kolarov ventures forward, the attack breaks down and in one movement Salah is running freely down the wing without a left-back to trouble him. That forces Federico Fazio to drift wide from centre-back, creating space for Roberto Firmino in the middle. Expect fireworks. Again.

Manager to watch – Arsene Wenger
It comes to this. Arsenal may have three Premier League games remaining, but Thursday could mark the end of Wenger’s competitive tenure in charge of the club. With their absence from the top four for a second successive season confirmed by defeat at Old Trafford, elimination from the Europa League on Thursday would make the final three matches of the season an extended farewell, but purely a symbolic one.

It’s hard to have much faith in Arsenal’s progression, given their missed opportunity at the Emirates last week. Having taken the lead against a team with ten men and dominated Simeone’s side, Arsenal had a chance to put one foot in the final. Instead, they chose to shoot themselves squarely in that foot.

Arsenal now face one of European football’s stingiest home defences. Atletico might have moved stadiums over the course of last summer, but there has been no need for acclimatisation. The last time they conceded at home was January 20, and only three of their last 37 home matches have produced a result that would see Arsenal qualify in 90 minutes. That’s a run that goes back to February 2017.

If that wasn’t bad enough, Arsenal’s away form is appalling. They have won four of their last 18 games away from the Emirates, including losing their last six in the Premier League. They have kept four away clean sheets in the league in 15 months.

The only reason to have faith in Arsenal is that Wenger’s impending departure might stir something magical within his players to give him a fitting send-off. Even then, Atletico and Simeone are the masters of football’s dark arts. If there is any magic to be had on Thursday, it is far more likely to come from them, and far more likely to be black.

Team to watch – Real Madrid
The stereotype is that Simeone has created an Atletico Madrid team that prefers to do it ugly, the perfect antidote to the artisans and artists from across the city. This is guts vs Galacticos, the people vs the power and motivation vs money.

Unfortunately, that fails to stack up over the last three years. While Simeone has indeed built a side in his own image, one that (often literally) punches above its own weight, Real Madrid’s soft centre has been hardened by Zinedine Zidane. In the Champions League, Real Madrid have become European football’s great survivors. Even if they regularly win in spite of themselves, they still win.

Madrid were lacklustre in Munich last Wednesday, and yet still became the first team to beat Bayern at home since Dortmund in the DFB-Pokal a year earlier. The only team to beat Bayern in the Champions League in Munich in the last four years is Zidane’s Real Madrid. They have done it twice, and both times they recovered from a goal down to win 2-1. That shows some guts.

Now Real Madrid have one foot in the final again, and Zidane is closing in on becoming the first manager in the history of the game to win three consecutive European Cups. It would be the stand-out period of dominance across world football in the last 20 years, and nobody saw it coming.

One-on-one battle to watch – Alexandre Lacazette vs Diego Godin
Fair play to Alexandre Lacazette for making the best of this difficult situation. The arrival of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has threatened his status as centre-forward, while Aubameyang’s ineligibility for the Europa League means that Lacazette has been forced to work part-time as support striker and part-time as the leading man.

In those circumstances, Lacazette has responded after a barren run. Seven goals in eight games are the raw figures, but the Frenchman’s chance conversion and movement in the penalty area have also noticeably improved. See his run and then towering leap to give Arsenal the lead last Thursday for persuasive evidence.

Now Arsenal need Lacazette like never before. After the relative deluge of shots at the Emirates last weekend, Arsenal are likely to find clear chances hard to come by in the Wanda Metropolitano. Even after his recent improvement, Lacazette’s chance conversion ranks 18th in the Premier League of all players to have attempted 20 or more shots. It might take a perfect performance to take Arsenal to Lyon.

Non-league games to watch – Boreham Wood vs AFC Fylde and Aldershot Town vs Ebbsfleet United
There is a change to the National League season for 2017/18. Rather than the usual four-team play-offs to decide the extra promotion spot, as is customary in the Football League, this season’s play-offs will contain six teams in a bid to increase excitement across the division until the end of April.

This midweek, the four teams that finished between fourth and seventh face each other in one-off matches at the home of the higher-placed team to see who progresses to the play-off semi-finals against Tranmere Rovers and Sutton United. The final day of the regular season on Saturday saw plenty of change, with Boreham Wood going above Aldershot and Ebbsfleet United into fourth, meaning that those two clubs face each other with Borehamwood hosting AFC Fylde. Fylde held on for the point they needed at Wrexham, making Dover Athletic’s win at Woking academic.

BT Sport’s coverage of the National League has been excellent this season, with either Matt Smith or James Richardson presenting. Do yourself a favour and watch the first televised play-off action of the season on Wednesday or Thursday night.

European game to watch – Red Bull Salzburg vs Marseille
I mean it’s literally the other Europa League semi-final or nothing, so I haven’t got much choice. Still, you do get to watch Dimitri Payet and Florian Thauvin doing wonderful things with each other. West Ham supporters can feel sad; Newcastle United supporters can be absolutely baffled.

Daniel Storey