Big Weekend: Chelsea, Mourinho, Lukaku, Cahill, Smalling

Game to watch – Chelsea vs Manchester United
A season to be saved and a reputation to be redeemed. If Manchester United know only victory will do at Wembley, Antonio Conte faces the scenario of winning the FA Cup and immediately leaving Chelsea.

It would be a little odd, should that happen. Conte would have won the Premier League title and the FA Cup, and be allowed to leave Chelsea, possibly even sacked. Mourinho would have won a Europa League trophy and the League Cup after receiving greater backing in the transfer market at Manchester United, and have been handed a bumper new contract. Funny ol’ game.

Given what is at stake for both managers, how much they care about their lasting reputations and the public spats between the two this season, it’s hard to sell this game as much other than Conte vs Mourinho. Memories of the last FA Cup final between these two clubs, the miserable visual fare of 2007, lingers. So too does the fact that three of the last 13 meetings between these two teams have contained more than two goals. It is optimistic to predict a classic.

But that does not mean that it won’t be absorbing. It has actually become unusual for the FA Cup final to be between two top-six teams. In 2016 we had Crystal Palace, 2015 had Aston Villa, 2014 had Hull City, 2013 had Wigan, 2011 had Stoke and 2010 had Portsmouth. Even if the excitement might be lacking, when the result matters this much to two massive teams and managers, the process demands your viewing. What else are you going to do – watch the live reaction to a man marrying a woman?

Player to watch – Romelu Lukaku
One of a few Manchester United players to come out of this season with plenty of credit. That’s not to say Lukaku has not come in for fierce criticism at stages of the campaign, but his 27 goals in all competitions have been achieved in spite of United’s creativity, not because of it. In the Premier League, United created almost 70 fewer chances than any other top-six team.

Now, United are reliant on Lukaku regaining his fitness for Saturday’s final. Without him, options suddenly look very short. Neither Marcus Rashford nor Anthony Martial took their chance as a striker in his absence, and felt the full force of Mourinho’s public censure.

Being injured is not something Lukaku is used to. Only one Premier League player has managed more outfield minutes in the last four seasons, sensational given that he has usually played as a lone striker expected to harry and hassle defenders as well as possess the explosive pace to burst past defenders. Hitting the ground running after recovery is not easy for a striker; Lukaku must achieve it.

All the signs point to Lukaku being fit, but this will be another test of his reputation. The questions about big-game performance don’t go away, but there would be no better way to sign off the season than by winning his team a trophy at the expense of the club that let him go. Before scoring a hat-trick to knock England out of the World Cup group stage, of course.

Manager to watch – Jose Mourinho
Jose Mourinho is a winner. In an ideal Mourinho world, nobody would care about style, only who won what. Every manager would hold up fingers at the end of the season to show how many trophies they had won.

Unfortunately, style does matter, and it matters an awful lot more when you don’t win. Win and you can point at the silver. Had United finished two or three points behind Manchester City and played as they have, there would be no criticism. Had United finished 19 points behind Manchester City but played with an attacking vibrancy that made progress easy to see, there would be less criticism. As it is, criticism is deserved.

After all, this is the great Mourinho paradox. A man who is so obsessed with winning that it defines each of his relationships within the game also cannot bear that he is renowned as a defensive manager. That his style of winning could ever be considered of less value than anyone else’s gnaws away at his ego.

This is why Mourinho is a man of finals, and why he has won 12 of 14 since becoming a manager. On these occasions, style does not matter. Nobody remembers how you played in an FA Cup final, only who won. Style is nothing. Winning is everything.

Every other time Mourinho’s back has been against the wall, he has done the necessary. The archetypal winner has found a way to win. But this might be his biggest knife edge yet. Should United beat Chelsea, whatever it takes, Mourinho will puff out his chest and talk up his achievement. Should Mourinho lose to his old employers, it will only add to the suspicion that what progress has been achieved is coming too slowly for a club that expected him to win the title inside his first three seasons.

