Greece vs Scotland: Prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
Greece and Scotland clash in the first of a two-legged Nations League tie at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium on Thursday, with the Greeks plotting to steal the Scots’ League A status.
A win for Scotland will see them retain their League A status while defeat over two legs means Greece will leave Group B behind and join the Auld Enemy in the top tier.
This is, at least on paper, a must-win match for Steve Clarke’s side. On the other hand, you might not care because the Nations League is just putting lipstick on a pig.
If you Google the Nations League you’ll notice one of the most asked questions is ‘Does the Nations League matter?’
Granted, it’s added a level of jeopardy and intrigue to the otherwise monotonous international breaks that used to feature such classics as San Marino 0-0 Gibraltar.
Now we get to dangle off the edge of our seats in suspense as we wait to see if either San Marino or Gibraltar can score and go above Liechtenstein in the table.
In its defence, it has allowed The Tartan Army to test themselves against sides such as Croatia, Poland and Portugal in the past six months, which should inturn improve their competitiveness in qualifying and at major tournaments.
Seven points from six meetings with the aforementioned sides represents a solid return for the Scots.
The Greeks have lost just three of 23 home matches dating back to 2020 so it’s clear that a stern test awaits Clarke and his men in Piraeus.
Clarke has major decisions to make in every area of the pitch with many high-profile absentees and the temptation to start debutants like George Hirst or Tommy Conway.
Greece team news
Ivan Jovanovic has called up 27 players to his Nations League squad and we suspect he’ll start 11 of them on Thursday.
The majority may not be household names to Premier League fans but there are some familiar faces, with Newcastle’s third-choice goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos, Liverpool’s Kostas Tsimikas, and West Ham defender Konstantinos Mavropanos.
Left-sided attacker Christos Tzolis enjoyed a good Champions League campaign for Club Brugge, assisting or scoring against Aston Vila, Atalanta and Sturm Graz.
PAOK’s Dimitris Pelkas and Vfl Bochum’s Giorgos Masouras may get the nod alongside Tzolis in the attacking midfield roles.
Benfica’s Vangelis Pavlidis has 28 goal involvements this season and has recently been linked with a move to the Premier League.
Greece expected line-up
(4-2-3-1) Vlachodimos – Rota, Mavropanos, Koulierakis, Tsimikas – Mantalos, Siopis – Masouras, Pelkas, Tzolis – Pavlidis
Scotland team news
Angus Gunn’s absence opens the door for the experienced Craig Gordon between the sticks, though Rangers back-up Liam Kelly will be considered.
Kieran Tierney’s return presents nice problems, such as can him and Andy Robertson fit into the same team, while Anthony Ralston and Max Johnston are also in contention.
We’re used to seeing a 4-2-3-1 from Clarke but that may not be the case on Thursday with five centre-backs and versatile full-backs at his disposal.
Billy Gilmour, John McGinn, Kenny McClean and Scott McTominay are the most likely to feature in midfield and provide the steel and experience needed for such a fixture.
Che Adams is likely to continue up front in the absence of Lyndon Dykes and Lawrence Shankland, but he faces competition from Kevin Nisbet, Conway, Hirst, and Hearts’ 18-year-old debutant James Wilson.
Scotland expected line-up
(3-4-2-1) Gordon – Ralston, Souttar, Hanley, Tierney, Robertson – Gilmour, McLean – McTominay, McGinn, – Adams
Greece vs Scotland: How to watch and listen
You can watch the match on BBC One Scotland, BBC iPlayer and the BBC website. There will be full match commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live.
Greece vs Scotland stats:
The most recent meetings between the side were in 1995 and 1994, when Scotland put themselves in pole position to qualify for the European Championships ahead of Greece by beating them 1-0 at Hampden Park, despite losing the reverse fixture 1-0 in Athens.
Greece are unbeaten in 20 of 23 home matches since 2020.
Their only defeat this campaign came against England (3-0).
At least one team has failed to score in seven of Greece’s last 10 competitive home fixtures.
Andy Robertson’s 93rd-minute winner relegated Poland and sent Scotland into the play-offs by the skin of their teeth.
Scotland have conceded in nine of 11 competitive fixtures away from home soil.
Steve Clarke (Scotland) quotes
On opponents Greece:
“They are a good team. They defend well and don’t give many goals away. They score goals, are good defensively, can play through the middle, really good on counter-attacks, their away performances particularly catch the eye.
“Any team that goes to Wembley and beats England is always going to catch your eye. We expect two tough games.”#
On the importance of 2025 for Scotland:
“World Cup qualification is always a big year. Come the autumn those games are massive. We all understand how much everybody in the country wants to go to a World Cup. Before we get there there are also big games.
“The players worked ever so hard in the Nations League section, it took us a bit of time to find our feet in the group but we finished the group well.
“We want to build on that. Stay at the top level and be competitive against the top teams. To do that we are going to have to beat a good Greece side over two games.”
On his future as manager:
“Whether they progress with me as head coach or not, it is really important we see a little glimpse of what the future might be.
“What we don’t want is to have this little spell where we have qualified for a few tournaments and then suddenly we go another twenty years without qualifying. That would be a disaster for the country.”
On Kieran Tierney and Lewis Ferguson returning:
“It is always good to get your good players back. Both of them are very good players. They have been unlucky with injury. Fingers crossed they can come back and have an injury-free year and help us to stay in the Nations League and qualify for the World Cup.
“Those are the two objectives for the campaign – to stay in the top flight of the Nations League and qualify for the World Cup.”
On calling up James Wilson and Lennon Miller:
“Obviously there have been a lot of call-offs, a lot of injuries, especially in the middle to forward areas.
“I just felt it was a chance to have a look at two young boys who have caught the eye, Lennon over the last 18 months and James over the last six months.
“It is a chance to have a look at them in the squad, see how they fit in. They are two for the future, but they can also help us just now.”
Greece vs Scotland referee stats:
German referee Tobias Stieler will have the whistle for Thursday’s clash in Piraeus, where he’ll take charge of his 11th international fixture.
Primarily a Bundesliga referee having worked his way up the ranks in Germany, Stieler took charge of Liverpool’s 3-2 defeat to PSV this season, Aston Villa’s 1-0 loss to Club Brugge, and Man United’s 3-3 draw with Porto.
He seems to have a weird relationship with cards, producing a low average of 3.26 yellows across 191 Bundesliga fixtures, yet he’s found a way to send 57 players off in his career, producing a red card in 20% of games he’s officiated.
Scotland will settle for a repeat scoreline of Stieler’s most recent international assignment which saw France draw 0-0 with Israel in November.
Greece vs Scotland prediction:
England, France and the Netherlands are the only sides to score in Greece since June 2023, which shows it takes a touch of quality to break the Greeks down.
Their historic win over the Auld Enemy at Wembley shows how much of a threat they are at the opposite end, so Steve Clarke’s side needs to prioritise being defensively sound.
Setting up in a 3-4-2-1 is all the rage these days but you can see the logic ahead of this fixture, and we think it’ll contribute to a tightly-contested, low-scoring match.
It would appear the visitors’ best chance of finding a goal will be to catch the Greeks out early before they can build up a head of steam and settle into a rhythm.
