Bulgaria vs Republic of Ireland: Prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
The Republic of Ireland will look to preserve their Group B status when they visit Group C challengers Bulgaria in the first of a two-legged Nations League play-off on Thursday.
The hosts were battered 5-0 by Ireland’s neighbour Northern Ireland in the group phase, a result which ultimately ended their automatic promotion hopes and set up this tie.
Bulgarian revolutionary Hristro Botev must have been a very special man, for his countrymen named not one, not two, not three, but FOUR football stadiums after him.
Stadion Hristo Botev is by far the prettiest of them all and it has the nicest pitch, so it’s excellent news for Ireland that it’ll play host to Thursday’s Nations League clash.
Anyone lucky enough to be born this century will know nothing of Bulgaria as a footballing force, as they’ve featured in one major tournament since 1994.
But more than just exported wheat and hairy men in leotards lifting terrifying amounts of weight, they’ve produced some stunning ballers over the years, like Hristo Stoichkov Stoichkov, a man so good they named his twice, and Man United cult hero Dimitar Berbatov.
Stoichkov scored over 200 career goals including six at the 1994 World Cup to land the Golden Shoe. Bulgaria finishing fourth was a factor as he bagged the Ballon d’Or.
Talking of prolific strikers with great names, Troy Parrott is among the Irish players hoping to build on a positive domestic season.
However, it’s been defenders that have played the starring role in the Nations League, with one scoring in five of the last seven matches the Republic have scored in.
Standing tall in either box may just be enough to win against a physical side and history suggests this is the sort of game the visitors can excel in.
Bulgaria team news
Goalkeeper Dimitar Mitov has conceded six goals in six Nations League fixtures so surely starts ahead of three others.
The defence may be unchanged from the 1-1 draw with Belarus, meaning Viktor Popov, Simeon Petrov, Alex Petkov, and Darmstadt full-back Fabian Nurnberger in a back four.
Andrian Kraev has performed reasonably well in Liga Portugal and could edge out Leeds United midfielder Ilia Gruev in the holding role.
Bulgarian footballer of the year Kiril Despodov is Bulgaria’s prolific joint-top scorer with one goal alongside Kraev and Vasil Panayotov.
Bulgaria expected line-up
Mitov – Popov, S Petrov, A Petkov, Nurnberger – Panayotov, Kraev, Milanov – M Petkov, Kolev, Kirilov
Republic of Ireland team news
Gavin Bazunu’s return to full fitness gives Heimir Hallgrimsson options between the sticks, though it’s hard to imagine he replaces Liverpool stopper Caoimhin Kelleher.
Will Smallbone’s withdrawal from the squad opened the door for Southampton teammate Ryan Manning to receive a late call-up.
Ireland need to find a long-term solution at left-back and while Robbie Brady is an option, Callum O’Dowda is enjoying a good season on the left side for Cardiff City.
Jake O’Brien, Josh Cullen and Liam Knight should get the chance to build upon their good club form.
There’s a choice to be made in attack with Evan Ferguson still scratching around for form since his move to West Ham, but he could still get the nod to partner Troy Parrott.
There are first call-ups for James Abankwah, Rocco Vata, Jimmy Dunne and Mark Sykes, one of three Bristol City players in the squad.
Republic of Ireland expected line-up
Kelleher – Doherty, O’Brien, Collins, O’Dowda – Ebosele, Cullen, Knight, Szmodics – Parrott, Ferguson
Bulgaria vs Republic of Ireland: How to watch and listen
This match will be shown live on free-to-air RTE and online via the RTE player for viewers based in Ireland.
Bulgaria vs Republic of Ireland stats:
Neither side has ever won away from home in the history of this fixture.
Bulgaria have won just four of their previous 21 Nations League matches.
Iran, Lithuania and Montenegro were the last three teams to win in Bulgaria.
Ireland are unbeaten in seven meetings since the late 80s, two of which they won.
Ireland’s only away win in the Nations League came against Finland (2-1) in October.
Heimir Hallgrimsson (Republic of Ireland) quotes
On accusations that League of Ireland players need to leave LOI to receive a call-up:
“My English isn’t perfect, but if I said it in a wrong way, I am sorry for that.
“That’s absolutely not my feeling. If you look at my past as a national team coach, I have regularly taken domestic players. Whether it was the Iceland players or the Jamaica players from the domestic leagues. Just to shake the boat a little bit and to show respect to the league. Especially when you do as well as Shamrock Rovers, then for sure, you are playing at the level that we compare with other players.”
On playing new players:
“We selected everyone with that in mind. We think they are ready to play.
“Even though we think they are players who will be good in the future, we don’t select unless we think he can play.
“That’s how I see it. I will trust all the players to play.”
On Jake O’Brien and the threat he brings:
“That’s generalising but that is why he has been really impressive and also going forward, he has been really good going forward if you have seen his matches.
“That has been impressive and of course when you have a guy like this on the far post in the box, it’s difficult to defend when you have a player with his attributes in the box. That’s a big advantage.”
Bulgaria vs Republic of Ireland referee stats:
Elite referee and Man United fan (pure speculation) Benoit Bastien spent 90 minutes pointing to the penalty spot at Old Trafford recently, losing the plot and brandishing nine cards in a relatively clean game.
The Frenchman is more likely to point to the spot than the vast majority of top UEFA officials, awarding 0.68 penalties per game this season.
He resisted the urge the point to the spot during his only previous Nations League assignment this term, a routine 2-0 win for Czechia against Albania.
Benoit is awarding 23.82 fouls and showing 4.32 cards per game.
Bulgaria vs Republic of Ireland prediction:
Pay no attention to the fact that Ireland won just two of their six Nations League matches, as Greece and England are a steep step up from Bulgaria.
It’s not been a successful few years for the Irish but it’s worth noting the level of opposition they’ve consistently been pitted against while managing to remain relatively competitive.
Bulgaria’s only wins in 11 matches on home soil came against Northern Ireland (1-0) and Gibraltar (5-1), so no one is going to convince us that the visitors should be odds against.
These sides played out two low-scoring draws when they last met in 2020, though we would argue that Hallgrimsson’s side boasts more quality these days with plenty of Premier League experience.
Above all, they’ll need to match the atmosphere and physicality of their hosts, but we believe they’re well-built in that department and should be able to dominate in both boxes.
