Brighton vs Aston Villa prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
If you ignore the Merseyside derby, Wednesday evening’s Premier League fixtures have a feel of ‘let’s hide these fixtures away on a midweek, so nobody really notices them’.
Watching Bournemouth, Manchester City and Crystal Palace hammering more nails in the coffins of Ipswich Town, Leicester City and Southampton doesn’t really appeal. Fortunately Brighton and Aston Villa are still battling for European places, so we’ll go with that for today’s predictions.
Villa travel to the south coast with a spring in their step after barging past Preston to book their place in the FA Cup semi-finals at the weekend. Sadly for Brighton the mood will be very different after losing on penalties to Nottingham Forest.
People say it’s better to go out of the FA Cup in the quarter-finals than the semi-finals, but they are drunk. Going out on penalties so close to the final hurdle is a bitter blow to any side and the last thing Brighton will want to face is a cock-a-hoop Villa.
That fourth Champions League spot is still making come-hither eyes to both clubs across the sweaty Premier League dancefloor. It’s just unfortunate there’s another cluster of clubs milling around their handbags waiting to pounce too.
Brushing aside the cup defeat, Brighton were on a great seven-game unbeaten run, which included six wins – three of those at home. However, the opposition were arguably a bit ‘meh’. Bashing Southampton and Chelsea twice isn’t anything to write home about.
Villa have been lumbering around with the ‘great at home, but not away’ tag for a while now, but they’ve won their last five, three of those away so come into this clash in tip-top form.
Brighton don’t really like this fixture, they’ve only won once in the last eight Premier League games, Villa winning five of those.
The Seagulls did manage a 2-2 draw at Villa Park at the end of December, and won this fixture in the 2023/24 campaign thanks to a late Joao Pedro winner. So it’s not all doom and gloom.
This match is still hard to call but it will probably boil down to who has more gas in the tank after the FA Cup weekend, and that extra-time will have an injury-hit Brighton running on empty sooner than Villa.
Brighton vs Aston Villa prediction
Villa have had the upper hand over Brighton recently, with five wins in the last seven. Odds of a straight Villa win are a bit skinny, so chuck in a BTTS – yes too as it’s landed in four of the last five in this fixture.
The two sides played out a 2-2 draw when they last met and the tired legs from the weekend, is likely to throw up more attacking opportunities and defensive errors.
Brighton forward Joao Pedro likes playing against Aston Villa. In three appearances against them in a Brighton shirt he’s scored once and has three assists.
Two of those came against Villa in the reverse fixture in late December and he scored the winner in Brighton’s only victory against Villa in the last eight games, back in May 2024.
Brighton team news:
Saturday’s FA Cup defeat took it’s toll on Brighton with both Georginio Rutter and Adam Webster picking up injuries that will keep them out of the Villa match.
They clamber on board a large table of crocks that includes Ferdi Kadioglu, Igor Julio, Jason Steele, Joel Veltman, Tariq Lamptey, James Milner, Mats Wieffer.
Solly March and Matt O’Riley are on the road to recovery and may make the squad.
Rutter’s injury could see a shuffle up front with Pedro and Gruda pushing for a start. Welbeck may also be given a rest.
Brighton expected line-up:
(4-2-3-1) Verbruggen – Hinshelwood, Van Hecke, Dunk, Estupinan – Baleba, Gomez – Minteh, Gruda, Mitoma – Pedro
Aston Villa team news
By contrast Aston Villa are relatively free of injury, with only Ross Barkley struggling with a calf injury.
Watkins didn’t start against Preston, but is expected to return, which will push Rashford back out to left wing.
John McGinn could also return, with Jacob Ramsey and Boubacar Kamara the players stepping aside. Amadou Onana will be knocking on the door to take over from Youri Tielemans too.
Aston Villa expected line-up:
(4-2-3-1) Martinez – Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne – McGinn, Tielemans – Rogers, Asensio, Rashford – Watkins
Brighton vs Aston Villa: How to watch and listen
You won’t find Brighton v Aston Villa on any UK television or streaming services, but it is available via Peacock in the US.
Radio commentary will be available on Talksport Radio.
Brighton vs Aston Villa stats:
– Aston Villa have lost just one of eight matches with Brighton, which includes five wins.
– If Brighton win it will be the first time they’ve won four in a row at home in the top flight
– Villa have lost just three times in 18 matches since the turn of the year.
– Villa have have kept four clean sheets in the past five games
– Brighton have only lost two of their 14 league games at the Amex Stadium this season
Fabian Hurzeler (Brighton manager) quotes:
On Aston Villa:
“It’s a duel where we know that it will be a big fight.
“We know what Villa look like – a very mature team, very experienced team. They want to get into Europe.
“We have to play very maturely. We have to play with a big intensity. We can’t play soft like we played in some moments against Nottingham Forest.
“We have to be more ruthless, and that’s what we have to improve in comparison with the game before. Then I’m sure that we have a big chance tomorrow.”
On the ‘surprise’ of potentially going fourth in the table:
“Why should that surprise me? We’ve always been a club that doesn’t want to hide behind our ambitions or be seen as the small club.
“Although we don’t have the financial budget of other teams, you can still play a good season and fight for Europe if you stick together as a team.”
On Forest defeat:
“A setback and a disappointment doesn’t feel great, but I always say the feeling of a comeback is always greater, so we have to work for that.”
Unai Emery (Aston Villa manager) quotes:
On remaining challenge of season
“We’re excited and demanding ourselves to be focused for the last two months in three competitions.
“In the last matches, we are getting better. [Wednesday] is a very good test again for how we can be more consistent, playing at the level we want to achieve.
“There are a lot of teams there fighting for these positions. In the FA Cup, we’re playing a semi-final, and in the Champions League, a quarter-final – it’s amazing how we are facing the last part of the season.”
On quick turnaround from Preston game
“We are happy. Of course, four days to rest is better than three, but it is not an excuse. We are not focusing on that. We are just trying to prepare as best as possible for this match. Rest, good food and being less on the field, and more analysis.”
On freshness of Villa squad
“Two years ago we were barely finishing the season strong and fresh in our mind. Last year we finished tired, not fresh, (with) injured players. This year, the only way we have is to finish as best as possible by being fresh, being ambitious and demanding to play until the last minute.
“Of course, always we are at risk of getting some more injured players, but now we are recovering every player, more or less. To have players for 90 minutes to keep our structure as strong as possible and physically as strong as possible is very important.”
Brighton v Aston Villa referee stats
This will be Stuart Atwell 16th Premier League game this season, and he’s already dished out 55 yellows at an average of 3.67 a game. Only two reds have left his pocket.
He last held the whistle in a Brighton match away at Leicester in a 2-2 draw in December.
The week before he officiated Villa’s 3-0 defeat to Chelsea.
Matt Donohue will be on VAR duty