Champions League qualification race predictions: Chelsea ruled out and Villa could become favourites
Chelsea might have messed up Champions League qualification but Newcastle and Man City are looking good. A straight shootout between Villa and Forest it is
The race to qualify for the Champions League has been filtered down to five contenders for three spots with four games remaining for all besides Nottingham Forest, who have one in hand.
Five points separate Newcastle in third from seventh-placed Aston Villa, who enjoy an six-point gap over Fulham.
With the Premier League securing a fifth Champions League spot for 2025/26 it means Newcastle (62 points), Manchester City (61), Chelsea (60), Forest (60) and Villa (57) will fight to join Liverpool and Arsenal in next season’s competition, with the two who miss out likely having to settle for Europa or Conference League fare.
But who should be expecting to win the race? Which side has form in their favour, or a kinder run-in? Who has already automatically added three points to their final total because they have still got to face Southampton? Let’s drill into the numbers to make a definitive prediction, even if we sadly cannot afford a supercomputer.
The remaining fixtures
Nottingham Forest – Brentford h (May 1st), Palace a (5th), Leicester h (11th), West Ham a (18th), Chelsea h (25th)
Newcastle – Brighton a (May 4th), Chelsea h (10th), Arsenal a (18th), Everton h (25th)
Manchester City – Wolves h (May 2nd), Southampton a (10th), Bournemouth h (18th), Fulham a (25th)
Chelsea – Liverpool h (May 4th), Newcastle a (10th), Manchester United h (18th), Nottingham Forest a (25th)
Aston Villa – Fulham h (May 3rd), Bournemouth a (10th), Spurs h (18th), Man Utd a (25th)
Other possible fixtures
Manchester City play Crystal Palace in the FA Cup final May 17.
Chelsea play Djurgarden in the Europa Conference League semi-final on May 1 and 8, with a potential final on May 28.
Which Champions League contender has the kindest run-in?
Based on the average current position of every team’s remaining opponents, some will be far happier with their schedule than others:
1) Nottingham Forest – 12.80
2) Manchester City – 12.75
3) Aston Villa – 12.00
4) Newcastle – 7.75
5) Chelsea – 6.00
It is not difficult to see why many Chelsea supporters felt their hopes realistically ended with the draws against Brentford and Ipswich, but they have rallied back from the brink to beat Fulham and Everton to give themselves a chance.
The Blues face three of the top five, as well as Manchester United, in their final four games.
Chelsea are the only top-half team left on the Forest calendar, while Newcastle have fairly tough assignments remaining but no reason to think they cannot be overcome.
Manchester City are looking good.
Which Champions League contender has done best against their remaining opponents?
Far more instructive might be to consider how the Champions League contenders did in the corresponding fixtures against their remaining opponents. This is a table based on those results so far this season:
1) Nottingham Forest v Brentford, Crystal Palace, Leicester, West Ham and Chelsea – P5 W4 D1 L0 F10 A2 Pts 13 PPG 2.6
2) Manchester City v Wolves, Southampton, Bournemouth and Fulham – P4 W3 D0 L1 F7 A5 Pts 9 PPG 2.25
3) Aston Villa v Fulham, Bournemouth, Spurs and Man Utd – P4 W1 D2 L1 F5 A6 Pts 5 PPG 1.25
4) Chelsea v Liverpool, Newcastle, Manchester United and Nottingham Forest – P4 W1 D2 L1 F5 A5 Pts 5 PPG 1.25
5) Newcastle v Brighton, Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton – P4 W1 D1 L2 F12 A3 Pts 4 PPG 1
Forest’s record in those games would see them through comfortably; the only points they have dropped this campaign against their final opponents were in a draw with Chelsea in October.
The Blues’ hopes are again damaged by another metric, with their only win against the five teams they have left to play coming at home to a very different Newcastle side in October.
Villa really might have messed up their chances, although it might come down to who exacts revenge better out of them and Newcastle.
Which Champions League contender is in the best form?
But neither Newcastle nor Villa should approach those run-ins with trepidation as their form is among the best in the entire Premier League, never mind this particular race.
Christ, Wolves.
Forest might have been fearing the worst after suffering back-to-back defeats but a trip to see Dr. Tottenham sorted them out. Manchester City have finally found themselves but Chelsea have not shown the level of consistency needed to actually punish any slips.
Which Champions League contender could maximise six-pointers?
There are two games left between the five Champions League contenders: Newcastle v Chelsea on May 19; and Nottingham Forest v Chelsea on May 25.
A mini table of Premier League results between those sides suggests two teams might be less equipped to make the most of those meetings than the other three:
1) Manchester City – P8 W5 D1 L2 F16 A6 Pts 16 PPG 2
2) Aston Villa – P8 W4 D0 L4 F12 A14 Pts 12 PPG 1.5
3) Newcastle – P7 W3 D1 L3 F13 A15 Pts 10 PPG 1.43
4) Chelsea – P6 W2 D1 L3 F8 A9 Pts 7 PPG 1.17
5) Nottingham Forest – P7 W2 D1 L4 F9 A14 Pts 7 PPG 1
Chelsea really might be out of it, and Forest might need to raise their game against them on the final day.
Which Champions League contenders still have to face any of the bottom three?
There are no easy games in the Premier League but also Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton are quite considerably worse than everyone else so any fixture list which still contains them can only be considered an advantage.
In games against Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Manchester City, Chelsea and Aston Villa, the bottom three have a combined record of P28 W1 D3 L24 F18 A70. Ipswich account for all those non-defeats, drawing twice with Villa while holding and beating Chelsea.
So Newcastle will not make the mistake of believing three points to be guaranteed against the Tractor Boys, but they will be overwhelming favourites at St James’ Park on April 26.
So neither Manchester City nor Nottingham Forest will make the mistake of adding three points to their tallies before facing Southampton (May 10) and Leicester (May 11) respectively, but those really ought to be decisive wins to factor in.
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Who will qualify for the Champions League?
The outlook is not great for Chelsea. They have ground to make up on Newcastle and Manchester City if they wish to consolidate their position, with Nottingham Forest level on points with a game in hand.
The Blues have the toughest run-in, are the worst of the contenders on form, did second-worst in the corresponding fixtures against their remaining opponents, and do not face any of the bottom three – although their struggles against Ipswich indicate that might not have mattered anyway.
They will also likely have the most games to contend with in other competitions due to their progress in the Conference League, and have not fared well in the qualification six-pointers, of which they have two remaining.
Manchester City should finish in the top five. Their game against Southampton is a distinct advantage, their remaining fixtures are relatively kind and their form is good. The dream of Pep Guardiola in the Conference League is over.
It is difficult to look past Newcastle’s form and current position, although their record against Brighton is sub-optimal. The hope would be that Arsenal are sufficiently distracted by the Champions League.
There might be a straight shootout between former European champions Forest and Villa. The latter are also in excellent form but the former have the best schedule on paper by far and a match with Leicester to come.
It could well come down to Villa’s inferior goal difference of +5, which is at least nine goals worse than any other contender. Perhaps Forest v Chelsea on the final day will be something of a decider and Callum Hudson-Odoi can unleash the most muted celebration ever seen after his 90th-minute winner.
Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Manchester City are your Champions League qualification race winners.
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