Ranking Champions League favourites after last-16 draw: Aston Villa above Arsenal

Will Ford
Salah Mbappe Yamal champions league
Kylian Mbappe, Mohamed Salah and Lamine Yamal are set to star in the Champions League knockouts

We’ve got just 29 of 189 Champions League games to go and now know which teams will face each other in the last-16 clashes and each side’s possible opponents on the way to the final in Munich on May 31. It’s all very exciting.

All three Premier League teams are on the same side of the draw, which isn’t much fun, along with Real Madrid, which is also a bit of a downer, which is why we haven’t given two of them (we all know which two) much hope of winning the whole damn thing.

We’ve ranked all 16 remaining sides by their chance of winning the Champions League, from the no-hopers to Real Madrid, obviously.

 

16) Feyenoord
Brian Priske likely felt a bit hard done by having led Feyenoord into the Champions League play-offs, beating Benfica and Bayern Munich en route, only to be shown the door two days before their knockout clash with AC Milan. It worked out for them though.

Interim boss Pascal Bosschaart oversaw a 1-0 win at home before a 1-1 draw in the San Siro earned them a last-16 clash against Inter, who would be favourites against the Dutch side even if Arne Slot was still there. But it will be new manager Robin van Persie, who leaves Heerenveen after 26 games and nine wins in charge, the sum total of his senior coaching experience.

 

15) Club Brugge
Beating Atalanta in both legs was no mean feat having squeezed into the play-offs and the Belgian side will be reasonably confident of progressing to the quarter-finals having been drawn against an Aston Villa side they already beat in the group phase. But Brugge would surely come a cropper vs Liverpool or PSG if they make it that far, which would be an extraordinary achievement in itself.

 

14) PSV Eindhoven
They were outstanding in the second leg against Juventus as Noa Lang ran riot and Ivan Perisic rolled back the years to score a truly wonderful goal for Peter Bosz’s impressive side.

They undoubtedly have what it takes to give Arsenal a scare, particularly at home having drawn with Mikel Arteta’s side at the Philips Stadium last campaign and beaten them the season before, but if they upset the apple cart to get past the Gunners they’re set for a date with one of the Madrid sides.

 

13) Benfica
They were 3-1 and 4-2 up against Barcelona in the group phase before Hansi Flick’s side stormed back to win 5-4, which they should try to see as a positive given – as Barca sporting director Deco admitted – the La Liga side really “suffered” for much of that game.

If they couldn’t keep it up for a full 90 minutes there will be real doubts across two legs though, and we’re struggling to imagine them keeping Lamine Yamal, Raphinha and the lads quiet for such a stretch.

 

12) Lille
They’re on the right side of the draw and have been handed a lovely last-16 tie against the 11th-best side in the Bundesliga. A likely quarter-final against Barcelona is less favourable.

 

11) Arsenal
If there is a black mark over Mikel Arteta’s name since taking over at Arsenal – other than winning sod all since his first season – it’s his record in European knockout ties. He has only taken Arsenal past the first knockout round in two of four seasons: 2020/21, when Villarreal dumped them out of the Europa semis; and last campaign when they edged past Porto on penalties.

The controversial draw with Bayern in the quarter-final before limping out in Munich means it’s two wins in eight European knockout home legs under Arteta. With an injury crisis we can’t see that record improving much if at all this season.

 

10) Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund do at least have Champions League experience on their side. They eased past Sporting in the play-offs having only just missed out on the automatic spots and while it must feel like it was a lot longer ago, it’s been just over eight months since they lost in the final to Real Madrid.

They should have just about enough know-how to counteract how God-awful they’ve been this season to at least get past Lille.

 

9) Aston Villa
They’re unlikely to be as bad as they were in the group phase against Club Brugge, plus the added quality and Champions League experience of Marcus Rashford and Marco Asencio will hold them in good stead, with those very same two traits giving any side coached by Unai Emery a better chance of going all the way than one coached by the guy who replaced him at Arsenal.

READ MORE: Liverpool knocked off the top of Premier League mood rankings

 

8) Paris Saint-Germain
We felt more sorry for Brest than impressed by PSG after the state-backed French side spanked their compatriot minnows 10-0 in the play-offs, but the Ligue 1 giants are a far more likeable and serious outfit having got rid of the majority of their big-name players to put faith in some hugely talented young players.

They’ve drawn Liverpool, though, which is a p*sser.

 

7) Bayern Munich
Would never have imagined Vincent Kompany’s could be this high in the ranking after the play-off with Celtic, who gave as good as they got for most of those two games, but they’re in the better half of the draw and will fancy their chances of going deep if they can get one over their bogey team in the last 16. They really won’t have wanted Leverkusen.

 

6) Inter
The only remaining Serie A representative after Milan, Juve and Atalanta were all dumped out in the play-offs, and they’ve got the experience of coming close under Simone Inzaghi having lost the 2023 final to Manchester City.

 

5) Atletico Madrid
It doesn’t matter how long it’s been since Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid did anything of note in the Champions League (they’ve not made it past the quarter-final in seven seasons), we will continue to fully expect Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid to bloody noses and go deep in each and every campaign.

They do look more of a threat than they have done for a while though, sitting just one point behind both Barcelona and Real Madrid in La Liga having cruised through the Champions League group stage.

 

4) Bayer Leverkusen
Xabi Alonso’s side are unbeaten against Bayern in their last six games, winning three of them, and were very unfortunate not to make it four last weekend after battering their rivals in the Bundesliga but failing to find a way through as Bayern clung to their eight-point lead at the top of the table.

 

3) Barcelona
They can’t be thrilled at Real Madrid winning the Champions League five times since they last claimed it in 2015. The unstoppable trio of Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi drove them to victory that season and it feels like Barcelona finally have a forward line capable of doing the same.

Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski and Raphinha have the quality to tear any defence apart on their day; they are one of Europe’s form teams.

 

2) Liverpool
We’re still not entirely sure if they’ve played a proper team yet and they’re making hard work of beating the improper teams of late, but they were faultless in the group stage before the dead-rubber against PSV Eindhoven and few would deny they’ve been the best team in Europe this season.

READ MORE: Will Liverpool’s now surely inevitable Premier League title failure be a true bottle job or mere collapse?

 

1) Real Madrid
Quite hard to tell exactly how good they are on the basis of their play-off victory because Manchester City were a load of balls in that second leg, and the fact that the 15-time winners required a play-off raised doubts they could go again. But guys, it’s Real Madrid. They get it done.

Kylian Mbappe is Kylian Mbappe again and the genius Carlo Ancelotti appears to have worked out how to get all four of his ludicrous forwards into the same team while maintaining some sort of structure and defensive order.

F365 Features