Chelsea vs FC Copenhagen prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
Chelsea still have a job to do when they host FC Copenhagen in the Europa Conference League on Thursday, looking to preserve a 2-1 first-leg lead.
A controlled performance (and how much is that control frustrating Chelsea fans?) saw the Blues take a 2-0 lead despite fashioning just five chances across 90 minutes, though their hosts were equally limited.
Things took a turn for the worse in the 79th minute when Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall adopted the bold strategy of marking Marc Cucurella as opposed to a Copenhagen player.
The Spaniard, who appeared stuck in the glued-on 18-yard line, made no effort to go with either of the runners at the back post and proceeded to throw his hands up at everyone else.
The goal adds some jeopardy as Chelsea put their perfect Conference League record on the line, but it must be said Enzo Maresca’s side haven’t faced a side as good as Copenhagen.
The Danish outfit enjoyed success against Man Utd (4-3), Bayern Munich (0-0), Man City (0-0), and Galatasaray (1-0) among others in recent seasons, but their best results have come on home soil.
Overturning a 2-1 deficit at Stamford Bridge won’t be easy but Jacob Neestrup’s side won’t shy away from the challenge.
Chelsea team news
Marc Guiu, Noni Madueke and Nicolas Jackson are ruled out due to hamstring complaints, while Mykhaylo Mudryk is suspended.
Reece James played a starring role in midfield last week, but illness may keep him out of this one, so we may see a more familiar pairing of Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo.
Tyrique George also impressed with an assist for Chelsea’s second so should get the nod to continue alongside Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Cole Palmer as the supporting cast.
At 17 years and 137 days old, Shumaira Mheuka set a new record as the youngest Chelsea player to start a European match.
Although he did an admirable job, we think Maresca may opt for Neto to put this tie to bed.
Chelsea expected line-up
Sanchez – Chalobah, Adarabioyo, Badiashile, Cucurella – Caicedo, Fernandez – George, Palmer, Dewsbury-Hall – Neto
FC Copenhagen team news
Marcos Lopez, who replaced Birger Meling at left-back in the 70th minute last week to offer a different option going forward, is suspended due to the yellow card he picked up last week.
We think Meling will provide cover in an unchanged back five to give the visitors a solid base to counter from.
Sweden winger Viktor Claesson and tricky Tunisian Elias Achouri will retain their roles out wide, though neither were particularly effective in the first leg.
Elias Achouri was creator-in-chief with 14 assists in 29 Superaliga appearances last season, though an injury-hit season has seen that number reduced to one.
He’ll do his best to support Amin Chiakha, as the man with four Europa Conference League ploughs a lonely furrow up top.
FC Copenhagen expected line-up
Ramaj – Gocholeishvili, Pereria, Dijks, Hatzidiakos, Meling – Claesson, Clem, Froholdt, Achouri – Chiakha
Chelsea vs FC Copenhagen: How to watch and listen
You can watch on TNT Sports 4 and Discovery+ at the early kick-off time of 1745 GMT. There’s also live commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live Sport.
Chelsea vs FC Copenhagen stats:
Chelsea are unbeaten in Champions League meetings with Copenhagen, winning twice and drawing once.
They can also boast a good run of home form in European fixtures, winning 14 and drawing two of their previous 18.
Despite losing the first leg, it’s worth noting Copenhagen are knockout tie specialists. They’ve progressed from 14 of their last 16 two-legged European ties.
On the other hand, they have a poor record against English teams, winning two of 18 meetings in UEFA competition.
The Blues have enjoyed much more success in the competition, recently claiming their second title in the 2021/21 season.
Didier Drogba is Chelsea’s all-time top scorer in the UCL with 36 goals, compared to Dame N’Doye with 10 for Copenhagen. Both men have retired.
Enzo Maresca (Chelsea) quotes
On what he expects from Copenhagen on Thursday:
“I was surprised, as I said last week because I watched many games, they were off the ball always defending with a line of four and then against us, they were in a line of five. Even in their game two days ago, they were again a line of four. The reason why we were a little bit surprised was because of that, but then we tried to adapt.
“Tomorrow, to be honest, I do not know if they are going to be in one way or another way. We will see tomorrow.”
On balancing the Europa League and Sunday’s game with Arsenal:
“The priority is tomorrow. For us, the priority is tomorrow because it is the next one and the most important one. After tomorrow, we will start to think about Arsenal, but for sure we will be focused on tomorrow’s game.”
On the fitness and availability of players:
“Cole, Reece [James] and Christo [Nkunku] today has been the first session. Yesterday they were not here and two days ago they had a rest. The reason why is because all of them had some problems but today, they were all back and they were all better.
“The only one that is still injured is Malo Gusto, the only new one. Noni [Madueke], Nicolas [Jackson] and Marc Guiu are still out, but the rest they can play.
“Romeo is much better. He’s not in the Conference League squad unfortunately. For him, he’s more or less similar to Reece James in terms of the main target for us is to help him to be fit until the end and play as many games as he can.”
Jacob Neestrup (FC Copenhagen) quotes
On Copenhagen’s chances of winning the tie:
“The chance is there, but it will be difficult to win here.
“We will play 100% for the win. Among other things, it requires us to be efficient, because we cannot expect to get too many chances.”
On playing five at the back again:
“In Parken we were a little deeper in the first half than we would have liked, but our play on the ball was the same, regardless of whether we play with four or five in the back line.
“There were several reasons why we chose to play with five in Parken, and one of them was to give Kevin Diks a free role, which brought greater flexibility. That can be a plus in these games.
“Our offensive structure can take many forms and that created some good situations in the first leg, which we just have to exploit better tomorrow.”
On his recent visit to Stamford Bridge in preparation:
“As always, we’ve studied them thoroughly, and you always get something extra when you see them live. No matter how they line up tomorrow, there’s a difficult task ahead, but as I said, we’ll play our chance.
“Even if it’s just about getting a draw, both for our own sake and the fans’ sake, but also for the sake of Danish football in relation to the European rankings.”
Chelsea vs FC Copenhagen referee stats:
Radu Petrescu will be the man with the whistle on Thursday as he takes charge of a European fixture for the sixth time this season.
The Romanian had the pleasure of officiating Man City’s wild 3-3 draw with Feyenoord in November, as well as Aston Villa’s historic 1-0 against Bayern Munich.
Typically refereeing in his native Romania, Petrescu has overseen some high-profile UEFA fixtures, but has yet to break into the ranks of international tournament referees.
It’s been a couple of seasons since he’s given someone their marching orders at this level, though he did award Feyenoord a penalty at the Etihad.
His average of 22.33 fouls whistled per game is within the normal range, but 5.67 cards per 90 minutes in the Champions League is on the high side.
Chelsea vs FC Copenhagen prediction:
Winning at Stamford Bridge will be a tall order and it’s likely the visitors will expose themselves too much while trying to do so.
The first leg was hardly a classic, but if Maresca’s side can control Copenhagen in their own backyard, we fancy they can do the same on Thursday.
The Danes have a fantastic record of scoring in European fixtures and they always seem to find a way to progress from two-legged ties. Despite that, we think the Premier League side can win and keep a clean sheet to boot.
Another bet that catches our eye comes from the corners market. The line is currently set at 9.5, which may prove to be high.
Just one corner was taken in the first leg. Although that may seem unusual, closer inspection revealed this is something of a trend in Copenhagen games.
Their fixtures have regularly produced under 5.5 corners this season and they rarely trouble 10 or more.
