How every Premier League team would have ranked in Haaland’s points-based system

Date published: Sunday 2nd October 2022 1:19 - Will Ford

Alfie Haaland revealed in the documentary ‘Haaland: The Big Decision’ that he and his son Erling used a points-based system to decide which club to join from Borussia Dortmund.

It’s not clear exactly what all the criteria were, but five were mentioned. Only seven clubs made the shortlist but we thought it might be fun to rank every Premier League team using the Haaland system.

Now, it sounds like they scored the contenders out of ten but we’ve done it slightly differently, giving one point to the lowest scorer and 20 to the highest, with each club ending with a score out of 100. Got it? Great. Here we go…

 

History
‘History’ means trophies, right? But obviously there are great trophies, good trophies, bad trophies and the Club World Cup. So we’ve created our own points-based system within Haaland’s points-based system to work out just how much ‘history’ each club has.

We’re already having fun.

Champions League/European Cup = 10 points
Premier League/First Division = 8 points
FA Cup = 5 points
Europa League/UEFA Cup/Cup Winners’ Cup = 4 points
League Cup = 3 points
Football League War Cup = 3 points
Full Members’ Cup = 2 points

4= points) Bournemouth: 0 points

4=) Brentford: 0 points

4=) Fulham: 0 points

4=) Brighton: 0 points

5) Crystal Palace: 2 points (Full Members’ Cup x1)

6) Southampton: 5 points (FA Cup x1)

7) West Ham: 19 points (FA Cup x3; Cup Winners’ Cup x1)

8) Leicester: 21 points (Premier League x1; FA Cup x1; League Cup x3)

9) Leeds: 38 points (First Division x3; FA Cup x1; League Cup x1)

10) Nottingham Forest: 54 points (European Cup x2; First Division x1; FA Cup x2 League Cup x4); Full Members’ Cup x2)

11) Wolves: 59 points (First Division x3; FA Cup x4; League Cup x2; War Cup x1;)

12) Newcastle: 62 points (First Division x4; FA Cup x6)

13) Tottenham: 84 points (First Division x2; FA Cup x8; UEFA Cup/Cup Winners’ Cup x3; League Cup x4)

14) Manchester City: 118 points (Champions League x0; Premier League x8; FA Cup x6; League Cup x8)

15) Everton: 119 points (First Division x9; FA Cup x5; Cup Winners’ Cup x1)

16) Aston Villa: 127 points (European Cup x1; First Division x7; FA Cup x7; League Cup x5; War Cup x1)

17) Chelsea: 135 points (Champions League x2; Premier League/First Division x6; FA Cup x8; Europa League x2; League Cup x5; Full Members’ Cup x2)

18) Arsenal: 184 points (Premier League/First Division x13; FA Cup x14; Cup Winners’ Cup x1; League Cup x2)

19) Manchester United: 273 points Champions League/European Cup x3; Premier League/First Division x20; FA Cup x12; Europa League/Cup Winners’ Cup x2; League Cup x5)

20 points) Liverpool: 279 points (Champions League/European Cup x6; Premier League/First Division x19; FA Cup x8; League Cup x9)

 

Stadium capacity
Easy one this: the bigger the better…

1 point) Bournemouth (Vitality Stadium): 11,307

2) Brentford (Brentford Community Stadium): 17,250

3) Fulham – (Craven Cottage): 22,384

4) Crystal Palace (Selhurst Park): 25,486

5) Nottingham Forest (The City Ground): 30,332

6) Wolves (Molineux): 31,750

7) Brighton (The Amex): 31,780

8) Leicester (King Power): 32,262

9) Southampton (St Mary’s): 32,384

10) Leeds (Elland Road): 37,608

11) Everton (Goodison Park): 39,414

12) Chelsea (Stamford Bridge): 40,343

13) Aston Villa (Villa Park): 42,657

14) Newcastle (St James’ Park): 52,305

15) Liverpool (Anfield): 53,394

16) Manchester City (Etihad): 53,400

17) West Ham (London Stadium):  60,000

18) Arsenal (Emirates): 60,704

19) Tottenham (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium): 62,850

20 points) Manchester United (Old Trafford): 74,310

 

Playing style
It’s impossible to quantify playing style but we’re guessing that means chances created in Haaland speak so that’s how we’ve ranked them.

We’ve used chances created per 90 from last season for those who were in the Premier League and this season’s data for the newly-promoted sides, as Fulham would have won 18 points in this round had we used their stats from the Championship last season.

 

1 point) Bournemouth: 4.86

2) Nottingham Forest: 6.86

3) Wolves: 7.45

4) Crystal Palace: 7.55

5) Newcastle: 7.82

6) Leicester: 7.95

7) Fulham: 8.00

8) Brentford: 8.03

9) Everton: 8.18

10) West Ham: 8.32

11) Leeds: 9.03

12) Brighton: 9.04

13) Southampton: 9.11

14) Aston Villa: 9.16

15) Tottenham: 9.97

16) Manchester United: 10.4

17) Arsenal: 11.2

18) Chelsea: 11.3

19) Liverpool: 13.3

20 points) Manchester City: 13.8

 

Need for a No.9
Alfie Haaland described Manchester City’s need for a No.9 as “10 out of 10”, which is true in the sense that they didn’t really have one, but they did also cruise to the Premier League title last term.

