The Championship is back this Friday and Benjamin Bloom has dived into the points per game projections to see how the table could finish, with odds from Betfair throughout.
CHAMPIONSHIP STATPACK – Points Per Game Analysis
The Championship promotion race is about to conclude and as ever nobody is quite sure exactly how it’s going to play out. Fulham look pretty certain to finish first but the form of Nottingham Forest in fourth has everyone wondering if Bournemouth might not hold on to second spot.
I’ve done some points per game analysis and come up with some projections by extrapolating past form onto future events. For those people inexplicably triggered by this sort of thing it’s important to disclose that I am fully aware that the past doesn’t predict the future and thus all projections are merely illustrative and just a bit of fun.
6 GAME FORM
If we take each side’s points per game for the past six games and attribute it to all their remaining games the table ends like this.
1st – FULHAM: 93
2nd – BOURNEMOUTH: 85.83
3rd – FOREST: 85.67
4th – HUDDERSFIELD: 77.33
5th – LUTON: 71.67
6th – SHEFF UTD: 71.67
This projection has only Forest and Huddersfield switching places and Bournemouth ahead by a tiny 0.16 point margin.
8 GAME FORM
The same exercise using the past eight games
1st – FULHAM: 95
2nd – FOREST: 84.50
3rd – BOURNEMOUTH: 83.50
4th – HUDDERSFIELD: 79
5th – SHEFF UTD 72.50
6th – LUTON: 71.88
One big switch around in this one with Forest above Bournemouth by a whole point, Sheffield United also edge above Luton into fifth.
10 GAME FORM
You get the idea by now.
1st – FULHAM: 94.4
2nd – BOURNEMOUTH: 85.6
3rd – FOREST: 83.8
4th – HUDDERSFIELD: 79
5th – LUTON: 73.5
6th – SHEFF UTD: 72.5
Back they switch, on the ten game form projection it’s Bournemouth second Forest third with Huddersfield dropping to fourth.
Just to add full season context, I’ve averaged all three of the short term projections above with the full season and come out with this.
1st – FULHAM: 94.46
2nd – BOURNEMOUTH: 85.26
3rd – FOREST: 83.25
4th – HUDDERSFIELD: 78.19
5th – LUTON: 72.49
6th – SHEFF UTD: 72.40
Given this is the only projection I’ve done that factors in Bournemouth’s incredible start it’s no surprise they’re second and with a two point gap.
Again, it’s important to reiterate that this is a simplistic statistical exercise and no human emotion went into its outcome. The big takeaway in terms of automatic promotion is that only the eight game form table rolled out had Nottingham Forest overtaking Bournemouth, all the other projections have Bournemouth just doing enough to get over the line.
Obviously none of these projections take into account opponent difficulty or the very juicy head to head between Bournemouth and Forest on 3rd May. The big takeaway in terms of the play-offs is that, according to these numbers, the door is closed on the top six if the current direction of travel remains then those already there project to stay there.
The landscape will change greatly over the Easter weekend and if we’re back here on Tuesday perhaps the projections could say something slightly, or even totally different.
Odds correct at the time of publication. 18+ Please Gamble Responsibly. Visit begambleaware.org