Ranking Championship top six on how likely they are to sink in Premier League

Lewis Oldham
Premier League promotion Championship
Chris Wilder, Daniel Farke and Scott Parker are vying for promotion to the Premier League.

Here’s our ranking of the Championship top six based on the likelihood of them *not* threatening to break Derby County’s record low points tally (a la Southampton)…

 

A Premier League record that once seemed unbreakable is under threat this season; bottom-placed Southampton are at risk of taking Derby County’s mantle as the side with the lowest points total in the division’s history.

Sixteen seasons have passed since Derby finished the 2007/08 campaign with an embarrassing 11 points, but the Saints are threatening to set a new low as sack-threatened Ivan Juric‘s side have just six points.

The Saints *should* pass Derby’s total, but it could be mightily close if their woes continue in the coming months as they look set to go down with a whimper.

Ipswich Town are putting up a better fight than Leicester City but there still remains the possibility that all three promoted clubs are relegated once again.

The gap between the Premier League and the Championship is clearly widening, as the top division is increasingly becoming a closed shop amid its competitors’ growing financial might. To make matters worse, the current crop contending for promotion from the second tier are unlikely to buck this trend.

Still, there are some grounds for optimism for the Championship top six, who we have ranked (from most to least likely) to follow Southampton in rolling over and having their bellies tickled en route to an inevitable relegation next season…

 

6) Blackburn Rovers
Rovers elbowed West Brom out of the top six on Wednesday night, beating second-bottom Portsmouth 3-0 in their game in hand.

Like another team that features in this ranking, Blackburn are surpassing all expectations this season as they were pegged as certain relegation candidates before a ball was kicked.

Top scorer Sammie Szmodics almost single-handedly saved Blackburn from relegation last season and his summer move to Ipswich Town threatened to ruin their 2024/25 campaign before it even began.

But John Eustace (as he did with Birmingham City) has been working miracles at Ewood Park as his side have gatecrashed the promotion picture.

Eustace (like former West Brom boss Carlos Corberan) is a master at getting the maximum out of a limited squad. At Birmingham, he leant on making his side difficult to beat and this has also been the case with Blackburn, but they have also delivered in attacking areas despite the loss of Szmodics.

Eustace is doing a remarkable job and it would be great to finally have Blackburn back in the Premier League, but it would be a fleeting comeback as they are not yet prepared for a return to the top flight and would be on the end of a fair few hammerings if they go up.

READ: Eight Championship predictions in 2025 include Leeds United becoming champions, Lampard failing

 

5) Middlesbrough
While West Brom peaked too soon, Boro have steadily risen under former Manchester United midfielder Michael Carrick, who has fared much better in the Championship than Wayne Rooney.

Middlesbrough were mooted as promotion favourites during pre-season, though their sluggish start may force them to rely on the play-offs to secure a return to the Premier League as they sit 11 points adrift of the automatic places.

Carrick’s men have been among the Championship’s Entertainers this season, which is largely thanks to the supreme partnership of Finn Azaz and Emmanuel Latte Lath in attack.

But they are reliant on loans as Liverpool’s Ben Doak (who could be set for AFC Bournemouth) and Ipswich Town’s George Edmundson have shone in the Championship this season and these short-term solutions create a longer-term problem.

Boro would need to copy Nottingham Forest’s transfer strategy if they secure promotion with huge investment needed to bridge the quality gap, but this rarely pays off and it would be hard to see Carrick’s side re-establishing themselves in the Premier League at the first time of asking.

 

4) Burnley
While putting second-placed Burnley in this position may surprise some, it will be less surprising for those who have paid much attention to their progress following last season’s relegation.

The prolonged process of replacing Bayern Munich’s Vincent Kompany resulted in the Clarets appointing Scott Parker, a manager who has previously earned promotion with Fulham and AFC Bournemouth.

Based on this, you can understand why Burnley’s board decided to appoint Parker, but he’s previously benefited from comfortably having the best squad in the Championship as Fulham and Bournemouth went up despite their manager, who was carried along for the ride.

It’s a familiar story with Burnley, whose supporters have not been buying Parker with his pragmatic approach. His tactics are not sexy, but they comfortably have the best defence in the Championship having only conceded nine goals in 26 matches.

This strong defence would boost Burnley in the Premier League, but Parker’s already been found out in the league above (especially during the sorry end to his stint at Bournemouth) and their alarming lack of a goal threat does not bode well.

MORE CHAMPIONSHIP COVERAGE ON F365…
👉 Sheff Weds flop, Rooney’s goal-shy striker and Leeds starlet – Every Champ club’s worst player in 24/25
👉 Six Championship stars you thought had retired include Chelsea PL winner, ex-Tottenham pair

 

3) Sunderland
Sunderland are following in Ipswich Town’s footsteps as this season’s surprise automatic promotion candidates as they are ahead of schedule under head coach Regis Le Bris.

The Black Cats have the lowest average age (23.2) of any Championship side this season, which is mainly thanks to them having the best academy in the Football League.

Teenagers Chris Rigg and Tom Watson are enjoying breakout seasons, while Anthony Paterson (24), Trai Hume (22), Dennis Cirkin (22) and Dan Neil (23) are further along in their development but still have room to grow.

Sunderland’s recruitment has also been superb and ambitious, as proven by the recent loan signing of AS Roma’s Enzo Le Fee, whose deal will become permanent for around £19m if they get promoted. As statement January signings go, this is about as good as you get.

Should Sunderland retain their core group, they are perhaps best positioned of these six sides to stay in the Premier League for the long term, though their inexperience and potential naivety is worrying. Failure to go up this season could be a blessing in disguise for the youthful Black Cats before they march to the title in 2025/26.

READ: Bellingham, Leeds United winger among Championship stars who cannot be sold by top six in January

 

2) Sheffield United
I foolishly wrote Chris Wilder off in the summer
as my judgment was clouded by Sheff Utd’s dire 2023/24 season and his underwhelming spells at Watford and Middlesbrough.

But Wilder has silenced his naysayers by bringing the good times back to Bramall Lane as they would top the Championship were it not for their two-point deduction.

When you’re contending for promotion, a rock-solid defence rather than a dangerous attack is preferred; the Blades certainly have the former, while they have more bite in forward areas than Burnley.

A flurry of late summer deals sent a shiver down the spine of Sheff United’s promotion rivals, and their eagerly-awaited takeover (which was recently finalised) surely affords them a sturdier platform to build upon if they return to the Premier League. They would not be forced to sell Ollie Arblaster and Gustavo Hamer in a repeat of the Sander Berge and Iliman Ndiaye mess.

 

1) Leeds United
Leeds can consider themselves incredibly unlucky to miss out on promotion last year as having four teams of similar quality finish on 87+ points apiece is incredibly rare.

As a result of a poor run-in, Daniel Farke’s side were among the unfortunate pair to miss out on automatic promotion to Leicester City and Ipswich Town before they came up short at Wembley against Southampton.

It was a stomach-churning couple of months for Leeds supporters, who were made to feel even worse as they cashed in on Archie Gray, Crysencio Summerville and Georginio Rutter.

Despite this, they still entered this season with the firm favourites for promotion, which shows how strong Leeds (and their three direct rivals) were last season and how severe the drop in quality has been at the top of the Championship in one year.

Like the other five teams mentioned, Leeds United would be up against it in the Premier League as this has become the norm for Championship sides. But their £100m+ summer profit will allow the board to strongly back Farke and make an already strong squad capable of achieving survival.