Championship stat pack: Nervy Bournemouth, Blades opportunity, League One final day

Benjamin Bloom
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As we head into the penultimate weekend of Championship football, Benjamin Bloom has dived into the stats and looked into the promotion race, with odds from Betfair throughout.

 

FIRST PLACE – Stumbling Fulham
Fulham are somehow still not mathematically confirmed as Championship winners 2021/22, with the leaders matching their worst run of the season with their form over the past five games. The current run has seen the Cottagers pick up just four points and lose three of their last five. The only other time this season Fulham didn’t manage to win at least two games from a five-game sample was leading up to Christmas, when four straight draws were followed by a home defeat to Sheffield United.

To all intents and purposes Fulham are already the champions, it’s just one of those goal difference quirks that won’t allow us to sign it off well and truly. Bournemouth are nine points behind with three games to go, so at best can tie Fulham for points. Mitrovic, Wilson and co have however racked up a goal difference advantage of 30 which is clearly not going to be overturned. We’ll say one more point for Fulham or Bournemouth not winning properly confirms the title, but realistically we’re already there.

Over 2.5 goals in Fulham v Luton 13/20 (Betfair)

 

SECOND PLACE – Can Bournemouth be caught?
The riveting spectacle of the Championship second-place race is looking like going the distance. Bournemouth lead Huddersfield and Forest by three points, the Cherries and Forest have a game more to play and face each other in a brutal head to head next Tuesday. Many people are understandably making this a straight battle between Bournemouth and Forest but let’s deal with Huddersfield first. The Terriers can still finish second by scoring at least four points and then results going heavily their way, unlikely but possible nonetheless.

The ideal scenario for Bournemouth is a win this weekend against Blackburn coupled with Forest losing at home to Swansea. In this instance Bournemouth would go into the big head to head knowing that just a draw would secure promotion that night and even defeat would still see them go into the final day with a three-point lead. The ideal scenario for Forest is obviously the complete opposite. Were Forest to beat Swansea this weekend and Bournemouth to lose to Blackburn, Forest would already be ahead on goal difference going into the head to head. This would mean they could then be happy with a draw at Bournemouth and would lead going into the final day. What we do know following Tuesday night’s high drama, is the head to head game definitely will have something riding on it and if it wasn’t already a must-see, it now categorically is.

Nottingham Forest to beat Swansea 8/15 (Betfair)

 

PLAY-OFFS – Blades Friday night opportunity
The play-off door is still mathematically open for the teams as far down the table as 11th, but unless we have a ridiculous multiple team implosion it’s down to potentially three chasers in Middlesbrough, Blackburn and Millwall. Sheffield United in sixth play against QPR on Friday night knowing a win puts massive pressure on everyone below them. Given their goal difference Millwall would basically be out of it, Blackburn would need to beat second-placed Bournemouth and a draw would not be enough for Middlesbrough against Stoke. It would also give Luton something to think about as they go to Fulham on Monday knowing a point will possibly be enough to secure their play-off spot but also that a set of undesirable results could provoke a stressful-looking final day for the Hatters.

Sheffield United to beat QPR 17/20 (Betfair)

 

LEAGUE ONE PROMOTION – Two from three
Relegation has been confirmed in the Championship, Derby went first with Barnsley and Peterborough following last weekend. We can however have a quick glance down to League 1 and see who is likely to be replacing the teams dropping out of the Championship next season.

With League One a week ahead of the Championship it’s final day on Saturday and all 12 games kick off at 12.30pm, meaning that we’ll know who has made automatic promotion before the 3pm kick-offs. We know already that the top three will definitely be Wigan, Rotherham and MK Dons although in what order remains to be seen. MK Dons in third spot are the outsiders, they go to Plymouth who are in sixth place and desperately need points themselves to maintain a play-off spot. MK can’t lose and a draw would require Rotherham to be beaten by five goals in their game against Gillingham. That’s unlikely, but Gillingham are scrapping for their lives and need something from that game to avoid relegation. Leaders Wigan are absolutely falling over the line and still need a point to confirm promotion having not won any of their last five games. The Latics go to Shrewsbury knowing that only defeat there coupled with a win for MK Dons plus a seven-goal swing will deny them. Logic says Wigan and Rotherham will confirm automatic promotion on Saturday but pressure can quickly negate logic when final days are concerned.

Wigan to beat Shrewsbury 8/11 (Betfair)

 

Odds correct at the time of publication. 18+ Please Gamble Responsibly. Visit begambleaware.org