The race for the top four: Why they will, why they won’t

Will Ford

Manchester United

Form: DWDDW

Remaining fixtures: West Ham (H); Brighton (H); Spurs (A); Burnley (H); Leeds (A); Liverpool (H); Aston Villa (A); Leicester (H); Fulham (H); Wolves (A)

Why they will qualify
Simply, they’ve been the second best team in the Premier League this season. Whether they’ve actually improved is very much up for debate, but with Bruno Fernandes in the team and a future Ballon d’Or winner on the bench, it would be quite the f*** up to f*** it up from here. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer surely wouldn’t survive.

Why they won’t qualify
The penalties dry up, Fernandes gets injured and utter panic ensues.

 

Leicester City

Form: WWLDW

Remaining fixtures: Sheff Utd (H); Man City (H); West Ham (A); West Brom (H); Crystal Palace (H); Southampton (A); Newcastle (H); Man Utd (A); Chelsea (A); Spurs (H)

Why they will qualify
Daniel Amartey’s 87th-minute winner at Brighton was a huge and crucial moment for the Foxes. It was a telling contribution from a player who has endured nightmare injury problems and the perfect example of Brendan Rodgers’ masterful use of his squad in the face of adversity. Leicester currently have eight players injured with no clear indication as to when key stars James Maddison and Harvey Barnes will return as James Justin faces the rest of the season on the treatment table. But Leicester have rolled with the punches beautifully, with the strength and togetherness of the squad – along with Rodgers’ tactical tweaks – allowing them to navigate their way through games in the absence of their most creative influences. And Kelechi Iheanacho picking up Jamie Vardy’s goalscoring slack has been a very welcome surprise.

Why they won’t qualify
With seven games to go last season, we said Leicester were ‘in the process of imploding’. Just two wins in those remaining fixtures completed that collapse, having been 11 points clear of fifth at the turn of the year. This season is different in that Rodgers’ side have never had such a comfortable cushion and their form has been consistently pretty good rather than amazing and then sh*t. But there is a sense that they are again running out of steam at the wrong time. They’ll need to get most of the way there before those last three games.

 

Chelsea

Form: WDDWW

Remaining fixtures: Leeds (A); West Brom (H); Crystal Palace (A); Brighton (H); West Ham (A); Fulham (H); Man City (A); Arsenal (H); Leicester (H); Aston Villa (A)

Why they will qualify
They don’t concede goals, therefore they don’t lose games. The back five and the holding duo (whoever Thomas Tuchel selects) are all on top form, Thiago Silva is coming back, Kai Havertz has finally arrived and Christian Pulisic is about to be unleashed. Chelsea should never have been in a Champions League qualification battle. They’ve got the second best squad in the league and should be far closer to Manchester City; they would have been had Tuchel took charge from the start of the season.

Why they won’t qualify
If a team scores two goals against them they will struggle; if they score three they’re f***ed. Tuchel’s calculated integration of the underperforming, expensive attacking stars has worked in that opportunity has been spread in the most part. But in spite of these performances, that have allowed for adaptation for the new recruits, the lack of consistency in team selection also means things haven’t quite clicked in an attacking sense. The qualities of those players – Hakim Ziyech, Timo Werner, Havertz – are all very different, meaning Chelsea’s attack looks very different game to game and nowhere near as potent as it should be.

 

West Ham

Form: DWWLW

Remaining fixtures: Man Utd (A); Arsenal (H); Wolves (A); Leicester (H); Newcastle (A); Chelsea (H); Burnley (A); Everton (H); Brighton (A); West Brom (A); Southampton (H)

Why they will qualify
They just won’t go away, will they? “At the start, if you’d have given me top 10 I would have said, ‘thank you very much’,” David Moyes said last week. If you’d have offered him 48 points for the whole season he probably would have taken it – that’s nine more than the last campaign and they’ve got 11 to play. The recruitment has been perfect and every member of the team is playing out of their skin. Confidence and momentum are huge in a race like this; there is no team more up for the fight.

Why they won’t qualify
The old ‘form is temporary’ argument is in play here. This is going to sound incredibly harsh but is also testament to how brilliant Moyes and his players have been. Wwould you be surprised if this team were in a relegation battle? Many of us predicted they would be. Of the squads on this list, West Ham’s is the weakest. Again, what an incredible achievement to even be in with a shout.

 

Everton

Form: LWWWL

Remaining fixtures: Aston Villa (A); Burnley (H); Crystal Palace (H); Brighton (A); Spurs (H); Arsenal (A); Aston Villa (H); West Ham (A); Sheff Utd (H); Wolves (H); Man City (A)

Why they will qualify
Being calm and considered – the embodiment of their manager – will hold them in good stead. Carlo Ancelotti’s mood doesn’t alter: win, lose or draw. Richarlison has returned to form for the run-in and Allan’s return from injury is absolutely vital.

Why they won’t qualify
It feels like it’s a year too soon. A fairly drab performance against Chelsea illustrated the difference between them and a team of genuine Champions League quality. There are very clear gaps in the team and the squad which will no doubt be filled in the summer should their excellent recruitment continue.

 

 

Tottenham

Form: LLWWW

Remaining fixtures: Arsenal (A); Aston Villa (A); Newcastle (A); Man Utd (H); Everton (A); Sheff Utd (H); Leeds (A); Wolves (H); Aston Villa (H); Leicester (A); Southampton [TBC] (H)

Why they will qualify
Harry Kane. Son Heung-min. Gareth Bale.

Why they won’t qualify
Hugo Lloris. The defence.

 

Liverpool

Form: LLWLL

Remaining fixtures: Wolves (A); Arsenal (A); Aston Villa (H); Leeds (A); Newcastle (H); Man Utd (A); Southampton (H); West Brom (A); Burnley (A); Crystal Palace (H)

Why they will qualify
Fabinho’s return to midfield alongside Thiago Alcantara should have happened sooner. The Brazilian is a very good centre-back but he proved on Wednesday night that he remains one of the best holding midfielders in Europe. The flow of Liverpool’s attack improves dramatically with him in that position and the pressure on the back four reduces significantly. Mo Salah and Sadio Mane getting on the scoresheet will also have been a massive relief. We know just how many wins a firing Liverpool team can string together.

Why they won’t qualify
They’re seven points adrift and in relegation form. Just as it seemed nigh on impossible to disrupt the Liverpool machine last season, they’re finding it as hard to get it started again this campaign. Even if they do – and that’s a big if right now – it’s likely to be too late.

 

Aston Villa

Form: DLWLD

Remaining fixtures: Newcastle (A); Spurs (H); Fulham (H); Liverpool (A); Man City (H); West Brom (H); Everton (A); Man Utd (H); Crystal Palace (A); Spurs (A); Chelsea (H); Everton [TBC] (H)

Why they will qualify
In Jack Grealish’s absence, Villa have scored twice in four games. Had he not missed those games the chances are Dean Smith’s side would be in with a much better shout of the top four than they are now. If they are to pull off what would have been unthinkable at the start of the season, their captain will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting. But with Grealish’s desperation to perform for his home town club and also to cement his place in Gareth Southgate’s plans, on the back of a much-needed rest (albeit due to injury), we could be about to see some special performances from a very special player.

Why they won’t qualify
Eight of their last 11 games are against teams in the top nine.