Teams to watch – Serie A’s relegation fighters
There is very little to get excited about during the final weekend in Spain and Italy. In La Liga, everything is already sorted, giving us a total dead rubber day. In Serie A, Juventus have won the title and only Inter beating Lazio in Rome will change the Champions League qualification picture.

Yet at the bottom of the table, there is still a ludicrous amount at stake. Benevento have gone, never good enough for the top flight despite an admirable effort, with Verona joining them in Serie B next season. But 18th place could still be taken by any one of five teams. And this is where it really gets complicated.

Crotone are 18th and behind SPAL on head-to-head record alone, so bettering SPAL’s result will make them safe. But Crotone and SPAL are only a point behind Cagliari, so both bettering their result would bring them into the mix. In turn Cagliari are just a point behind Udinese and Chievo, with the latter ahead of the former on head-to-head-record too. Crotone could finish as high as 14th. The maths alone is enough to make you feel sexy.

Now I’ve built it all up, a confession: Crotone are probably going down because they’re away at Napoli on the final day. Sorry.

One-on-one battle to watch – Gary Cahill vs Chris Smalling
Not a direct battle, clearly, but the announcement of England’s World Cup squad creates an interesting opportunity for comparison on Saturday.

Three months ago, neither Cahill nor Smalling were going to the World Cup. Gareth Southgate had expressed concerns about Smalling’s distribution (most notably the worry that under pressure he tended to send the ball long), while Cahill was omitted from the squad because he had been dropped by Chelsea.

That all changed with Cahill’s re-introduction to Antonio Conte’s team. Coinciding with the decision to leave out the experienced Joe Hart from the squad to Russia, Cahill was back in the fold and could even start England’s first match.

Smalling might reasonably claim that he has been slightly hard done to. He has started plenty of games under Mourinho, who knows how to organise a defence, and if the doubts surround his passing then that is hardly Cahill’s forte either.

On Saturday, every Manchester United player will be determined to win the FA Cup to add some gloss to a season with very little shine. But Smalling might have more reason than most to perform. Sticking two fingers up at the watching Southgate would be a nice way to sign off the campaign.

Football League game to watch – Notts County vs Coventry City
Not only is this the best Football League game to watch this weekend; it’s the only game. League Two is the final division to play their play-off semi-final second legs. Exeter vs Lincoln took place on Thursday, but Notts vs Coventry is your Friday evening feast.

The first leg was ludicrously eventful. Played out on a pitch that had standing water after a biblical downpour pre-match, Coventry dominated the first half but Notts’ direct football eventually came to the fore given the conditions, and Jonathan Forte gave them a lead.

Kevin Nolan was a happy man on the touchline until Coventry were given a controversial – and I mean controversial – late penalty. Matt Tootle was adjudged to have fouled Tom Bayliss in the area, but in real-time it seemed clear that he played the ball. Replays were even more damning of Gavin Ward’s decision.

Neither Coventry nor Notts were among the hot favourites for promotion at the start of the season, but they are two of the biggest clubs in the division and have two of the biggest stadiums. There may be over 12,000 in Meadow Lane on Friday evening. For fourth-tier football, that’s mightily impressive.

European game to watch – Lyon vs Nice
The identity of Ligue 1’s 2017/18 champions may have been obvious before a ball had even been kicked, but France is actually one of the only major European leagues with interest towards the top ahead of the final day.

With 88 minutes of their game against Strasbourg played, Lyon had their Champions League place for next season in their hands. They were winning 2-1, and knew victory would guarantee them entry. Strasbourg then scored twice and blew the whole thing open.

Now, there is still much to play for. Atletico Madrid’s Europa League victory means that each of Ligue 1’s top three will get automatic group stage access in the Champions League, and now their beaten finalists from Wednesday have the second chance in four days to reach European football’s top table.

With all the games played at the same time on Saturday evening, Marseille must beat Amiens and hope for good news from Lyon, who host Nice, or hope Monaco lose to relegation-threatened Troyes. The most likely scenario is that Marseille are left heartbroken again.

Writer to watch (go on holiday for two bloody weeks) – Daniel Storey