Dour derby on the cards but Man Utd can copy Spurs to sink City

Ralf Rangnick has yet to face a Big Six side as Man Utd boss but the interim manager has been given a blueprint to win his first derby…

As Liverpool continue to move up through the gears there is a nagging feeling that Manchester City might just let the Premier League title slip. Some of the life has drained out of their recent performances and some of the issues that undermined them during a difficult 18 months between the start of 2019 and the end of 2020 (winning 102 points from 50 league games) have re-emerged.

For starters their lack of a striker is clearly a problem, because without someone making the right runs and movements in the penalty area, City’s attacking patterns become slow and predictable, taking place harmlessly in front of the opposition defence.

And while Man City’s defence is greatly improved since those tougher days – thanks mostly to Rodri’s emergence as a world-beating no.6 – Pep Guardiola’s team can lack an urgency and verticality in the final third. Replacing more direct players for the likes of Jack Grealish, and doubling down on inverted full-backs instead of overlapping ones, can lead to Man City sleepwalking into passive and easily-readable football.

That might seem a harsh criticism of the league leaders but each of their one-goal wins against Wolves, West Ham, Aston Villa, Brentford, Arsenal and Everton were fortunate. On another day all six could have been draws. In a parallel universe Guardiola is under a bit of pressure.

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But what one person describes as luck another declares the sign of champions, and should City win all three points in the Manchester derby on Sunday any thoughts of a mini-wobble will be put to bed. Fortunately for the visitors, and for any neutrals hoping for a title race, Tottenham Hotspur have provided Ralf Rangnick with a tactical model he can copy almost exactly.

Antonio Conte focused on a deep and narrow defensive blockade that looked to cram the half-spaces with Spurs players, thus closing down the areas in which Man City most like to attack. His team sat off the centre-backs altogether and conceded the flanks, forcing Guardiola’s side into tame passes into the wings and, at best, crosses into a packed penalty area which the Spurs centre-backs could easily deal with.

From here, the idea was to counter-attack at breakneck speed by utilising the gaps that form around Rodri, who cannot cover the no.10 space all on his own. Harry Kane repeatedly dropped into these pockets and played a quick pass in behind City’s high defensive line, looking for the runs of Heung-Min Son and Dejan Kulusevski.

Rangnick is yet to play a ‘Big Six’ team as Manchester United manager so we cannot say with confidence how he will approach the fixture. But the best guess is copying what Conte did, given that the gegenpressing we were promised has not materialised; United’s team presses and individual pressure stats are unchanged since his appointment.

It is likely, then, that Rangnick will continue playing to his squad’s strengths rather than look to instil his own tactical philosophy, a concession that points to installing Solskjaer’s tried-and-tested methods in this fixture (Man Utd held 35% possession in the 2-0 win at the Etihad last season).

United can complete the first half of the Spurs model, then, albeit with a midfield that may prove less effective at shutting down the half-spaces. As for the counter-attacking part, Bruno Fernandes will be expected to outmanoeuvre Rodri and launch those luxurious passes in behind for Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford, who should be capable of making runs on the inside of the City full-backs with success. As long as Rangnick picks a 4-2-3-1, with Fernandes making it a 4-4-2 alongside Cristiano Ronaldo when City have the ball, the visitors can lure Man City into a slower tempo before breaking just as Spurs did.

On the other hand, Fred and Scott McTominay may find themselves overworked by Bernardo Silva and Kevin De Bruyne, pulled out of position to create room in those half-spaces for Joao Cancelo. What’s more, right-back is a bit of a problem area for Rangnick and the battle here with Cancelo and Raheem Sterling is an obvious target for Guardiola’s side. United, after all, rarely look cohesive for a full 90 minutes under the interim manager and City are the very best at pouncing on the slightest mistake.

Then of course there’s the Ronaldo problem. At this point in his career he could hardly be further away from Kane, which may significantly hamper United’s capacity to break quickly when a City attack breaks down.

Nevertheless the defining feature of recent Man City performances has been a lack of speed in their build-up play. It took 60 minutes to score against Peterborough in midweek and 82 minutes against Everton last Saturday, while United have only concede 14 goals in 17 games under Rangnick. In a tense derby, a 0-0 is very much on the cards.