Anyway, we will bow to Alfie’s wisdom, so we’re going to base this on the percentage of the team’s goals scored by the player who played as the No.9 (or close to it) most frequently. This time we have used the Championship data for the newly-promoted teams.

 

3 points) Fulham: Aleksandar Mitrovic – 42.2%

4) Manchester United: Cristiano Ronaldo – 32.1%

5) Tottenham: Harry Kane – 26.9%

6=) Brentford: Ivan Toney – 26.0%

6=) Bournemouth: Dominic Solanke – 26.0%

7) Leicester: Jamie Vardy – 24.2%

8) Nottingham Forest: Brennan Johnson – 22.5%

9) Aston Villa: Ollie Watkins – 22.0%

10) Brighton: Neal Maupay – 20.0%

11) Newcastle: Callum Wilson – 19.5%

12) West Ham: Michail Antonio – 17.2%

13=) Southampton: Che Adams – 17.1%

13=) Wolves: Raul Jimenez – 17.1%

14) Liverpool: Sadio Mane – 17.0%

15) Leeds: Rodrigo – 14.2%

16) Manchester City: Raheem Sterling – 13.5%

17) Crystal Palace: Odsonne Edouard – 12.0%

18) Everton: Dominic Calvert-Lewin – 11.9%

19) Chelsea: Romelu Lukaku – 10.7%

20 points) Arsenal: Alexandre Lacazette – 6.7%

Graphic: Expected goals vs Goals Premier League

 

Manager
Again difficult to quantify. Trophies doesn’t really work as the majority have won nothing. We’ve gone for Premier League position last season compared to squad value. So if you have the fifth-most expensive squad and finished fifth you are a par manager, with the best manager the one with the greatest positive difference between their league position and squad value.

For the teams in the Premier League last season we’ve taken the squad value from June when Haaland made his decision, but data from September for the newly-promoted teams, as well as their current league positions, because Forest skewed the stats somewhat having increased their squad value by more than 500 per cent in those three months.

It’s far from perfect as some of the managers weren’t in charge for the whole season, or indeed any of it, obviously Pep Guardiola is limited by there being no higher position than first and Scott Parker absolutely should not be credited with Bournemouth’s current position. Actually, this is a terrible ranking system. Anyway…

 

9= points) Everton (Frank Lampard): 9th (£380.5m); 16th

9=) Nottingham Forest (Steve Cooper): 12th (£268.3m); 19th

10) Aston Villa (Steven Gerrard): 8th (417.9m); 14th

11) Leeds (Jesse Marsch): 13th (£264.7m); 17th

12) Manchester United (Erik ten Hag): 4th (£696.8m); 6th

13) Leicester (Brendan Rodgers): 7th (£463.3m); 8th

14=) Chelsea (Thomas Tuchel): 3rd (£782.5m); 3rd

14=) Wolves (Bruno Lage): Squad value – 10th (£327.2m); PL finish – 10th

14=) Liverpool (Jurgen Klopp): 2nd (£834.7m); 2nd

14=) Manchester City (Pep Guardiola): 1st (£863.4m); 1st

15=) Southampton (Ralph Hasenhuttl): 16th (£224.3m); 15th

15=) Arsenal (Mikel Arteta): 6th (£468.9m); 5th

15=) Tottenham (Mauricio Pochettino): 5th (£535.7m); 4th

16) Newcastle (Eddie Howe): 14th (£261.36m); 11th

17=) Brentford (Thomas Frank): 17th (£213.21); 13th

17=) West Ham (David Moyes): 11th (314.5m); 7th

18=) Brighton (Graham Potter): 15th (£249.7m); 9th

18=) Crystal Palace (Patrick Vieira): 18th (£212.2m); 12th

19) Bournemouth (Scott Parker): 20th (£158.31m); 12th

20 points) Fulham (Marco Silva): 19th (£209.1m); 6th

 

The final scores
Here we go then. We’ve added up the scores from the five criteria. Just to confuse you we’ve turned the ranking around, putting Bournemouth as the least likely club to attract Haaland in 20th. We’re sorry to say you got your calculations wrong, Haalands. Erling would have been top of the league right now had he chosen correctly, not languishing in second.

 

20th) Bournemouth: 4+1+1+6+19=31

19th) Nottingham Forest: 10+5+2+8+9=34

18th) Brentford: 4+2+8+6+17=37

17th) Fulham: 4+4+7+3+20=38

16th) Leicester: 8+8+6+7+13=42

15th) Wolves: 11+6+3+13+14=47

14th) Crystal Palace: 5+4+4+17+18=48

13th) Brighton: 4+7+12+10+18=51

12th) Leeds: 9+10+11+15+11=56

11th) Southampton: 6+9+13+13+15=56

10th) Newcastle: 12+14+5+11+16=58

9th) Aston Villa: 16+13+14+9+10=62

8th) Everton: 15+11+9+18+9=62

7th) West Ham: 7+17+10+12+17=63

6th) Manchester United: 19+20+16+4+12=71

5th) Tottenham: 13+19+15+5+15=77

4th) Chelsea: 17+12+18+19+14=80

3rd) Manchester City: 14+16+20+16+14=80

2nd)Liverpool: 20+15+19+14+14=82

1st) Arsenal: 18+18+17+20+15=88

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