Champions League chase: rating the top-four contenders

Manchester City and Liverpool are going to finish in the top four. There, we said it. But what looked like a wild multi-team scrap for one spot behind those two and Chelsea has been opened up by the European champions’ current struggles. It’s now a six-way scrap for two places, we’ve decided. Here’s more…

Chelsea
3rd, P23, Pts 44, GD +28

Why they will qualify for the Champions League
They are better than all the other teams here and already have at least a seven-point headstart on them. Have scored more goals than any of their potential pursuers, and conceded fewer than all bar eighth-placed Wolves. Alright, the title is gone and Liverpool could also disappear over the horizon with their games in hand, but Chelsea should absolutely cruise home to third, never mind fourth, all things being equal.

Why they won’t qualify for the Champions League
Are not currently cruising and all things are not currently equal. Thomas Tuchel appears to have lost sight of what precisely his best team is at an inopportune moment, with the Romelu Lukaku Problem causing a headache. That seven-point cushion was significantly bigger until very recently and belies the fact that multiple postponements among the chasing pack and Chelsea’s own stuttering form means the stagger has plenty of unwinding to do. At least one of Spurs and Arsenal must drop points in their games in hand given they play each other, but both now have Chelsea firmly in range while West Ham and Manchester United can make serious inroads into that lead. That, of course, is because of Chelsea’s run of five draws in seven games. That they are even included in this sort of tish and fipsy feature having seemed locked in for a top-four finish all season long is a concern in itself. Sunday’s Stamford Bridge clash with Spurs is huge – perhaps the most significant game of the season so far for the Champions League qualification picture.

West Ham
4th, P22, Pts 37, GD +11

Why they will qualify for the Champions League
The team currently in possession after proving last season’s Moyesolution was no fluke. A more potent attacking threat than any of the teams below them and in Declan Rice they have one of the standout performers of the season. Their first XI is stronger than any previous West Ham side in the Premier League era.

Why they won’t qualify for the Champions League
Sixth behind both Spurs and Arsenal in a table adjusted for points per game in this uniquely uneven Premier League season, while Manchester United would also overhaul them if they win their game in hand and Wolves would move level on points should they win both of theirs. Unlike with Spurs and certainly Manchester United, a sense that this is West Ham already operating at their absolute peak level and it already looks like it’s not quite enough. A relatively small and, at this level, inexperienced squad coped admirably with the novel difficulties of the Premier-Europa balancing act before Christmas but will be tested anew by those challenges when the knockout stages of a competition West Ham should have serious designs on winning resumes next month.

Tottenham
5th, P19, Pts 36, GD +4

Why they will qualify for the Champions League
Best manager outside the top three (at least). The form horse and Wednesday night’s truly absurd win at Leicester has had a dramatic effect both tangible and intangible. It visibly galvanised the squad – Harry Kane was already having his best game of the season but he has not looked that engaged with the fans nor they with him at any previous point all season as he was during the post-winner limbs – and instantly wiped out the bad vibes of the Carabao shambles against Chelsea and moribund FA Cup win over Morecambe. Tangibly, it gave them a clear numerical advantage in the race. They may be fifth but when the stagger unwinds things should look different. Win even a couple of their assorted games in hand and they will have a clear cushion over fifth. Heck, win them all and they cruise past Chelsea as well. Seems unlikely, sure, but so did a lot of things with 94:51 on the clock at the King Power.

Why they won’t qualify for the Champions League
They are Spurs. At any point their Spursiness could overwhelm Conte’s Conteness; they’ve already come close on a couple of occasions. The absence of European football mitigates the impact, but they do have a lot of games to squeeze in and may not always have a lot of preparation time for them. The first XI is plenty good enough but, Bergwijn heroics notwithstanding, there are few outside a small core group that Conte can trust. Tough run-in, too: they still have to go to Stamford Bridge, Anfield and the Etihad (as well as Old Trafford) and have yet to play a very decent Brighton side at all.

Arsenal
6th, P20, Pts 35, GD +8

Why they will qualify for the Champions League
Ignore all that August unpleasantness and Arsenal have been as good as anyone outside the top two, taking 35 points from their last 17 Premier League games. There’s no way around the fact those August games definitely count – Arsenal are cleverly exploiting some exceedingly daft rules right now, but even the Premier League aren’t going to allow them to retrospectively cancel a whole month – but that’s a sustained run of two-points-per-game football. Maintain that for another 18 matches and they will be close. And a team that, through adversity, is starting to shed some of its older, more troublesome members in favour of focusing and relying instead on the rich promise of its youth is, if anything, improving. No European or cup commitments whatsoever by the end of January is not really the plan for a club like Arsenal, but it does permit a laser focus and means they can take a couple more postponements without reaching fixture pile-up crisis stage. Went 1-0 up against Manchester City.

Why they won’t qualify for the Champions League
Those “couple more postponements” are already in the books thanks to Chelsea’s Club World Cup participation and Liverpool reaching the Carabao Cup final. It means the fixtures Arsenal need to rearrange are pretty tricky ones: Wolves and Liverpool at home, Spurs and Chelsea away. Although Mikel Arteta has outlasted his fellow members of the ‘give total rookies absolutely massive jobs for unconvincing club DNA reasons’ club (and in truth always looked likely to prove the best of that gang), he’s still a rookie going up against some of the very best and most experienced managers in the world in this scrap. Need a favour from at least a couple of the teams above them, and when have West Ham or Spurs ever proved flaky clown-car clubs in the past?

Manchester United
7th, P21, Pts 35, GD +5

Why they will qualify for the Champions League
Best squad outside the top three, and arguably outside the top one. Have one of the very best players of all time and a seemingly perfect blend of experience and high-quality youth. For all the talk of CRISIS, they’ve lost one of their last nine in the Premier League.

Why they won’t qualify for the Champions League
A gaping hole where the centre of midfield should be. The fact they are seventh, deservedly, despite the rich potential of the squad tells its own story. For all that CRISIS talk is ludicrously overblown, they’ve won only six of their last 16 in the Premier League.

Wolves
8th, P20, Pts 31, GD +2

Why they will qualify for the Champions League
They don’t concede any goals. Only Manchester City have conceded fewer. They’ve conceded more than once in only three of their 20 games, which means games against Wolves are never safe.

Why they won’t qualify for the Champions League
They don’t score any goals. Only Norwich and Burnley have scored fewer. They’ve scored more than once in only five of their 20 games, which means games for Wolves are never safe.