Champo Big Weekend: Cherries v Forest, Millwall, Pearson
With some big games coming up this weekend in the Championship, Benjamin Bloom is back again to preview all the action and detail everything you need to know, with odds from Betfair throughout.
MATCH TO WATCH – Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest
If you support a team challenging for promotion in the Championship, you almost want the automatic race to be as boring as possible. Everybody else wants the exact opposite, an open chase involving as many teams as possible and usually culminating in a tense final day showdown. As things stand right now it’s looking more likely to be the more boring route, which would very much please Bournemouth fans.
Bournemouth went big in the transfer window signing seven players, including five on a statement deadline day. That type of power play very much said to the rest of the challengers, we’re going for this and catch us if you can. Things have gone rather well since Bournemouth threw down the gauntlet and their three straight wins coupled with slips from both Blackburn and QPR put them back in the box seat.
If the down trend for QPR and Blackburn continues then the next set of challengers for automatic promotion would be Boro, Forest and Sheffield United. Let’s be very plain about this, any type of challenge from those or any club requires Bournemouth to start losing as even middling form could still see them hit the 80-point mark. What’s the best way to guarantee your rivals drop points? Well of course it’s to beat them yourself, and Nottingham Forest have the opportunity to do that on Friday night. A Forest win and the chasing pack are full of optimism going into Saturday’s games, a Bournemouth win and the pressure grows just to keep them in sight.
Cherries four in a row? Bournemouth to beat Forest 4/5 (Betfair)
TEAM TO WATCH – Millwall
You could never accuse Millwall of lacking in identity. I’d struggle to name a club that has a more obvious set of values, with it’s extremely proud working-class no-nonsense approach to life on and off the pitch. You could however be forgiven for not quite knowing where Millwall stand at the moment in terms of expectation.
What I mean is since coming up to the Championship, it’s been fairly obvious what we’ve been seeing from Millwall. The two eighth-place finishes were clear examples of the Lions doing what they do best, punching upwards to arguably overachieve with no care for reputation. 11th place last season represented a decent finish, in fact the drop off down to 21st in 2018/19 could be described as the only underperformance in recent seasons.
So where are we now? The first couple of seasons in the Championship were under club legend Neil Harris, since then it’s been Gary Rowett in the dugout. Rowett is a bit marmite when it comes to perception, for the longest time he was sympathetically seen as the guy who was wronged by Birmingham. That narrative was slightly undone when he became the guy who jumped ship from Derby to Stoke and wasted a boat load of their parachute cash on the way to the sack. Since then he’s done a good job in terms of league positions at Millwall, although some of their fans do find him slightly overcautious in his approach.
Millwall are currently 14th with a neutral goal difference having won 11, drawn 10 and lost 10; even if you hadn’t seen them kick a ball you’d conclude it all feels fairly middling. They are on a good run of 10 points in five games and at his best Rowett is capable of long streaks with few defeats. The remaining 15 games will do much to define where Millwall are and where they’re going, the top half seems to be the norm so perhaps a movement lower than their current 14th won’t be too well received.
Millwall’s winning streak to continue? Millwall to beat Blackburn 16/5 (Betfair)
MANAGER TO WATCH – Nigel Pearson
It’s deja vu all over again with Nigel Pearson at Bristol City. Cast your mind back to the end of last season and the pattern at Ashton Gate was as follows; Bristol City lose (often at home or to a late goal), Nigel Pearson furiously eviscerates his players in the post-match interview, more youngsters are promoted into the team, rinse and repeat.
It really feels like we’re right back there following last weekend’s defeat at Swansea. Bristol lost 3-1 and Pearson said: “You can’t give players desire. So we might have to make changes because people like me lose my job through results. What I’m not having is, I’m not having players who cop-out.” We’ve seen this movie before and Pearson’s approach could be described as any combination of brave, honest or foolhardy. The pro-Pearson argument would be that it’s all on the players and their sheer ineptitude and, from what he’s saying, a bad attitude is responsible for the poor performances. The anti-Pearson position would be that having been there a year, he may indeed have to take some responsibility for what his players do on the pitch himself.
I don’t know the answer and as ever the truth likely sits somewhere in the grey area in between bad players and bad managers. It’s a fascinating debate but pretty unilaterally when things have got to a ‘who is more to blame?’ scenario, then it’s a race to the bottom and not good ground to be on. Bristol City have a tricky task against in-form Middlesbrough this weekend and we could be seeing another furious post-match interview calling out his players from Pearson? Surely there can’t be too many of them remaining, no matter where the problems ultimately exist.
Both teams to score in Bristol City v Middlesbrough 20/23 (Betfair)
PLAYER TO WATCH – Lyle Taylor (Birmingham City)
There’s often one big news story that defines a player, rightly or wrongly that’s just the way it is. Football fans tend to give infinite time and effort towards learning every little detail about their own club’s players and there simply isn’t the time to do that for every club and player up and down the land. Take Lyle Taylor for example, I suspect that a simple game of name association would bring most fans straight to the story of him refusing to play for Charlton after the first Covid lockdown ended his contract before the season actually formally finished. That particular tale probably doesn’t need debating again but the upshot of it all was that Taylor did get the move away from Charlton to Nottingham Forest that his refusal to continue to play counted on.
It didn’t really go too well for Taylor at Forest. Barely a handful of games into the season and Sabri Lamouchi, the manager who signed him, was replaced by Chris Hughton. Season number one at the City Ground ended with four goals in 15 starts and this season there was yet another new manager in situ at Forest. The arrival of Steve Cooper in September and then striker Keinan Davis on loan from Aston Villa in January, spelt the end of days for Lyle Taylor at Nottingham Forest.
Where did he go? Well of course back to his boss at the time of the contract dispute at Charlton, Lee Bowyer. Bowyer is the latest manager at Birmingham trying to figure out how Birmingham can score without relying on warhorse Lukas Jutikiewicz and an infuriatingly erratic finisher in Scott Hogan. So far, Lyle Taylor is looking a good bet. He arrived on loan in the January window and registered three goals and an assist in his four starts for Blues. Sometimes it’s all about a player finding the right circumstances and surroundings and maybe the fit of Lyle Taylor and Birmingham could ultimately make him more than the Covid contract rebel he’s rightly or wrongly perceived as currently.
Lyle Taylor first goalscorer 11/2 (Betfair)
Odds correct at the time of publication. 18+ Please Gamble Responsibly. Visit begambleaware.org