All the reasons why Conte’s Spurs should blow away Man Utd…
Antonio Conte would dearly love to dump Man Utd deeper in the mire. Alex Keble reckons Tottenham are set up to do just that…
There is almost no chance now that Ralf Rangnick will remain Manchester United manager beyond the end of the season, and with even his ‘consultancy’ role likely to be diminished it is hard to imagine the team will start looking more cohesive any time soon. A toxic mix of variables has left a squad of egos working separately, apparently failing to follow tactical instructions and increasingly looking error-prone. The 4-1 defeat to Manchester City was the lowest point of Rangnick’s brief tenure but United will likely sink lower in the months ahead.
Tottenham Hotspur can take them to new depths on Saturday. A win for Antonio Conte’s side could see United slip to seventh and all-but end their pursuit of Champions League football next season; a colossal failure for a club of their size and resources, but hardly a surprise. There is no discernible identity at the moment, so much so that – with Man City the first ‘Big Six’ club Rangnick has faced – we don’t even know for sure how United will approach Saturday’s game.
Most likely, he will sit his team a little deeper, deploying (roughly) the Ole Gunnar Solskjaer method in ‘Big Six’ clashes. This is partly because his players are simply incapable or unwilling to enact a hard press, meaning any attempts at adventurousness makes them extremely vulnerable in the transition, partly because the team have so many mistakes in them right now they are best suited to a more defensive starting position, and partly because Tottenham’s own speed on the break necessitates caution.
Conte, too, will not exactly tell his players to hound the ball down, giving this match an unusual flavour for a high-stakes Premier League match in 2022: two teams sparring from a distance, unwilling to commit too many bodies forward and not particularly wanting possession. However, unlike a classic Benitez-Mourinho war of attrition, these shapes are likely to breed passivity and flat-footedness, creating an open match in which Spurs hold a distinct advantage.
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Conte’s team are better at attacking transitions than United, and are getting particularly good at artificial ones; the moments when the opposition is drawn forward by Spurs’ passing out from the back, only for a switch to flick and Conte’s side to sweep through as if on the counter-attack. There is a high likelihood of success at Old Trafford because Man Utd look particularly weak in central midfield, where Fred and Scott McTominay will be overwhelmed.
Harry Kane is in top form and his capacity to drop off the front line, into the spaces that inevitably open up around the rash and easily-split McFred partnership, may define this contest. Kane will be helped by Dejan Kulusevski’s lurking presence in the no.10 space, as well as by Matt Doherty as he dips infield like Joao Cancelo – a new and surprising tactic we saw Conte deploy in the 5-0 win over Everton.
If that wasn’t reason enough to assume Tottenham will win, consider how United’s lack of pressing from the front will give Spurs’ defenders all the time they want on the ball. The distribution of Eric Dier in particular has been crucial under Conte, producing raking long passes into the advancing wing-backs, both of whom will anticipate finding plenty of space. After all, Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Alex Telles were hopelessly overworked against Man City, who doubled up on the flanks to take advantage of the fact Rangnick’s full-backs receive little support from the wingers.
If Man Utd are to get anything out of this match it will be via longer passes down the wings for Jadon Sancho and Anthony Elanga to chase, a direct and Germanic method that worked well against Southampton in a recent 1-1 draw. This is the closest we have come to a distinct style under Rangnick, and while Spurs will have a deeper line of engagement than Saints there is still a vulnerability here. With the Tottenham wing-backs pushing on, Sancho and Elanga can find joy.
It should also be noted that Rafael Varane and Cristiano Ronaldo, both absent for the City defeat, are back for Saturday’s game. Varane’s composure seems to calm Wan-Bissaka and Harry Maguire, which will be vital in stopping Heung-Min Son from finding success in the final third. Ronaldo, meanwhile, is not necessarily helpful to the cause.
Ultimately, there is an essential mismatch in the two teams’ formations that makes it hard to look beyond Tottenham winning this game. Conte’s 3-4-2-1 gives him a four-on-two in central midfield (Bruno Fernandes will sit in the front line when United don’t have the ball) which, coupled with the verticality and intensity the Italian demands, could blow the hosts away.
Even on the most basic level, the form guide gives Tottenham a significant psychological advantage. Things are going to get worse for Man Utd before they get better.