Chelsea v Man City: One big game, five big questions

Manchester City’s trip to Chelsea is arguably the highlight of the New Year schedule. Are here the big tactical questions…

1) Will Chelsea’s deep block create a dull game?
One thing Frank Lampard has learnt from his old manager Jose Mourinho is how to approach big games. Throughout the last 18 months Chelsea have sat deep in these encounters, limiting space in the final third with a low block and rarely, if at all, engaging a press higher up the pitch.

Ever since a chastening 4-0 defeat to Manchester United in his first league game in charge Lampard has played conservatively, and since then he has won as many ‘Big Six’ matches as he has lost – and rarely is there more than a goal in it. That’s bad news for neutrals, especially given that Manchester City are prone to being lulled into tedious sideways possession this season, and given that both managers will be happy with a point.

Lampard will likely deploy a 4-2-3-1 with Mason Mount working hard to drop back alongside N’Golo Kante and Jorginho, a strong double axis that should successfully limit space for Kevin de Bruyne. Chelsea will allow Man City’s centre-backs to hold the ball as much as they want and spend long periods camped in their own half, occasionally engaging counter-attacks but generally satisfied with watching Ilkay Gundogan and Rodri calmly shift the ball from side to side.

If this game is to open up, if the lines are to be broken, then it will come down to individual head-to-heads and moments of inspiration.

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2) Or will Aguero’s return put an end to City’s stale possession?
Sergio Aguero could be the man for those moments. The Argentine has been struggling with knee and hamstring injuries this season, limiting him to just 70 minutes of Premier League football, but the 32-year-old is set to return to the starting line-up at Stamford Bridge. Perhaps his ruthlessness in the penalty area is all City need to shake themselves out of their slumber.

Man City have been alarmingly slow in 2020/21. They have the best defence in the division but have scored fewer goals than West Ham. Fatigue and a diminishing press, not to mention less time than usual on the training field, has clearly taken its toll on City and, in fact, the consequent sluggishness may be a strategic ploy by Guardiola to adapt to the new normal.

Guardiola is obsessed with control, and since pandemic football has created new variables and fresh chaos the City manager may have deliberately decided to slow things right down; to go all-in on ball retention to rein in the madness.

Aguero’s return could be the final piece of the puzzle; the player who turns stale possession into narrow victories that allow City to grind their way up the table as their rivals stutter through the gruelling winter months. After all, they are second in the table for shots per 90 (13.66) and have only marginally fewer touches in the opposition area per 90 (22.28) than league leaders Liverpool.

3) Can Sterling take advantage of issues around James?
If City are to prevent this game from being a tedious 0-0 and provide chances for Aguero then they ought to target Reece James, the weak link in the Chelsea line-up. James’s defensive contributions are notably weaker than those of his fellow defenders, with minor positional errors frequently allowing opponents to get in behind.

Gabriel Martinelli and Kieran Tierney occasionally overwhelmed him in Arsenal’s 3-1 win, while Pedro Neto and Daniel Podence were equally effective on that side in Wolves’ 2-1 victory. James does not receive adequate support from Christian Pulisic, Kai Havertz, or Timo Werner on that wing –and he will not be looking forward to facing Raheem Sterling on Sunday.

Sterling has one goal and two assists in his last three Man City matches, representing a major upturn in form following a difficult start to the 2020/21 season. If De Bruyne comes out to the left to help him, and with Joao Cancelo overlapping, Chelsea could lose the game on this flank.

4) Do Chelsea have a plan for Cancelo?
Although City have struggled to create clear-cut chances or progress the ball purposefully into the final third this season, instead getting hypnotised by the static possession from Rodri and Gundogan, there is one player whose interesting new role can push the visitors through the Chelsea blockade.

Cancelo spends a lot of his time played as an inverted left-back, moving infield to become an auxiliary central midfielder when City are in possession and making as many under-lapping runs as over-lapping ones. His unusual positioning, coupled with his excellent acceleration on the ball, presents a difficult conundrum for opposition defences and could provide City with the impetus to cut through Chelsea.

It is noteworthy that Cancelo ranks fifth among all Premier League players for ‘smart passes’ per 90 and ‘deep completions’ per 90, according to WyScout. They describe a ‘smart pass’ as a ‘creative and penetrative pass that attempts to break the opposition’s defensive lines to gain a significant advantage’, while a ‘deep completion’ is a non-cross passes targeting the zone within 20 metres of the opposition penalty area.

In other words, he is a surprisingly creative player whose unusual position on the pitch could confuse the hosts.

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5) How can Lampard get his forwards firing?
It is harder to predict quite how Chelsea will break City down. Lampard’s attacking lines remain confused and improvised, his attackers attempting to problem-solve in the moment, giving them no discernible identity. That issue is compounded by the fact Lampard, largely because of injuries, is yet to settle on his best 11 while many of the new faces at the club struggle to settle.

Werner and Kai Havertz are both being played out of position, the former wider than he likes to operate and the latter deeper than he was deployed at Bayer Leverkusen. Hakim Ziyech’s return from injury should help (he is such a high-output playmaker his individualism lifts Chelsea despite the lack of a wider structure), but Christian Pulisic is increasingly running into a wall as opponents work out his game.

Considering John Stones is back in form and City’s back line possesses plenty of pace, Chelsea’s best route to victory might be starting Olivier Giroud. Simple crosses onto his head can expose an aerial weakness in the City defence.

Alex Keble