Carragher picks team with 56% chance to miss out on Champions League qualification
Jamie Carragher has gone against the odds in picking his two teams to miss out on Champions League qualification with two games to play in the Premier League.
In descending order, Arsenal, Newcastle, Manchester City, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest are all still mathematically in the race to secure a place in Europe’s showcase competition next season, with six points separating second and seventh place in the English top flight.
The Gunners all-but secured their spot after battling back to draw 2-2 with Liverpool on Sunday, after Newcastle won the crunch clash with rivals Chelsea to put them in a strong position, while the Blues will still secure their place with two wins in their last two games.
Manchester City were held to a shock draw by Southampton on Saturday, while Aston Villa got a crucial win over Bournemouth to keep them in the running, before Nottingham Forest’s dire run continued with a draw against Leicester at the City Ground.
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The weekend’s results mean, according to Opta, Arsenal have a 99.9 per cent chance of qualifying, Newcastle’s chances increased from 77.89% to 95.5%, while Man City now have a 92.7 per cent chance.
Chelsea currently hold the last qualification spot but their chances now stand at 56.3%, down from 66.52%, though still above Aston Villa at 39.9% and Forest, who are given a slight chance at 17.8%.
Despite Chelsea being odds on to qualify, Carragher reckons they will be beaten to fifth spot by Villa, who face Tottenham (H) and Manchester United (A), while Chelsea face Manchester United (H) ahead of a huge clash with Forest (A) on the final day.
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And the Liverpool legend believes the Forest atmosphere on the final day, whether they still have a chance of qualifying or not, will play a big factor.
Speaking on Sky Sports, Carragher said: “Chelsea will beat Man United [on Friday]. It is whether they can beat Nottingham Forest away [on the final day of the season].
“There will be a big atmosphere there [at the City Ground on the last day of the season].
“Maybe even if they can’t get Champions League football, I think Nottingham Forest, last game of the season, the supporters will be desperate to say, almost like a big thank you, for the season that they’ve had.
“Forest have got European football, great achievement.
“I actually think it will be Chelsea and Nottingham Forest who miss out and Aston Villa get in.”
